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Fanduel NBA Sim Sports Strategies Wednesday 03/25/2020

What is up Karma Nation! Welcome to the our NBA Sim Sports article. If you are finding us for the first time if you are new and finally getting into Sim Sports degen life like the rest of us, welcome! We have reached day 13 of no NBA and I assume you all are going as crazy as me being locked up in the house with no sports to watch. The DFS sites have been working hard to find a way to stay a float while finding us some fun games for us to play and keep us busy. They found a gem with Sim Sports and it’s a lot of fun.  Fanduel is just handing out free money to keep us all happy and I’m extremely grateful for that. We might see paid contests soon in the future if it keeps seeing this type of interest so keep it up.

How it works

The contest may seem a little confusing at first, Sim Sports? What’s that, are we getting some NBA2k games going on and betting on those? No, that’s not the case here. This is how it all works:

  1. Players will be randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season
  2. Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool. The Opponent Matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
  3. Only games where players scored more than 0 points will be available to be assigned stats. No need to worry about DNPs.
  4. Scores will be slowly revealed throughout the night. We still want you all to have a little bit of a sweat.
  5. Games assigned will be viewable on this landing page in the Games Assigned Section below.
  6. Winners will receive site credit and potentially other prizes each night and entry will be 100% Free!

Find official rules HERE

Where is the Edge?

At first glance you have to ask yourself where is the edge in a contest like this? It’s completely random so there shouldn’t be an edge, but like table games there is a definitely an edge behind this contest. The main way to look at this is from a ceiling perspective. What players can possibly give me the most fantasy points. Now let’s take a look at the lineup that can give you the highest score for tonight. Wait hold on Joey, how the hell do you know what the highest scoring lineup for tonight will be? Well, since we already know what each player’s ceiling is because all of these games have already happened, we can pick the lineup that can give you the most total points. Will this end up being the highest scoring lineup for the night, no but this is the lineup that has the potential to score the most points.

Let’s first see who the highest scorer at each position:

 PG: Ben Simmons 84.4

 SG: D’Angelo Russell 82.3

 SF: Lebron James 88.4

 PF: Anthony Davis 81.4

 C: Karl Anthony Towns 83

Next let’s take a look at each top value play:

 PG: Shake Milton 14.2x and Shaq Harrison 14.51x

 SG: Furkan Korkmaz 13.7x and Deandre’ Bembry 13x

 SF: Juancho Hernangomez 13.74x and Kevin Porter 13.45x

 PF: Skal Labissiere 16.36x and Trey Lyles 13.28x

 C: Boban Marjanovic 15.97x and JaVale McGee 14.74x

I’m not giving you a player pool for this. I’m just giving out data so everyone knows the risks of each play and which plays make more sense and which plays are you capping your ceiling. This is all random number generated plays but you should at least be putting yourself in the best situation to cash.

Best Possible Lineup

Let’s take a look at the ceiling lineup for tonight. There is an extremely low probability it hits but we can calculate the max amount of points able to score for tonight’s slate. I think it’s just a fun thing to look at.

PG: Ben Simmons (84.4 fantasy points), Jeff Teague (53.5 fantasy points)

SG: D’Angelo Russell (82.3 fantasy points), Alec Burks (62.4 fantasy points)

SF: Andrew Wiggins (65.5 fantasy points), Kevin Porter (51.1 fantasy points)

PF: Kristaps Porzingis (75.6 fantasy points), Skal Labissiere (58.9 fantasy points)

C: Andre Drummond (81.6 fantasy points)

If every player hits their potential ceiling then they will score a total of 615.3 fantasy points!

Point Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 30.6 (Jordan Poole), 1Q: 42.80, Median: 48.40, Mean: 49.35, 3Q: 52.60, Max: 84.40

  1. Ben Simmons84.4
  2. Trae Young: 72.6
  3. Luka Doncic70.9
  4. Dejounte Murray55.4
  5. Chris Paul55.0

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.47 (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 9.11, Median: 10.31, Mean: 10.33, 3Q: 11.03, Max: 14.95(Trae Young)

  • There are two Point Guards that are over $5000 with an SD less than 10. Chris Paul (9.11) and Collin Sexton (8.21) The higher the salary the harder it is to get such a low SD. So I would say he is the safest PG play on the slate to pay up for.
  • Trae Young has the worst SD of all point guards tonight with 14.95. This means he is extremely high risk high reward. If you want to take a chance on a player getting you a ton of fantasy points or not hit value he is your guy.
  • There are two players over 12 SD that is under $4000. This will classify them in the GPP category tonight. If you want to take a risk on a cheap guy you can look at Shake Milton (13.3x) and Shaq Harrison (12.56x)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 30% (Alex Caruso), 1Q: 42%, Median: 48%, Mean: 47%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 55% (Mike Conley)

6x%: Min: 13% (Luka Doncic), 1Q: 24%, Median: 32%, Mean: 29.16%, 3Q: 36%, Max: 39% (Coby White)

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Luka Doncic1080051.4726.370.911.660.410.130.02
Trae Young1000046.971172.614.950.420.190.06
Ben Simmons920042.959.284.412.920.410.170.05
  • Luka Doncic is the safest of the 3 spend up guys. Lowest SD and highest 5x%. Even though he has the lowest ceiling of the 3.
  • Trae Young is the GPP of the 3. High SD meaning high range of outcomes and highest 6x%.
  • There are 3 players with a 5x% of 55%. (Mike Conley, Derrick White and Coby White). These 3 are then the top value point guards on the slate. Coby White also has the highest 6x% 7x% 8x% 9x% and 10x% of the 3 guys. He will be the center piece of a majority of my lineups tonight, and be in at least 3 of my lineups.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %8x %
Mike Conley460024.355.741.79.760.550.370.210.10
Coby White420022.366.247.210.650.550.390.250.15
Derrick White430022.633.750.99.230.550.370.210.10
Kris Dunn430022.395.243.39.450.540.360.210.10
Tomas Satoransky480024.785.750.110.050.530.340.190.09
Jeff Teague440022.820.253.511.030.530.370.230.13

Shooting Guards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 33.80 (Avery Bradley), 1Q: 43.25, Median: 48.35, Mean: 51.34, 3Q: 59.12, Max: 82.30 (D’Angelo Russell)

  1. D’Angelo Russell (82.6)
  2. Zach Lavine (73.7)
  3. Alec Burks (62.4)
  4. DeMar DeRozan (62.3)
  5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (60)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 7.040 (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), 1Q: 9.352, Median: 9.705, Mean: 9.869, 3Q: 10.615, Max: 12.790 (D’Angelo Russell)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them.

5x%: Min: 35% (Cody Martin), 1Q: 45.50%, Median: 50.50%, Mean: 48.41%, 3Q: 52.00%, Max: 53% (Jordan Clarkson)

6x%: Min: 21% (Cody Martin), 1Q: 25.50%, Median: 29.50%, Mean: 29.18%, 3Q: 32%, Max: 36% (Delon Wright)

  • We have 6 guys to pay up for tonight.
  • The safest pay up player is DeMar DeRozan. Lowest SD and highest 5x%, but that is sacrificed by his low 6x%.

The highest upside play is D’Angelo RussellHighest ceiling, highest SD, highest 6x and 7x%.

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Zach LaVine79004012.673.711.870.520.270.10
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.38.870.530.220.05
D’Angelo Russell750038.119.282.312.790.520.300.13
Donovan Mitchell710036.115.259.29.670.520.250.08
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander690034.5210.26010.120.500.250.09
Devonte’ Graham670034.0611.958.910.780.520.280.12
  • As you can see by the list the top 9 SGs for 5x is filled with payup guys which we don’t normally see. It’s a great time to pay up for those guys instead. I would probably only pay down for Jordan Clarkson or Delon Wright if you really want to.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Jordan Clarkson440022.72.7449.360.530.350.19
DeMar DeRozan760038.6219.562.38.870.530.220.05
Donovan Mitchell710036.115.259.29.670.520.250.08
Delon Wright400020.581.548.59.650.520.360.22
Josh Richardson500025.535.442.89.740.520.320.17
Devonte’ Graham670034.0611.958.910.780.520.280.12
D’Angelo Russell750038.119.282.312.790.520.300.13
Kevin Huerter500025.432.4549.830.520.320.17
Zach LaVine79004012.673.711.870.520.270.10

Small Forward

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 27.90 (Nicolas Batum), 1Q: 38.77, Median: 44.50, Mean: 45.60, 3Q: 47.73, Max: 88.40

  1. Lebron James (88.4)
  2. Andrew Wiggins (65.5)
  3. Tobias Harris (57.9)
  4. Kevin Porter (51.1)
  5. Tim Hardaway Jr (48.3)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.990 (Danilo Gallinari) , 1Q: 8.235, Median: 9.320, Mean: 9.256, 3Q: 9.810, Max: 12.670 (Caleb Martin)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 30% (Denzel Valentine), 1Q: 41.50%, Median: 48.50%, Mean: 46.29%, 3Q: 52.25%, Max: 55% (Dorian Finney-Smith)

6x%: Min: 7% (Lebron James), 1Q: 24%, Median: 28%, Mean: 27.96%, 3Q: 34.25%, Max: 38% (Tim Hardaway Jr)

  • These guys are the top 8 guys to hit value today sub $5000

 

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %
Dorian Finney-Smith400021.01245.48.160.550.36
Tim Hardaway450023.69248.310.460.550.38
Glenn Robinson420021.973.442.99.320.540.36
Joe Ingles450023.467.241.99.470.540.35
Cedi Osman400020.71.2398.260.530.34
De’Andre Hunter420021.780.446.39.810.530.36
Rudy Gay400020.381.441.69.060.520.34
Cam Reddish400020.246459.790.510.35
  • Tim Hardaway Jr is tied for the highest 5x% and has the highest 6x%. He is one of the top plays on the slate. He also has the 5th highest ceiling for a SF on the slate.

Power Forwards

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 32.10 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 42.98, Median: 48.70, Mean: 51.24, 3Q: 59.08, Max: 81.40

  1. Anthony Davis (81.40)
  2. Kristaps Porzingis (75.6)
  3. John Collins (67.2)
  4. LaMarcus Aldridge (66.3)
  5. Lauri Markkanen (60.4)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent. 

Min: 6.77 (Royce O’Neale), 1Q: 9.137, Median: 9.845, Mean: 10.237, 3Q: 11.193, Max: 14.520 (Kristaps Porzingis)

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 32% (Luke Kornet), 1Q: 45.75%, Median: 51%, Mean: 48.45%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 53% (Thaddeus Young)

6x%: Min: 15% (Anthony Davis), 1Q: 28%, Median: 30.5%, Mean: 29.88%, 3Q: 34.25%, Max: 37% (James Johnson)

 

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Anthony Davis1090051.9223.881.412.930.420.150.03
John Collins870041.2218.167.210.700.420.150.03
Kristaps Porzingis790039.9212.175.614.520.510.300.14
LaMarcus Aldridge730036.9810.366.312.090.520.290.12
Kevin Love680034.48.759.611.150.510.280.12
Al Horford600030.6411.3519.140.530.280.11
  • These are the “Studs” for the PF.
  • I will be Kristaps Porzingis over John Collins all day. Higher ceiling, higher 5x%, higher 6x% higher 7x%. Their salaries probably should be switched or just averaged out. I will be fading John Collins in all my lineups.
  • Anthony Davis is a great play but I will probably only play him if I already have Porzingis in my lineup or the lineup just falls on him.
NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Thaddeus Young440022.745.748.79.520.530.350.20
Maxi Kleber410021.083.841.78.270.530.340.18
Al Horford600030.6411.3519.140.530.280.11
Nerlens Noel420021.610.237.89.250.530.350.20
Kyle Kuzma400020.54443.49.060.520.350.21
Eric Paschall460023.444.651.610.550.520.350.20
  • Al Horford is one of the “studs” that ended up in the top value and a great pair with my favorite PF play Porzingis.

Centers

Ceiling

Ceiling is important to check out to see which guys will be able to score the most fantasy points for you tonight. Even though it’s not extremely likely to hit their ceiling it’s still important to look at for a tie breaker to see who will possibly score you the most fantasy points on the night.

Min: 33.60 (Damian Jones), 1Q: 44.00, Median: 51.10, Mean: 53.91, 3Q: 60.60, Max: 83.00

  1. Karl-Anthony Towns (83)
  2. Andre Drummond (81.6)
  3. Joel Embiid (78.3)
  4. Tristan Thompson (66.3)
  5. Clint Capela (61.2)

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is essentially how far away are the majority of the points scored from the mean. So say a SD of a player is 10, this means that 65% of outcomes will come within 10 fantasy points of the mean and 95% of the outcomes will come within 20 fantasy points (2 SDs) of the mean. Why is this important you may ask? Well the lower the SD the more consistent a player is. The higher the SD the more range of outcomes a player will have, which will make him less consistent.

Min: 8.820 (Willy Hernangomez), 1Q: 9.348, Median: 10.375, Mean: 10.696, 3Q: 11.797, Max: 14.180 (Joel Embiid)

  • Wendell Carter Jr is the only center with a SD under 10 and a price tag under $5000. Center is another spot you really want to nail, especially with how many can hit 5x value and have huge ceilings. I want to go with a safe guy but still have the upside.
  • Joel Embiid has the highest SD for a center with 14.180 but he is still considered a safe plat for me with a 5x% of 43% and a 6x% of 20%. Both numbers are higher than Andre Drummond and Karl-Anthony Towns. It’s a close call between the two.

 

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Karl-Anthony Towns1060049.2627.28311.970.380.120.02
Andre Drummond1000046.9813.781.613.580.410.170.05
Joel Embiid960045.49578.314.180.430.200.06

5x% and 6%

These measures are important to see the chances of hitting value on tonight’s slate. To make these averages better I have gotten rid of everyone with less than a 30% chance to hit 5x because they are just not worth the play unless you are feeling crazy enough to play them

5x%: Min: 32% (Willy Hernangomez), 1Q: 42.5%, Median: 50%, Mean: 47%, 3Q: 52%, Max: 56% (Cody Zeller)

6x%: Min: 12% (Karl-Anthony Towns), 1Q: 22%, Median: 31%, Mean: 28.6%, 3Q: 35.25%, Max: 37% (Cody Zeller)

  • Center is an extremely deep position.
  • Cody Zeller is the top value play at center tonight leading the way in every value category with the 10th highest ceiling and a low SD as well.

 

NameSalaryAVGFloorCeilingStdDev5x %6x %7x %
Cody Zeller450023.925.255.39.610.560.370.22
Willie Cauley-Stein410021.543.1388.940.550.370.21
Dwight Powell420021.726.3459.370.530.360.21
Dwight Howard410021.222.9419.800.530.360.22
Clint Capela760038.758.961.212.740.520.300.13
JaVale McGee390019.871.857.49.550.520.360.22
Marquese Chriss460023.423.747.311.160.520.350.22

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