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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (2/8/19)

Decent 8 game slate tonight.  If you were on my core plays yesterday (which you can access under products) you had a huge night where we essentially had the Draftkings nuts outside of Evans. We’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today.  Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Eric Bledsoe: People are going to underrate how great a spot this is with Middleton out.  For starters, Bledsoe leads the Bucks with a +5.2% usage differential with Middleton off the court.  Second, the Bucks have been playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA over their last fifteen games so I’m expecting a lot of points in this one.  Bledsoe is underpriced given the Middleton situation and will be under 20% owned tonight.  He’s essentially my favorite play on the slate for leverage and upside in GPPs.
  2. D’Angelo Russell: People have come off Russell for some reason but even with LeVert back for likely 10-15 minutes tonight, Russell has a usage projection over 30% and has been on fire of late with fantasy production over 1.4 points per minute over the last month.  8.2k is still a steal for Russell who dropped over 50 DK points against this same Bulls team just a few games ago.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Tim Hardaway Jr.:  Keep a close eye on the status of Luka Doncic who obviously would provide a major usage and minutes bump to THJ if he ends up getting ruled out (currently questionable).  We were on Hardaway in his last game for the Mavs and although he didn’t post a significant score he still hit value.  He essentially saw the same minutes/usage he saw for the Knicks except he was priced 1k+ cheaper than his average price for the Knicks.  With the value opening up on this Mavericks team he could end up being a lock tonight for me in all formats.  Currently, his projected ownership is under 15%.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Luke Kennard: Obviously, Stanley Johnson is gone from this rotation and now we get to see Luke Kennard featured in the starting lineup which may actually do him good.  The former first-round pick still has got some upside to his game and should get a ton of open shots against Knicks defense with Drummond and Griffin collapsing the defense inside.  3.5k is a steal for a guy who is shown he is capable of producing when given the minutes (see January 18th vs the Heat – 22/3/3).
  2. Justise Winslow: Point Winslow has not got as much hype in NBA DFS as it should have where he posted some huge scores and reached a price range over 7k on Draftkings.  After a cold stretch for Winslow from the field, his price has plummeted to 5.5k while essentially in the same exact role as before.  These are situations I always capitalize on in NBA DFS and will make sure to have exposure to Winslow tonight against a big pace up game with the Kings.  The total is at 217 but I’m taking the over in this one and saying the Heat get some offense going with Winslow.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Maxi Kleber: This is purely a pivot/leverage play.  Dwight Powell is the stone lock chalk tonight at 4.4k where he’s projected to play close to 30 minutes for the Mavericks.  However, although a lower projected usage rate, Kleber is projected for more minutes, in the starting lineup, and half the ownership of Powell.  I don’t mind if you have both of these guys in your lineup but from a game theory perspective in larger field tournaments, it would be the sharper play to get Kleber into your lineups.
  2. Anthony Davis: Anthony Davis projected for less than 15% ownership?  Sign me up.  People are going to be terrified to play Davis tonight but I believe there will be a bit of a narrative where Davis comes out balling to show Pelicans fans (it’s a home game), he’s not going to quit on the team because things didn’t work out.  Davis is priced extremely reasonably at 11.2k and doesn’t take much analysis to know what we’re getting when we plug him into our lineups.  A slate breaking score is always possible with AD.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. DeAndre Ayton: Cousins has looked a bit slower since coming back from injury and really doesn’t try much on the defensive end of the floor.  With him matched up with DeAndre Ayton tonight in the interior, he could be in for some trouble.  I’m not factoring in a blowout here as I think the Suns +15 is a solid bet, however, you have to be aware that the blowout potential is essentially the highest on the slate and Ayton could lose 4th Q minutes.  In nonblowouts at this price point however Ayton seemingly always hits value while giving us that 50 DK ceiling we like out of our centers and players priced below 7k.  I also don’t mind coming back with Boogie the other way who puts all his effort on the offensive end and is still an extremely skilled player.  Stiff Ayton will likely have trouble defending him tonight.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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