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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Sunday 04/05/2020

What’s Up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 25 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch.

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:

 PG: Ben Simmons 84.4

 SG: James Harden 82.6

 SF: Giannis Antetokoumnpo 81.8

 PF: Kristaps Porzingis 75.6

 C: Andre Drummond 81.6

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

 PG: Shake Milton and Dennis Smith Jr

 SG: Kurkan Kormaz and Jordon McRae

 SF: Eric Gordon and Kevin Porter

 PF: Isiah Hartenstein and Michael Porter Jr

 C: Boban MArjanovic and Moritz Wagner

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Ben Simmons (84.4 fantasy points), Shake Milton (51.1 fantasy points)

SG: James Harden (82.6 fantasy points), Marcus Smart (66 fantasy points)

SF: Eric Gordon (68.7 fantasy points), Jae Crowder (64.1 fantasy points)

PF: Kristaps Porzingis (75.6 fantasy points), Isiah Hartenstein (57.5 fantasy points)

C: Andre Drummond (81.6 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 631.6 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 34.9 (Brandon Knight), 1Q: 47.20, Median: 51.10, Mean: 51.73, 3Q: 55.40, Max: 84.4

  1. Ben Simmons: 84.4
  2. Luka Doncic: 70.90
  3. Russell Westbrook: 69.20
  4. Kemba Walker: 62.10
  5. Eric Bledsoe: 57.2

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.380 (George Hill), 1Q: 9.11, Median: 10.27, Mean: 10.24, 3Q: 11.36, Max: 13.30 (Shake Milton)

  • There are 4 Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Kendrick Nunn (9.57), Chris Paul (9.11), Goran Dragic (8.84) and Collin Sexton (8.21). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
  • Tonight’s slate has a range of 5 cheap guys under $4000 salary and over 10 SD. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Shake Milton (13.3), Frank Ntilikina (11.36), Dennis Smith (10.93), Seth Curry (10.73) or Brandon Knight (10.27).

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 35% (Brandon Knight), 1Q: 43%, Median: 48%, Mean: 46.92%, 3Q: 51%, Max: 55% (Ish Smith)

6x%: Min: 12% (Luka Doncic), 1Q: 25%, Median: 28%, Mean: 27.72%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 38% (Ish Smith)

  • The studs to pay up for:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Luka Doncic1090051.4726.3070.9011.660.400.120.02
Russell Westbrook1030048.4120.4069.2011.470.390.120.02
Ben Simmons910042.959.2084.4012.920.420.180.05
  • These are the best value 5x%:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Ish Smith450023.873.2056.6010.100.550.380.23
Derrick White430022.633.7050.909.230.550.370.21
Shabazz Napier450023.454.5052.3011.330.530.380.24
Kemba Walker700035.611.7062.1012.230.520.300.14
Collin Sexton590029.8815.0052.608.210.520.250.08
Kendrick Nunn500025.294.7051.209.570.510.310.16

 

  • Ish Smith and Derrick White are the two best value options for PG tonight.

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.80 (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 41.90, Median: 48.20, Mean: 50.43, 3Q: 62.30, Max: 82.60

  1. James Harden 82.60
  2. Khris Middleton 70.00
  3. Bradley Beal 69.20
  4. Marcus Smart 66.00
  5. Jimmy Butler 63.70

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.930 (Langston Galloway), 1Q: 8.540, Median: 9.740, Mean: 9.806, 3Q: 10.910, Max: 13.930 (James Harden)

  • There are 4 players over $5000 to have an SD under 10 (Khris Middleton (9.99), Jimmy Butler (9.74), Dennis Schroder (9.61), and DeMar DeRozan (8.87)
  • There are 2 players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Gary Payton (12.14), and Tyler Herro (10.14)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 32% (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 43%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.48%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 57% (Tyler Herro)

6x%: Min: 13% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 23%, Median: 27%, Mean: 28.04%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 42% (Tyler Herro)

  • We have 4 guys to pay up for tonight.
James Harden1120055.9927.182.6013.930.500.210.05
Bradley Beal1000046.3120.969.2012.010.380.130.02
Jimmy Butler860041.421163.709.940.440.150.03
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.308.870.530.220.05
Khris Middleton700035.2821.270.009.990.510.250.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander700034.5210.260.0010.120.480.230.08
  • Tyler Herro is the best value play on the board for SG today.
  • If you were looking to spend up at SG, DeMar DeRozan offers a safe play with limited upside.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Tyler Herro390021.382.539.7010.140.570.420.28
Josh Richardson480025.535.442.809.740.560.370.20
Marcus Smart570030.081.666.0011.410.560.360.19
Donte DiVincenzo430022.49-141.908.500.550.350.19
Bruce Brown450023.57151.8010.290.540.370.22
Duncan Robinson400020.681.246.608.820.530.350.20
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.308.870.530.220.05

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 33.90 (Maurice Harkless), 1Q: 42.80, Median: 48.30, Mean: 50.18, 3Q: 55.35, Max: 81.8

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 81.8
  2. Eric Gordon 68.70
  3. Jae Crowder 64.10
  4. Tobias Harris 57.90
  5. Gordon Hayward 51.10

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.990 (Danilo Gallinari) , 1Q: 8.600, Median: 9.320, Mean: 9.476, 3Q: 10.340, Max: 11.70 (Gordon Hayward)

  • There are no players that have a higher than 10 SD and under is $4000.
  • Jaylen Brown (8.84), Luke Kennard (8.36) and Danilo Gallinari (6.99) are the 3 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 34% (Matisse Thybulle), 1Q: 50.50%, Median: 53%, Mean: 51.32%, 3Q: 54%, Max: 57% (Gordon Hayward)

6x%: Min: 13% (Giannis Antetokounmpo), 1Q: 27.50%, Median: 34%, Mean: 31.53%, 3Q: 36.50%, Max: 40% (Eric Gordon)

  • These guys are the top 4 guys to pay up for today
Giannis Antetokounmpo1160057.2532.581.8011.000.470.130.01
Tobias Harris670034.6111.457.9010.220.540.290.11
Jaylen Brown650033.341548.508.840.540.260.08
Gordon Hayward620033.2111.257.4011.700.570.370.19

 

  • Troy Brown and Tim Hardaway are my favorite two pay down guys.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Gordon Hayward620033.2111.257.4011.700.570.370.19
Troy Brown420022.597.253.309.730.560.390.24
Dorian Finney-Smith400021.01245.408.160.550.360.20
Tim Hardaway450023.69248.3010.460.550.380.23
Tobias Harris670034.6111.457.9010.220.540.290.11
Glenn Robinson420021.973.442.909.320.540.360.21

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.00 (Harry Giles), 1Q: 43.48, Median: 49.65, Mean: 51.71, 3Q: 58.02, Max: 75.60

  1. Kristaps Porzingis 75.60
  2. Bam Adebayo 70.30
  3. Jayson Tatum 66.40
  4. LaMarcus Aldridge 66.30
  5. Julius Randle 61.10

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.86 (Blake Griffin), 1Q: 8.60, Median: 9.52, Mean: 10.45, 3Q: 11.51, Max: 14.99 (Isaiah Hartenstein)

  • There are two players with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Isaiah Hartenstein (14.99) and Michael Porter Jr (12.39)
  • Julius Randle (9.58), and Al Horford (9.14) are all above $6000 with a SD under 10.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 34% (Luke Kornet), 1Q: 42.50%, Median: 49%, Mean: 47.08%, 3Q: 51.25%, Max: 57% (Davis Bertans)

6x%: Min: 20% (Kawhi Leonard), 1Q: 23.75%, Median: 28.50%, Mean: 28.25%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 38% (Christian Wood)

  • These are the “Studs” for the PF.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Jayson Tatum830040.8218.666.4010.800.480.200.05
Bam Adebayo820040.7117.670.3011.010.490.220.06
Kristaps Porzingis810039.9212.175.6014.520.480.280.12
LaMarcus Aldridge730036.9810.366.3012.090.520.290.12
Julius Randle720036.2115.861.109.580.510.230.07
Kevin Love680034.48.759.6011.150.510.280.12
  • Top Value Plays:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Daniel Theis460024.475.645.208.710.570.360.19
Davis Bertans510026.2410.347.308.090.540.300.12
Maxi Kleber410021.083.841.708.270.530.340.18
Al Horford600030.6411.351.009.140.530.280.11
Nerlens Noel420021.610.237.809.250.530.350.20
LaMarcus Aldridge730036.9810.366.3012.090.520.290.12
Kevin Love680034.48.759.6011.150.510.280.12
Rui Hachimura500025.315.448.309.350.510.310.15
Christian Wood490024.97-155.4014.300.510.380.26

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 40.40, Median: 47.50, Mean: 50.06, 3Q: 55.00, Max: 81.60

  1. Andre Drummond 81.6
  2. Joel Embiid 78.3
  3. Tristan Thompson 66.3
  4. Steven Adams 60.40
  5. Boban Marjanovic 55.90

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 8.21 (Robert Williams), 1Q: 9.28, Median: 9.90, Mean: 10.33, 3Q: 11.12, Max: 14.18 (Joel Embiid)

  • Mitchell Robinson (9.93) is the only center with a SD under 10 and a price tag over $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings.
  •  Boban Marjanovic (12.84) and Kelly Olynyk (10.37) are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 33% (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 43%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.1%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Willie Cauley-Stein)

6x%: Min: 19% (Andre Drummond), 1Q: 25%, Median: 31%, Mean: 30.1%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 38% (Ian Mahinmi)

  • Top Centers to pay up for:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Andre Drummond980046.9813.781.6013.580.440.190.06
Joel Embiid960045.49578.3014.180.430.200.06

 

  • Top Values at Center:
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Willie Cauley-Stein410021.543.138.008.940.550.370.21
Steven Adams570029.757.960.4010.890.550.340.18
Ian Mahinmi4000215.544.909.900.540.380.24
P.J. Tucker410021.451.241.209.460.540.370.22
Dwight Powell420021.726.345.009.370.530.360.21
Thomas Bryant500025.573.650.2011.120.520.350.20
Mitchell Robinson530026.785.647.009.930.510.310.15
Bobby Portis390019.664.451.609.520.510.350.21
Moritz Wagner390019.63.255.009.830.500.350.22

 

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