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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Thursday 03/26/2020

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time or if you are new and finally getting into the Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 15 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as I am being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. The DFS sites have been working hard to find a way to stay a float, while finding us some fun games for us to play and keep us busy. They found a gem with Sim Sports and it’s a lot of fun.  Fanduel is just handing out free money to keep us all happy and I’m extremely grateful for that. We might see paid contests soon in the future if it keeps seeing this type of interest so keep it up!

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games in a casino, there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see the highest scorer at each position:

 PG: Damian Lillard 84.5

 SG: CJ McCollum 71.8

 SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo 81.8

 PF: Kawhi Leonard 68.2

 C: Nikola Jokic 80.5

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

 PG: Dennis Smith Jr 13.97x and Frank Ntilikina 13.49x

 SG: Terrence Davis 13.34x and Jordon McRae 13.37x

 SF: OG Anunoby 14.33x and Troy Brown 12.40x

 PF: Michael Porter Jr 13.29 and Trey Lyles 13.28x

 C: Jahlil Okafor 15.92x and Gorgui Dieng 14.15x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play, which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Damian Lillard (84.5 fantasy points), Jamal Murray (67.8 fantasy points)

SG: Khris Middleton (70 fantasy points), Marcus Smart (66 fantasy points)

SF: OG Anunoby (65.9 fantasy points), Marcus Morris (60.5 fantasy points)

PF: LaMarcus Aldridge  (66.3 fantasy points), Michael Porter Jr (46.5 fantasy points)

C: Nikola Jokic (80.5 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 608 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 3090 (Anfernee Simons), 1Q: 40.70, Median: 49.90, Mean: 49.76, 3Q: 56.67, Max: 84.50

  1. Damian Lillard84.5
  2. Jamal Murray: 67.8
  3. Kemba Walker: 62.1
  4. Kyle Lowry: 59.6
  5. Eric Bledsoe: 57.2

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.380 (George Hill), 1Q: 9.102, Median: 10.185, Mean: 10.098, 3Q: 11.352, Max: 12.820 (Damian Lillard)

  • There is only one Point Guard that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Kyle Lowry (9.91). The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
  • Damian Lillard has the worst SD of all point guards tonight with 12.820. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
  • There is only one player over 10 SD that is under $4000. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Dennis Smith Jr (10.93)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 34% (Anfernee Simons), 1Q: 44.75%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47.58%, 3Q: 52.75%, Max: 55% (Ish Smith)

6x%: Min: 13% (Damian Lillard), 1Q: 26.50%, Median: 31%, Mean: 29.27%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 38% (Ish Smith)

  • There are 2 players with a 5x% of 55%. (Derrick White and Ish Smith). These 3 are then the top value point guards on the slate. Ish Smith also has the highest 6x% 7x% 8x% 9x% and 10x% of the 2 guys. He will be the center piece of a majority of my lineups tonight, and be in at least 3 of my lineups.
  • Damian Lillard has the lowest 6x% of PGs and has a very low 5x% too (38%) There are just too many good PGs on this slate to play Dame unless you are looking for that ceiling play. Which he has the highest ceiling on the slate.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Ish Smith450023.873.256.610.100.550.380.23
Derrick White430022.633.750.99.230.550.370.21
Lonzo Ball630032.619.854.211.400.540.320.16
Kyle Lowry770039.3317.959.69.910.530.240.07
Shabazz Napier450023.454.552.311.330.530.380.24
Ja Morant630032.48.75711.570.530.320.16
Jamal Murray640032.881.267.811.600.530.320.15
Reggie Jackson450023.086.945.510.940.520.360.22
Kemba Walker700035.611.762.112.230.520.300.14

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.80 (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 41.27, Median: 49.25, Mean: 50.12, 3Q: 60.73, Max: 71.80 (CJ McCollum)

  1. CJ McCollum (71.6)
  2. Khris Middleton (70)
  3. Bradley Beal (69.2)
  4. Marcus Smart (66)
  5. Jrue Holiday (65.3)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.930 (Langston Galloway), 1Q: 8.440, Median: 9.930, Mean: 9.688, 3Q: 10.938, Max: 13.100 (Jordan McRae)

  • The highest SD for a Shooting Guard is Jordan McRae with 13.10. He has an average of 21.14 so he has a 65% chance to score within 8.04 and 34.24.
  • The lowest SD for a Shooting Guard is Langston Galloway with 6.930. He has an average of 17.34 so he has a 65% chance to score within 10.41 and 24.27.
  • There are 2 players over $6000 to have an SD under 10 (DeMar Derozan (8.87)and Khris Middleton (9.99).
  • There is only one player with a salary less than $4000, who has a SD over over 10: Terence Davis (10.51)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 32% (Pat Connaughton), 1Q: 42.75%, Median: 51%, Mean: 47.92%, 3Q: 53.25%, Max: 55% (Dillon Brooks)

6x%: Min: 14% (Bradley Beal), 1Q: 23.75%, Median: 29.%, Mean: 28.33%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 40% (Jordan McRae)

  • We have 6 guys to pay up for tonight.
  • The safest pay up player is DeMar DeRozan. Lowest SD and highest 5x%, but that is sacrificed by his second low 6x%.
  • Bradley Beal is the riskiest play on the board. He has the lowest 6x% to pay up for and the lowest 5x% but he does have the highest SD so he has a large range of outcomes. He has the third highest ceiling for a SG on the slate. He just isn’t worth playing tonight for me.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Bradley Beal990046.3120.969.212.010.400.140.03
Jrue Holiday780039.5521.665.311.020.520.260.09
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.38.870.530.220.05
CJ McCollum720036.148.271.811.930.500.280.12
Fred VanVleet720036.228.254.510.480.510.250.09
Khris Middleton700035.2821.2709.990.510.250.08

 

  • As you can see by the list the top 8 SGs for 5x only has one guy above $5200. DeMar Derozan is amazing value if you are looking for 5x tonight. He doesn’t have the huge upside but has an extremely safe floor.
  • If you are looking to pay down Dillon Brooks is the top option. He has the highest ceiling, a great SD, and the highest 5x, 6x, 7x. and 8x%.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %
Dillon Brooks470024.75.552.89.870.550.360.200.10
Donte DiVincenzo430022.49-141.98.500.550.350.190.08
Josh Hart450023.495.641.68.990.540.350.190.08
Bruce Brown450023.57151.810.290.540.370.220.11
Gary Harris400020.786.145.18.260.540.350.190.09
JJ Redick410021.37339.89.290.540.360.220.11
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.38.870.530.220.050.01
RJ Barrett510026.214.445.710.910.530.340.190.09

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.70 (Kyle Anderson), 1Q: 38.20, Median: 48.10, Mean: 49.77, 3Q: 60.50, Max: 81.60

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (81.8)
  2. Brandon Ingram (66.6)
  3. OG Anunoby (65.9)
  4. Pascal Siakam (62.9)
  5. Paul George (62.5)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.820 (Kyle Anderson) , 1Q: 8.840, Median: 9.730, Mean: 9.951, 3Q: 10.840, Max: 13.420 (OG Anunoby)

  • The highest SD for a Small Forward is OG Anunoby with 12.67. He has an average of 12.95 so he has a 65% chance to score within 0.28 and 25.62
  • The lowest SD for a Shooting Guard is Kyle Anderson with 6.990. He has an average of 29.48 so he has a 65% chance to score within 22.49 and 36.47.
  • Kenrich Williams (10.18) and Trevor Ariza (10.84) are the only two players that have a higher than 10 SD and under is $4000.
  • Pascal Siakam (9.83), Will Barton (9.73), Jaylen Brown (8.84) and Luke Kennard (8.36) are the 4 guys over $5000 that have a SD under 10. These are the most consistent guys to paid up for.

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 34% (Keita Bates-Diop), 1Q: 44%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.24%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (OG Anunoby)

6x%: Min: 16% (Pascal Siakam), 1Q: 24%, Median: 29%, Mean: 28.33%, 3Q: 33%, Max: 41% (OG Anunoby)

  • These guys are the top 9 guys to hit value today sub $5000
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
OG Anunoby460024.570.565.9013.420.550.410.28
Troy Brown430022.597.253.309.730.540.370.22
Brandon Ingram760038.8115.366.6010.330.530.260.08
Will Barton610031.2412.654.909.730.530.290.12
Luke Kennard520026.5412.342.708.360.530.290.12
Gordon Hayward650033.2111.257.4011.700.520.310.15
Rudy Gay400020.381.441.609.060.520.340.20
Jaylen Brown660033.341548.508.840.520.240.07
Trevor Ariza390019.820.245.3010.840.510.370.25
  • OG Anunoby has the highest 5x% and has the highest 6x%. He is one of the top plays on the slate. He also has the 3rd highest ceiling for a SF on the slate.

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.00 (Taj Gibson), 1Q: 42.55, Median: 46.50, Mean: 47.94, 3Q: 51.80, Max: 68.20

  1. Kawhi Leonard (68.2)
  2. Jayson Tatum (66.4)
  3. LaMarcus Aldridge (66.3)
  4. Julius Randle (61.10)
  5. Christian Wood (55.40)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.940 (Zion Williamson), 1Q: 8.490, Median: 9.350, Mean: 9.633, 3Q: 10.075, Max: 14.300 (Christian Wood)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 34% (Marvin Williams), 1Q: 45.50%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.48%, 3Q: 53%, Max: 57% (Daniel Theis)

6x%: Min: 17% (Kawhi Leonard), 1Q: 24%, Median: 29%, Mean: 28.39%, 3Q: 33%, Max: 38% (Christian Wood)

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Kawhi Leonard940047.6331.468.209.330.530.170.03
Jayson Tatum830040.8218.666.4010.800.480.200.05
LaMarcus Aldridge730036.9810.366.3012.090.520.290.12
Julius Randle720036.2115.861.109.580.510.230.07
Zion Williamson660033.4926.353.106.940.530.190.03
  • These are the “Studs” for the PF.
  • Zion Williamson will continue to be my top play at PF and be in 3-4 of my lineups everytime he plays. His extremely low SD just makes him the safest option every night. His floor is 4x value. 47% of the time he will get you between 4x and 5x. The rest of the time he is getting you 5x+. With a ceiling value of 8x.
  • Kawhi Leonard is another great play and possibly all my lineups will pair him and Zion together. Like Zion he has an extremely high floor; he will not get you less than 3.34x value, unlike some guys like Luka who ended up with 2.2 fantasy points last night because they picked a game he got hurt it haha. Him and Zion both have the highest 5x% of the studs and at 53% is one of the highest for PFs on the slate too.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %9x %10x %Ceiling Value
Daniel Theis460024.475.645.208.710.570.360.190.080.030.019.83
Brandon Clarke470024.630.244.709.250.550.350.190.080.030.019.51
Paul Millsap470024.617.643.909.990.540.360.200.100.040.019.34
Davis Bertans510026.2410.347.308.090.540.300.120.040.010.009.27
  • These are the only 4 players with higher 5x% than Kawhi and Zion. They will probably be the only 4 I look out outside of Zion and Kawhi. Unless I’m looking at ceiling guys like Michael Porter Jr.
  • All 4 of these guys are amazing plays and I would have them as core plays if Zion and Kawhi weren’t on the slate.

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling, it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 31.70 (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 44.15, Median: 50.20, Mean: 55.80, 3Q: 55.80, Max: 80.50

  1. Nikola Jokic (80.50)
  2. Hassan Whiteside (68.40)
  3. Montrezl Harrell (62.10)
  4. Jonas Valanciunas (61.40)
  5. Jahlil Okafor (57.30)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean (average). So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean (average) and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean (average). Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.84 (Ivica Zubac), 1Q: 9.34, Median: 9.93, Mean: 10.37, 3Q: 11.38, Max: 12.73 (Jonas Valanciunas)

  • Mitchell Robinson is the only center with a SD under 10 and a price tag under $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings. I want to go with a safe guy but still have the upside.
  • Jahlil Okafor and Chris Boucher are the only two Centers that have a Standard Deviation higher than 10 and under $4000.
  • Nikola Jokic vs Hassan WhitesideJokic’s ceiling is 12 points higher and an 8.6 higher floor, but outside of that they are pretty similar in all categories.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Nikola Jokic950044.6624.580.5012.610.410.160.04
Hassan Whiteside930043.6515.968.4012.370.410.160.04

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 33% (Anzejs Pasecniks), 1Q: 44%, Median: 50%, Mean: 48.3%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Marc Gasol)

6x%: Min: 16% (Hassan Whiteside/Nikola Jokic), 1Q: 28%, Median: 33%, Mean: 31%, 3Q: 35%, Max: 39% (Gorgui Dieng)

  • Center is an extremely deep position so I will not be paying up for Nikola Jokic or Hassan Whiteside. Both rank bottom 3 in 5x% and both rank last for 6x%.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %
Marc Gasol460024.297.244.309.400.550.360.200.09
Ivica Zubac400020.845.341.107.840.540.340.180.08
Ian Mahinmi4000215.544.909.900.540.380.240.13
Enes Kanter410021.321.450.8011.280.530.390.260.15
Jonas Valanciunas660033.812.761.4012.730.530.320.170.07
Thomas Bryant500025.573.650.2011.120.520.350.200.10
Gorgui Dieng400020.61.456.6012.300.520.390.270.18

 

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