Oh, we got a good one in the West this year. With Durant sidelined with a calf injury and no timetable to return this is going to be a close battle as the two best back courts in the league go up against each other and let’s see who comes out ahead.
Key Injuries
Kevin Durant is out game 1 and likely out game 2 because he won’t be reevaluated until Thursday. Portland’s only chance to win this series is if they steal a game with Durant out. Without knowing the status of Durant for game 2 they really need to steal game 1 to be sure they can get a win on the road before Durant is back.
There are rumors that Boogie Cousins will be back this series but I just don’t believe it. It’s been almost a month since the initial Quad tear in game 2 of the Clippers series. We never got the full report on how bad his torn quad was but in my experience from my rehab background (My day job) it will take at least 2 months minimum for him to get back to full strength. In my opinion the only way he’s back before then is if he’s rushed back because it’s playoffs. The good news was the injury never required surgery so that means it wasn’t a bad tear. Game 7 would mark 6 weeks for him since the injury which is the earliest I expect him back.
Rodney Hood went down with knee injury after getting blindsided by a screen which was not called out by his teammate. It looked as if he hyperextended his knee but the MRI came back clean and is now day-to-day He has been a key part of the run being made by this Portland team. They will need the full strength of their bench in order to come out on top of this series. When Hood is scoring early in the fourth this gives Dame the rest he needs to take control of the end of games. Looks like the offical diagnosis for Hood is a bone bruise in the knee and he is questionable for game 1.
Fun Narratives
Flashback to the summer. Durant went on CJ McCollum’s podcast and laughed right in his face when CJ said they could contend with the Warriors for a championship. Now Durant is watching from the sideline as McCollum is coming off his best game of his playoffs. I know there is going to be some trash talking on the sidelines after CJ hits a 3, he’s going to turn around right to the Warriors bench and stare down Durant. He’s not forgetting about that moment and the star he is slowing becoming; he should embrace this moment to the max. You know how I love revenge narratives and this might top revenge narratives. I’ll call it an “I told you so” narrative. If McCollum doesn’t come out playing great, I’ll be surprised.
It is the battle of the Currys. Steph will win this battle but it’ll be fun to watch and might give Seth a little more to fight for. If hood doesn’t play Seth should have more of a scoring role off the bench and wants to prove himself to his brother. Might not be a big narrative but it’s something fun to watch.
Keys to winning
The bench for Portland will be the X factor in this game. The only bench worse than the Warriors this year was the Rockets. Steph Curry was bailed out by the Warriors bench out playing the Rockets due to just horrible defensive by them. This won’t happen against the Trailblazers. Guys like Collins, Hood, Turner, and Curry have really stepped up this post season and are the reason the Blazers are where they are. Terry Stotts was smart instead of just playing Aminu his normal minutes when he couldn’t deal with Millsap inside he ended up playing Collins more who had a better defensive matchup vs Millsap. This was one of the keys to them winning game 7 and the series. You need depth to adjust your game plan, with little depth you can’t make the changes needed to win the game or series. If you have more to work with there’s more adjustment opportunities to out coach the other team.
Even with Durant down the Warriors still have an amazing core 4 in Curry, Klay, Green, and Iggy. Curry and Klay need to both score 30 points a night in order to hold down the fort until Durant gets back. Those guys have won championships before together but the only difference is they don’t really have anymore players to back them up. In this league all you have to go is 7 or 8 deep. Which means Looney and Bogut splitting time at center to contain on of the best offensive rebounders in the league in Kanter. Curry can’t end the first half again with 0 points or no way they come out ahead in this one. He needs to get hot early or they won’t be able to handle Dame who comes out hot after halftime leading the league in third quarter scoring at 9.5 points and third in second half points with 14.4.
Betting
Now that I have discussed some of the key points in this series let’s get down to what truly matters, gambling! I know this is the only reason a lot of you guys clicked this link.
We do all our betting at karma HERE at my mybookie.
The Blazers are currently priced at +410 and the Warriors are -550. I’m actually surprised by this number. With the health of Kevin Durant in question and no real news if he wont play until after game 2 there’s no reason for the Warriors to be -550 favorites. Yes, we saw the Warriors take care of business with no Durant but there are a couple issues with what we saw from the end of game 5 and all of game 6. In the final 8 minutes of game 5 Harden only scored 2 points. They had their opportunity to take game 5 and maybe take the series but they choked big time. Game 6 they received a huge break with curry picking up early fouls and he didn’t record a point in the first half. Rockets should have blown the warriors out of the arena especially at home with the crowd behind them. They abysmal play on defense made them choke this game away once again to the Warriors. CJ McCollum has been great defensively allowing 21.0 points per 48 minutes to shoot guards which is the best out of any team against shooting guards. Which puts the main scoring role into 2 time MVP Steph Curry to lead the team to victory. Which ain’t too bad if you ask me. I’ll take the overs on Steph’s scoring prop.
IF Portland steals one of these first 2 games on the road with Durant out, I would bet on them to win this series especially if we still get good odds. (+300).
There are some exact series finishes I was looking at for nice payout. this should be a long series and I think winner wins on their home floor.
I like Blazers winning 4-2 for +900 odds.
I like Warriors winning 4-3 for +350 odds.
For game 1 I like the Blazers covering a 7.5 points spread with them going over the 219 game total.
Make sure to check out my articles tomorrow for all your prop game needs!
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