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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Monday 04/06/2020

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! If you are a returning reader I thank you for the support I really appreciate the read! We have reached day 26 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch.

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:

     PG: Ben Simmons 84.4

     SG: Zach Lavine 73.70

     SF: Brandon Ingram 66.60

     PF: Kawhi Leonard 68.20

     C: Joel Embiid 78.30

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

    PG: Shaq Harrison 14.51x and Shake Milton 14.19x

    SG: Furkan Kormaz 13.77x and Gary Payton II 13.77x

    SF: Troy Brown 12.69x and Caleb Martin 11.58x

    PF: Lauri Markkanen 11.40x and Eric Paschall 11.22x

    C: Gorgui Dieng 14.15x and Moritz Wagner 14.10x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Ben Simmons (84.4 fantasy points), Kyrie Irving (73.1 fantasy points)

SG: Zach Lavine (73.7 fantasy points), Alec Burks (62.4 fantasy points)

SF: Marcus Morris (60.5 fantasy points), Andrew Wiggins (65.5 fantasy points)

PF: Jarret Allen (63.7 fantasy points), Lauri Markkanen (60.4 fantasy points)

C: Jahlil Okafor (57.3 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 601 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 30.6 (Jordan Poole), 1Q: 44.4, Median: 50.8, Mean: 50.6, 3Q: 55.8, Max: 84.4

  1. Ben Simmons 84.40
  2. Kyrie Irving 73.10
  3. Spencer Dinwiddie 62.50
  4. Malcolm Brogdon 57.10
  5. Ja Morant 57.00

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.570 (Landry Shamet), 1Q: 9.185, Median: 10.310, Mean: 10.387, 3Q: 11.300, Max: 14.420 (Kyrie Irving)

  • There are 2 Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Chris Paul (9.11), and Markelle Fultz (8.15). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
  • Tonight’s slate has a range of 4 cheap guys under $4000 salary and over 10 SD. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Shake Milton (13.30), Shaq Harrison (12.56), Ky Bowman (11.27), Aaron Holiday (10.36).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 34% (Shaq Harrison), 1Q: 46.50%, Median: 50%, Mean: 48.93%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 55% (Ish Smith)

6x%: Min: 18% (Ben Simmons), 1Q: 28%, Median: 32%, Mean: 30.74%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 39% (Coby White)

  • The studs to pay up for:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Kyrie Irving950046.1321.8073.1014.420.460.230.08
Ben Simmons910042.959.2084.4012.920.420.180.05
Chris Paul730036.029.4055.009.110.480.200.05
Spencer Dinwiddie710035.0012.7062.5010.620.480.240.08

 

  • These are the best value 5x%:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Ish Smith450023.873.2056.6010.100.550.380.23
Coby White420022.366.2047.2010.650.550.390.25
Malcolm Brogdon630032.872.0057.1011.270.550.330.16
Kris Dunn430022.395.2043.309.450.540.360.21
Markelle Fultz510026.2010.7051.208.150.530.290.12
Shabazz Napier450023.454.5052.3011.330.530.380.24
Ja Morant630032.408.7057.0011.570.530.320.16
Tomas Satoransky480024.785.7050.1010.050.530.340.19
  • Ish Smith and Coby White are the two best value options for PG tonight.
  • While Ja Morant and Malcolm Brogdan are in amazing spots for their salary

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 36.10 (Cody Martin), 1Q: 44.08, Median: 49.55, Mean: 52.40, 3Q: 60.15, Max: 73.70

  1. Zach Lavine 73.2
  2. Bradley Beal 69.20
  3. Jrue Holiday 65.30
  4. Caris Levert 63.30
  5. Alec Burks 62.40

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.90 (Terrence Ross), 1Q: 9.37, Median: 9.85, Mean: 10.18, 3Q: 11.00, Max: 13.37 (Caris LeVert)

  • There are 2 players over $5000 to have an SD under 10 Dennis Schroder (9.61), and Evan Fournier (8.00)
  • There are 2 players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Gary Payton (12.14), and Malik Monk (10.95)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 33% (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 46.25%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.77%, 3Q: 53.75%, Max: 56% (Tyler Herro)

6x%: Min: 13% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 26%, Median: 29.50%, Mean: 28.86%, 3Q: 34%, Max: 37% (Tyler Herro)

  • We have 6 guys to pay up for tonight.
James Harden1120055.9927.182.6013.930.500.210.05
Bradley Beal1000046.3120.969.2012.010.380.130.02
Jimmy Butler860041.421163.709.940.440.150.03
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.308.870.530.220.05
Khris Middleton700035.2821.270.009.990.510.250.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander700034.5210.260.0010.120.480.230.08
  • Tyler Herro is the best value play on the board for SG today.
  • If you were looking to spend up at SG, DeMar DeRozan offers a safe play with limited upside.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Tyler Herro390021.382.539.7010.140.570.420.28
Josh Richardson480025.535.442.809.740.560.370.20
Marcus Smart570030.081.666.0011.410.560.360.19
Donte DiVincenzo430022.49-141.908.500.550.350.19
Bruce Brown450023.57151.8010.290.540.370.22
Duncan Robinson400020.681.246.608.820.530.350.20
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.308.870.530.220.05

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.90 (Nicolas Batum), 1Q: 37.98, Median: 44.65, Mean: 46.54, 3Q: 56.48, Max: 66.60

  1. Brandon Ingram 66.60
  2. Andrew Wiggins 65.50
  3. Paul George 62.50
  4. Marcus Morris 60.50
  5. Jonathan Isaac 58.50

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.990 (Danilo Gallinari) , 1Q: 8.180, Median: 9.430, Mean: 9.557, 3Q: 10.465, Max: 13.150 (Gordon Hayward)

  • Caleb Martin (12.67) and Kenrich Williams (10.18) are 2 players that have a higher than 10 SD and is under $4000.
  • Miles Bridges (9.81) and Danilo Gallinari (6.99) are the 2 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to pay up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30% (Denzel Valentine), 1Q: 42%, Median: 47.50%, Mean: 46.12%, 3Q: 51.50%, Max: 57% (Joe Harris)

6x%: Min: 18% (Denzel Valentine), 1Q: 21.75%, Median: 29%, Mean: 27.50%, 3Q: 31.75%, Max: 39% (Troy Brown)

  • These guys are the top 5 guys to pay up for today
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Brandon Ingram790038.8115.3066.6010.330.470.200.06
Paul George760036.368.7062.5013.050.450.240.10
Andrew Wiggins760036.3514.1065.5010.930.440.200.06
Tobias Harris670034.6111.4057.9010.220.540.290.11
Jonathan Isaac640032.926.2058.5013.150.530.340.18
  • Joe Harris and Troy Brown are my favorite two pay down guys.
  • Tobias Harris and Jonathan Isaac provide value pay up spots.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Joe Harris440023.3110.3044.807.940.570.350.17
Troy Brown420022.597.2053.309.730.560.390.24
Taurean Prince450023.88.2047.908.990.560.360.20
Tobias Harris670034.6111.4057.9010.220.540.290.11
Glenn Robinson420021.973.4042.909.320.540.360.21
Jonathan Isaac640032.926.2058.5013.150.530.340.18
Marcus Morris550027.767.9060.5010.870.510.310.16

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 35.10 (Al-Farouq Aminu), 1Q: 38.05, Median: 48.70, Mean: 48.40, 3Q: 53.77, Max: 68.20

  1. Kawhi Leonard 68.20
  2. Jarrett Allen 63.70
  3. Lauri Markkanen 60.40
  4. Domantas Sabonis 60.30
  5. Aaron Gordon 57.00

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.940 (Zion Williamson), 1Q: 9.133, Median: 9.390, Mean: 9.503, 3Q: 9.845, Max: 11.910 (Jarrett Allen)

  • There are no players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10.
  • Domantas Sabonis (9.43), Kawhi Leonard (9.33) and Al Horford (9.14), Zion Williamson (6.94) are all above $6000 with a SD under 10.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30% (Khem Birch), 1Q: 43.50%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.18%, 3Q: 52.75%, Max: 55% (Brandon Clarke)

6x%: Min: 11% (Domantas Sabonis), 1Q: 25.50%, Median: 29%, Mean: 27.14%, 3Q: 31.75%, Max: 35% (Thad Young)

  • These are the “Studs” for the PF.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Kawhi Leonard960047.6331.4068.209.330.480.140.02
Domantas Sabonis880041.3718.0060.309.430.390.110.02

 

  • Top Value Plays:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Brandon Clarke470024.630.2044.709.250.550.350.19
Davis Bertans510026.2410.3047.308.090.540.300.12
Thaddeus Young440022.745.7048.709.520.530.350.20
P.J. Washington490025.186.4048.709.130.530.320.16
Al Horford600030.6411.3051.009.140.530.280.11
Nerlens Noel420021.610.2037.809.250.530.350.20
Eric Paschall460023.444.6051.6010.550.520.350.20

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 42.05, Median: 52.05, Mean: 51.09, 3Q: 57.12, Max: 78.30

  1. Joel Embiid 78.3
  2. Nikola Vucevic 62.90
  3. Montrezl Harrell 62.10
  4. Jonas Valanciunas 61.40
  5. Steven Adams 60.40

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.840 (Robert Williams), 1Q: 9.655, Median: 10.115, Mean: 10.425, 3Q: 11.117, Max: 14.180 (Joel Embiid)

  • Nikola Vucevic (9.80) and Wendell Cater Jr (9.01) and are the only two centers with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings.
  • Jahlil Okafor (12.69) and Bismack Biyombo (10.33) are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 32% (Willy Hernangomez), 1Q: 46%, Median: 51.50%, Mean: 48.50%, 3Q: 52.75%, Max: 56% (Cody Zeller)

6x%: Min: 11% (Nikola Vucevic), 1Q: 29%, Median: 33%, Mean: 30.55%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 39% (Gorgui Dieng)

  • Top Centers to pay up for:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Joel Embiid960045.495.0078.3014.180.430.200.06
Nikola Vucevic900042.0819.5062.909.800.380.110.02
  • Top Values at Center:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Cody Zeller450023.925.2055.309.610.560.370.22
Steven Adams570029.757.9060.4010.890.550.340.18
Ivica Zubac400020.845.3041.107.840.540.340.18
Ian Mahinmi4000215.5044.909.900.540.380.24
Marquese Chriss450023.423.7047.3011.160.530.370.23
Jonas Valanciunas660033.812.7061.4012.730.530.320.17
DeAndre Jordan500025.574.8051.409.790.520.330.17

 

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