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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (3/14/19)

Yesterdays slate ended up being pretty sloppy so I’m looking forward to a cleaner set of games today even though we have some pretty large spreads to deal with which may end up complicating things. My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.  I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jamal Murray:  For $800 more on Draftkings tonight is priced De’Aaron Fox who has almost exactly the same analytics tonight as Jamal Murray.  There is really no reason not to have Murray in your lineup tonight at this price point over Fox. Over the past month they have been equivalent in fantasy production and while Fox sees 1-2 more MPG, Murray sees a 1-2% higher usage rate which essentially balances out the two.  Murray has the better matchup tonight against the tiny Jalen Brunson and this is actually a pace up game for the Nuggets.  Murray is going for his 10th straight game with double digit shot attempts and should be en route to another +EV game tonight.
  2. Corey Joseph (Pivot SZN off Monte Morris): Monte Morris is likely going to be ultra chalk today and I love him as a play on Draftkings.  I’ll have a ton of exposure.  It is unlikely however people pair this extremely bargain play with other players priced in the same price point with a similair range of outcomes.  A pivot off of Morris makes sense in large-field tournaments but if you are in a single entry contest I do like pairnig Morris up with other cheap guards like Corey Joseph and using the extra salary to pay up at the center and forward positions tonight.  Joseph is going to see essentially the same amount of minutes + usage rate as Morris in a pace up game and can easily go for 6-7x.  I’ll make sure to have exposure in addition to Morris in my lineups.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Bojan Bogdanovic: This man has been on an absolute tear since Oladipo went down and opportunity presented itself to the other Pacer players.  Bojan has posted ELEVEN straight games exceeding value and 14 out of his last 15.  Bogdanovic has been a fanatsy beat and just on a scoring tear.  This upside should be here tonight where he is still reasonably priced at 6.2k on Draftkings.  His ceiling exceeds 50 DK ponits.
  2. Brandon Knight (Pivot off Corey Joseph):  So if you don’t want to play Corey Joseph, Brandon Knight has a ton of upside when he gets minutes.  This Cavs team is looking to lose so we can expect some big time minutes for Knight in the 25-27 minute range.  A historically moderate usage player should easily be able to post a higher score tonight when taking double digit shot attempts.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Gordan Hayward: No one is going to want to play Hayward with Tatum back, especially after he completely failed as chalk in one of his best spots on the season.  With Tatum back, he likely will see slightly less minutes and a lower usage rate than he would have had the game against the Clippers.  Hayward was acstually having an efficient shooting night and probably would have performed fine had the C’s not lost by 25 points.  His shot seems to be back and he is just way too cheap on Draftkings tonight.  I expect a big game from Hayward in the second highest total on the slate.
  2. Luka Doncic (Pivot of Kawhi Leonard): Leonard is going to be the chalk at SF and I do think he is a fantastic play, one of the best on the slate that you need to prioritize in cash games.  A perfect GPP pivot thought would be to Luka Doncic who still put up 30 DK points in one of his worst shooting nights on the season.  The boards and assits are there for Doncic every single night and when his shot is on he’s going to continue to post huge DK scores.  As long as Doncic plays tonight he has a 50+ DK point ceiling and will be likely under 15% owned.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Aaron Gordon: A little bit of recency bias comes in here where Gordon barely scraped to value last night against the Wizards at some pretty moderate ownerhsip.  Tonight he’s likely to be lower owned, potentially in the single-digits, but maintains the same ceiling and reasoning so many people played him last night.  The peiphrials have really been there as he is a high contributor in rebounds and around 5 assists per game over the past few weeks.  With his high shot attempts per game I don’t see a reason why we wouldn’t want over exposure to him in a spot he could absolutey smash against the Cavs who rank 18th in defensive rating against forwards this season.
  2. Dorian Finney-Smith (Pivot off Maxi Kleber): Kleber is definitely the better/safer play here and the reason he’s going to be so high in cash games and likely GPP contests.  However, Finney-Smith projects for equivalent minutes + usage, while other factors are extremely similair considering these two are playing in the same game.  With Finney-Smith at SF and Kleber at PF/C, obviously the higher usage rate for Kleber is a bigger boost to his value than for Finney-Smith.  With that being said, there are outcomes tonight in which Kleber busts as he really needs 23-25 DK points to hit GPP value.  I’m fine taking Finney-Smith over Kleber in GPPs at 1/4th the ownership level.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Nikola Vucevic: Vucevic is one of my top plays on the slate.  While I likely won’t have him paired with Gordon too much, Vucevic is the better option and someone I’d be priotirzing in my builds tonight at center.  Center is stacked with ownership above Vucevic between Gasol, Kleber, Siakam, Gobert, Jokic, and Towns.  Vuc seemingly always goes under owned meanwhile he is third on the slate in fantasy production over the last month AND over the season, at center, around 1.5, with just Towns and Jokic out producing him.  You need to pay $800-1000 more to get to those guys tonight and it really isn’t worth it.  Jokic seems slightly overpriced for his minutes projection and Towns is facing Gobert.  Vuc will potentially be the lowest owned of the three with the highest ceiling tonight.  I’ll be HEAVILY exposed.
  2. JaVale McGee (Pivot off Ante Zicic): McGee has a much higher ceiling than Zicic, end of story.  However, his minutes are extremely volatile and we usually don’t know what we’re going to get from night to night.  I’m willing to take on that risk for McGee where he can post a 10x game at 4.3k on Draftkings, if given 25+ minutes.  Zicic not so much.  McGee gets the better matchup tonight and obviously produces fantasy points at a much higher rate.  For half the ownership leverage in GPPs go McGee over Zicic if that is a price range you are considering at center.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

  1. Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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