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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (3/12/19)

Looking like a pretty chalky seven-gamer tonight so let’s all keep an eye on late news and make sure to lock in the must plays. My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.  I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Kris Dunn:  The Bulls are going to be fairly popular tonight but Dunn may be one of the overlooked of the bunch.  With Collin Sexton projecting over 25% we can make a fantastic pivot to Dunn who has an equally great opportunity tonight.  The pace for both the Cavs and Bulls are up but Dunn gets the better actual matchup against a weak defensive Lakers team.  Dunn has been cold of late but we know what he is capable of doing.  I would not advise fading Sexton tonight but including Dunn in your lineups and pivoting off of him in larger field GPPs seems to be a sharp approach to the mid-tier PG position tonight.
  2. Darren Collison: If you have the extra salary I would actually prefer paying up to Darren Collison where he has been on fire of late averaging over 1.05 FP/min since Oladipo went down for the Pacers.  Players, especially those from Indiana, love getting a chance to shine in the bright lights of NYC and I expect big things from Collison tonight as the Pacers are fighting for playoff positioning.  These games still matter and I expect much of the same of what we’ve seen from Collison.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Gary Harris: Ryan Arcidicano is going to be the mega-chalk and someone you probably don’t want to miss in your lineups with LaVine out.  With that being said, I do like this price for Gary Harris who is a much more talented player who may see a few less minutes on the floor than Ryan but will see a much higher usage rate to make up for it.  Harris’s ceiling is higher here and although, much like Sexton, I do not advise fading Arcidiacono in your lineups I do like making the Gary Harris pivot in GPPs.
  2. DeMar DeRozan: No one is talking about paying up at SG tonight with a lot of mouth-watering value plays, but on DK where so many of these guys are multi-position eligible it allows us to also get exposure to someone like DeRozan who is priced appropriately with a massive ceiling in an up pace game against Dallas.  DeRozan has been averaging over 1.2 FP/min over the past few weeks which really shows he’s locked in and not slowing down in this final season stretch.  The Spurs backcourt as a whole is in a great spot tonight in Dallas.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Dorian Finney-Smith (Punt):  I find myself very high on this punt play and even higher if we get news on Doncic which could ultimately flip this entire slate on its head.  With that being said, Finney-Smith is locked in for over 25 minutes regardless at 3.3k on Draftkings, an absolute bargain.  He hasn’t posted a usage rate under 10% in almost two months while we’ve seen spikes above 20% at times.  His contributions in peripheral categories really give him a solid floor and when he puts together a decent shooting % night he crushes value.  I love this spot with Doncic IN and would be a lock if Doncic ultimately gets ruled out.
  2. Danilo Gallinari: Gallinari has been on a tear of late exceeding value in five straight games, one of which we were on him for (last night where he put up over 35 DK points).  Tonight he is the clear pivot off of the chalk, Otto Porter, where almost everything looks better on Gallinari’s side.  Although we’re paying a couple more hundred for Gallinari, he is going to see a higher usage rate (even with LaVine out), he’s much more of a reliable player (Porter chalk seems way too volatile for me to be overexposed too), and he is averaging 1.25 FP/min since the Tobias Harris trade showing how elite he can be.  The Clippers want to make the playoffs BAD and I doubt they just want the 8 seed to be matched up with the Warriors.  Gallinari should be locked in for heavy minutes tonight, especially after getting a light load with the blowout against the Celtics.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Mortiz Wagner: The ownership levels will liekly be higher where they project right now but judging off his last game, Wagner can play and he has a ceiling if he’s getting minutes.  I can’t ignore a guy who hit for nearly 12x when getting starters minutes still priced below 3.5k.
  2. Anthony Davis: No one with a sane mind is going to play Anthony Davis.  However, we’re looking for outside the box plays like this in GPPs and even in 20-22 minutes per game Davis has a crazy high ceiling.  He is producing an insane 1.8 fantasy points per minutes since this fiasco started and doesn’t seem to be slowing down with usage rates consistently around 30% per game. The Bucks frontcourt is one you want to target and I’m taking my first shot on AD tonight since this whole thing started.  I believe it will pay off.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Nikola Jokic: Center is going to be extremely popular/chalky as usual so I’m going to differentiate a bit and get a ton of exposure to Jokic in a fantastic matchup against one of the league’s worst interior defenders, KAT.  Jokic has historically bullied this team and I really love the flat 10k price we get Jokic at tonight.  The pace, matchup, and home game all set up for a huge Joker game and it doesn’t seem anyone is going to play him as they lock in the Cavs Ante Zicic.
  2. Ivica Zubac: If you’re looking to pivot off of Zicic, Zubac is easily the better player and although we’re paying a slight premium it really isn’t crazy to think the Zicic won’t hit his minute’s projection tonight.  I will agree it’s tough not to have him in 100% of your lineups, especially on Draftkings, but double center seems to be the wave tonight and likely will be that way across all my builds.  Zubac has a ton of upside if he can get 25 minutes.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

  1. Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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