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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Sunday 03/29/2020

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 17 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. The DFS sites have been working hard to find a way to stay a float, while finding us some fun games for us to play and keep us busy. They found a gem with Sim Sports and it’s a lot of fun.  Fanduel is just handing out free money to keep us all happy and I’m extremely grateful for that. We might see paid contests soon in the future if it keeps seeing this type of interest so keep it up!

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:

 PG: Kyrie Irving 73.10

 SG: D’Angelo Russell 82.30

 SF: Brandon Ingram 66.60

 PF: Kristaps Porzingis 75.60

 C: Karl-Anthony Towns 83.0

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

 PG: Jeff Teague 12.16x and Seth Curry 12.15x

 SG: Jordan McRae 13.37x and DeAndre’ Bembry 13x

 SF: Juancho Hernangomez 13.74x and Jae Crowder 13.08x

 PF: Skal Labissiere 16.36x and Trey Lyles 13.28x

 C: Boban Marjanovic 15.97x and Jahlil Okafor 15.92x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: De’Aaron Fox (65.3 fantasy points), Jeff Teague (53.5 fantasy points)

SG: D’Angelo Russell (82.3 fantasy points), Marcus Smart (66 fantasy points)

SF: Brandon Ingram (66.6 fantasy points), Jae Crowder (64.1 fantasy points)

PF: Kristaps Porzingis  (75.6 fantasy points), Skal Labissiere (58.9 fantasy points)

C: Karl-Anthony Towns (83.0 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 615.3 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 34.90 (Brandon Knight), 1Q: 44.67, Median: 51.05, Mean: 51.75, 3Q: 57.08, Max: 73.10

  1. Kyrie Irving 73.10
  2. Trae Young: 72.60
  3. Luka Doncic: 70.90
  4. De’Aaron: 65.30
  5. Spencer Dinwiddie: 62.50

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.440 (Brad Wanamaker), 1Q: 9.133, Median: 10.290, Mean: 10.337, 3Q: 11.117, Max: 14.950 (Trae Young)

  • There are two Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Kendrick Nunn (9.57), Goran Dragic (8.84) and Markelle Fultz (8.15). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
  • Trae Young has the highest SD of all point guards tonight with 14.950. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
  • Tonight’s slate has a range of 4 cheap guys under $4000 salary and over 10 SD. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Seth Curry (10.73), Jordan McRae (10.32), or Brandon Knight (10.27).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 35% (Brandon Knight), 1Q: 43.75%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.88%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Derrick White)

6x%: Min: 13% (Luka Doncic), 1Q: 25.75%, Median: 29%, Mean: 28.29%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 37% (Jeff Teague)

  • The studs to pay up for:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Luka Doncic10800.0051.4726.3070.9011.660.410.130.02
Trae Young10000.0046.9711.0072.6014.950.420.190.06
Kyrie Irving9700.0046.1321.8073.1014.420.430.200.07
  • These are the best value 5x%:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Derrick White4300.0022.633.7050.909.230.550.370.21
Lonzo Ball6300.0032.619.8054.2011.400.540.320.16
Markelle Fultz5100.0026.2010.7051.208.150.530.290.12
Jeff Teague4400.0022.820.2053.5011.030.530.370.23
Terry Rozier6000.0030.578.6051.3010.310.520.300.13
Kemba Walker7000.0035.6011.7062.1012.230.520.300.14
D.J. Augustin4000.0020.413.2047.109.260.520.350.21

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.80 (Tony Snell), 1Q: 41.65, Median: 48.50, Mean: 50.68, 3Q: 58.05, Max: 82.30 (D’Angelo Russell)

  1. D’Angelo Russell 82.30
  2. Marcus Smart 66
  3. Jrue Holiday 65.30
  4. Jimmy Butler 63.70
  5. Caris LeVert 63.30

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.930 (Langston Galloway), 1Q: 8.845, Median: 9.940, Mean: 9.863, 3Q: 10.865, Max: 13.370 (Caris Levert)

  • There are 2 players over $6000 to have an SD under 10 (Jimmy Butler (9.94) and DeMar Derozan (8.87)
  • There are three players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Malik Beasley (11.60), Malik Monk (10.95) and DeAndre’ Bembry (10.02)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 35% (Cody Martin), 1Q: 47.50%, Median: 52%, Mean: 49.48%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 56% (Terrence Ross)

6x%: Min: 11% (Jimmy Butler), 1Q: 26.5%, Median: 32%, Mean: 30.37%, 3Q: 35.50%, Max: 40% (Jordan McRae)

  • We have 4 guys to pay up for tonight.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Jimmy Butler890041.4211.0063.709.940.380.110.02
Jrue Holiday780039.5521.6065.3011.020.520.260.09
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.5062.308.870.530.220.05
D’Angelo Russell750038.119.2082.3012.790.520.300.13
  • Tyler Herro you are getting the highest upside, Bogdan Bogdanovic you are getting the highest ceiling, Terrence Ross you are getting the safest floor with the lowest SD as well.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Terrence Ross450023.746.2049.507.900.560.340.16
Garrett Temple400021.036.7041.708.350.550.360.20
Josh Hart450023.495.6041.608.990.540.350.19
Bruce Brown450023.571.0051.8010.290.540.370.22
JJ Redick410021.373.0039.809.290.540.360.22
Tyler Herro410021.382.5039.7010.140.530.380.24
Bogdan Bogdanovic480024.836.4052.6010.270.530.350.20
Duncan Robinson400020.681.2046.608.820.530.350.20

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.90 (Nicolas Batum), 1Q: 42.42, Median: 45.85, Mean: 46.40, 3Q: 48.30, Max: 66.60

  1. Brandon Ingram 66.60
  2. Jae Crowder 64.10
  3. Jonathan Isaac 58.50
  4. Gordon Hayward 57.40
  5. Jaylen Brown 48.50

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.40 (Nicolas Batum) , 1Q: 8.377, Median: 9.665, Mean: 9.650, 3Q: 10.363, Max: 13.15 (Jonathan Isaac)

  • Caleb Martin (12.67), Juancho Hernangomez (11.63), and Kenrich Williams (10.18) are the 3 players that have a higher than 10 SD and under is $4000.
  • Jaylen Brown (8.84), and Luke Kennard (8.36) are the 2 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 36% (Juancho Hernangomez), 1Q: 46.5%, Median: 52%, Mean: 49.38%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 57% (Joe Harris)

6x%: Min: 24% (Jake Layman), 1Q: 26%, Median: 33%, Mean: 31.13%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 38% (Tim Hardaway Jr)

  • These guys are the top 4 guys to pay up for today
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Brandon Ingram760038.8115.3066.6010.330.530.260.08
Jaylen Brown660033.3415.0048.508.840.520.240.07
Gordon Hayward650033.2111.2057.4011.700.520.310.15
Jonathan Isaac640032.926.2058.5013.150.530.340.18
  • The top options to pay down for.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Joe Harris440023.3110.3044.807.940.570.350.17
Taurean Prince450023.808.2047.908.990.560.360.20
Harrison Barnes470024.626.2040.608.950.550.340.18
Dorian Finney-Smith400021.012.0045.408.160.550.360.20
Tim Hardaway450023.692.0048.3010.460.550.380.23
De’Andre Hunter420021.780.4046.309.810.530.360.22

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 33.40 (Harry Giles), 1Q: 43.20, Median: 50.90, Mean: 51.97, 3Q: 60.70, Max: 75.60

  1. Kristaps Porzingis 75.6
  2. Bam Adebayo 70.30
  3. John Collins 67.2
  4. Jayson Tatum 66.4
  5. LaMarcus Aldridge 66.3

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.94 (Zion Williamson), 1Q: 9.14, Median: 10.36, Mean: 10.47, 3Q: 11.73, Max: 14.52 (Kristaps Porzingis)

  • There are two players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Naz Reid (11.77) and Skal Labissiere (10.53).
  • PJ Washington (9.13), Blake Griffin (7.86) and Zion Williamson (6.94) are all above $5000 with a SD under 10.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30% (Khem Birch), 1Q: 45.25%, Median: 49.50%, Mean: 47.96%, 3Q: 51.75%, Max: 57% (Daniel Theis)

6x%: Min: 15% (John Collins), 1Q: 27.25%, Median: 31%, Mean: 29.08%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 38% (Christian Wood)

  • These are the “Studs” for the PF.
NamePositionSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
John Collins4870041.2218.1067.2010.700.420.150.03
Jayson Tatum4830040.8218.6066.4010.800.480.200.05
Bam Adebayo4820040.7117.6070.3011.010.490.220.06
Kristaps Porzingis4790039.9212.1075.6014.520.510.300.14
LaMarcus Aldridge4730036.9810.3066.3012.090.520.290.12
Zion Williamson4660033.4926.3053.106.940.530.190.03

 

  • Zion Williamson will continue to be my top play at PF and be in 3-4 of my lineups everytime he plays. His extremely low SD just makes him the safest option every night. His floor is 4x value. 47% of the time he will get you between 4x and 5x. The rest of the time he is getting you 5x+. With a ceiling value of 8x.

 

  • Top Value Plays
NamePositionSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Daniel Theis4460024.475.6045.208.710.570.360.19
Aaron Gordon4620031.874.4057.0010.930.530.310.15
Blake Griffin4510026.1310.3043.107.860.530.280.11
Maxi Kleber4410021.083.8041.708.270.530.340.18
Zion Williamson4660033.4926.3053.106.940.530.190.03
Nemanja Bjelica4510026.017.5055.8010.190.520.330.17
LaMarcus Aldridge4730036.9810.3066.3012.090.520.290.12
Christian Wood4490024.97-1.0055.4014.300.510.380.26
Kristaps Porzingis4790039.9212.1075.6014.520.510.300.14

 

  • Christian Wood shows up very low on the 5x% chart but can get you have ceiling you need to take down the contest. He has the highest 6x and 7x% for PFs tonight. He will be right next to Zion in most of my lineups tonight.

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 33.40 (John Collins), 1Q: 38.65, Median: 45.70, Mean: 47.47, 3Q: 54, Max: 83

  1. Karl Anthony Towns 83.00
  2. Nikola Vucevic 62.90
  3. Clint Capela 61.20
  4. Jahlil Okafor 57.30
  5. Boban Marjanovic 55.90

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 8.1 (Mo Bamba), 1Q: 8.95, Median: 9.80, Mean: 10.12, 3Q: 10.89, Max: 12.84 (Boban Marjanovic)

  • Nikola Vucevic and DeAndre Jordan are the two centers with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings.
  •  Boban Marjanovic (12.84), Jahlil Okafor (12.96), Kelly Olynyk (10.79) and Dewayne Dedmon (10.73) are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 32% (Willy Hernangomez), 1Q: 40.50%, Median: 46%, Mean: 45.74%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Cody Zeller)

6x%: Min: 11% (Nikola Vucevic), 1Q: 26%, Median: 32%, Mean: 29.43%, 3Q: 34.5%, Max: 39% (Enes Kanter)

  • I will not be wasting my salary today on Nikola Vucevic. His ceiling is barely higher than the rest of the centers and his 5x%/6x% is so low he just isn’t worth it.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Karl-Anthony Towns1060049.2627.2083.0011.970.380.120.02
Nikola Vucevic900042.0819.5062.909.800.380.110.02
Clint Capela760038.758.9061.2012.740.520.300.13
  • If I am paying up I am stopping at Clint Capela.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Cody Zeller450023.925.2055.309.610.560.370.22
Willie Cauley-Stein410021.543.1038.008.940.550.370.21
Dwight Powell420021.726.3045.009.370.530.360.21
Enes Kanter410021.321.4050.8011.280.530.390.26

 

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