Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (2/13/19)
Huge slate tonight with a lot of different ways to go where ownership should be fairly spread out. My core has been on fire of late so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night. I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.
Top GPP Plays:
Damian Lillard: After a fantastic night last night where I had multiple builds of Young + Prince + Bullock + Embiid + LeBron, I was able to walk away with a decent chunk of change which will allow me to take some shots on this slate tonight. After reviewing the slate last night before bed and checking out the pricing Dame Dolla stood out to me immediately. Now after checking out all the projection systems/data-dashboard and actually digging into his stats, my love for Lillard on this slate is only reaffirmed. Lillard is just on an insane stretch from a fantasy perspective averaging near 1.4fp/min over the last month. These are the types of games he shows up for and the Warriors likely won’t be 100% on defense with it being the second leg of a B2B.
Marcus Smart: Smart was the right process play last night but just the wrong result where he shot 3/14 from the field and 0/8 from three-point land. With Rozier AND Irving out tonight, the peripherals are going to spike for Smart and we get a $100 decrease in salary from last night. There likely will be a ton of value opening up with their being eleven games on this slate but the Celtics could be a team that getting exposure to is key to a big night.
Top GPP Plays:
- David Nwaba: This is the type of 2% value play that could help you bink a GPP. I was analyzing pricing a ton last night as I said and Nwaba stood out to me right away and it seems I was on the right track after digging in deeper today. The Nets have been playing at one of the highest paces in the NBA of late and I don’t really expect a lot of defense to be played in this game. At just 3.8k projected for more minutes than the 5.3k Jordan Clarkson, I want to be overexposed to Nwaba today.
- Bradley Beal: Beal is a bit of a steal on Draftkings at 8.7k compared to 9.7 on Fanduel. Beal has been on fire since Wall has been out averaging 1.25 FP/min over HEAVY minutes for the Wizards. It should be all of the same tonight where Beal is locked in a tie for Harden with the highest projected minutes at the position while seeing a top 10 usage rate for SG eligible players on the slate. This 232 total is massive and the Raptors should be playing less quality defense of Kawhi misses.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jayson Tatum: The other Celtic Ill be prioritizing tonight is Jayson Tatum who sees one of the largest increases in production and efficiency with Irving and Rozier out. Tatum gets a 7.4% usage increase with those two off the court and sees his fantasy production jump to 1.3 FP/min compared to his season average of 1 FP/min with a 21.8% usage rate. Tatum should be in for a usage rate over 25% tonight if this trend continues and has a ton of upside at his 6.1k price on Draftkings.
- Andre Iguadola: Iggy has quietly been producing of late where his fantasy production is up .17 FP/min over his season average which is a MAJOR increase. Iggy is currently priced at 3.8k and now will likely get some extended time on the floor with Cousins out + Klay potentially limited after dislocating his finger last night against the Jazz. Iggy loves to show up in these big games and tonight’s going to be fairly large with a nationally televised game against the Blazers on ESPN. He will likely end up under 5% owned with upside of 8x or more if things really go his way.
Top GPP Plays:
- Montrezl Harrell: Harrell’s minutes have come down a bit but he still has that same 50+ DK point capability especially with the departure of Tobias Harris. He’s essentially maintained a similair role as before the trade but has seen a big price drop off. After hitting for a huge 47 DK points in increased minutes against the Timberwolves, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t given extended run tonight against a similarly weak Suns defensive frontcourt. Although Harrell hasn’t been doing what he was earlier in the season, he isn’t priced like it on Draftkings and I want to buy low.
- Paul Millsap: Although Millsap likely won’t be getting a ton of minutes tonight i his return he should be getting around 23-26. This isn’t drastically different to what he was doing before missing a few games but now we’re getting a huge price discount where he’s just 4.7k. A 6x+ game is a real capability for Millsap tonight who has the ability to produce at more than a fantasy point per minute. A massive pace up game with Sacramento could be just what it takes to get Millsap to a big game.
Top GPP Plays:
- Nikola Jokic: Center is loaded today and where I’m spending up at both the C position (duh) and the UTIL position tonight on Draftkings. There is no one on the Kings that will be able to slow down the Joker, who is priced very fairly at 10.1k, and now gets a massive pace up game which he should thrive in. Coming off 2 days of rest I have no concerns about his stamina tonight and we should see 35+ minutes. A 1.72 FP/min scorer over the past month should dominate this game. Calling the triple-double now.
- Joel Embiid: With so much value at other position’s I’m fine paying over 10k for two centers tonight. Embiid is not a minute’s concern either on the second half of a back to back where he has not been limited this season in similair situations. Embiid started slowly last night but finished over 50 DK points for the 11th time in his last 12 games. Pretty incredible stuff and you really only have to pay a little over 10.6k for a guy who should be priced over 11 given his insane consistency. The Knicks are one of the weakest defensive teams in the game and Embiid should be showing out at the Garden.
Written By: Robert Viafora
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage