What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Value Plays article. In this article, I will be focusing solely on DraftKings. Always remember that the value on DraftKings is not always the value on FanDuel, or any other site you are playing on. If you haven’t signed up for core plays yet, make sure to do so by clicking here. We have daily, weekly, monthly, and season-long packages. You can try us out for as little as $5!
Value is mainly determined by two things: injury news or lazy pricing. A player could be underpriced because salaries came before injury news. A site can also be lazy and not raise the price of a player who has been playing way above their price, and getting the minutes to prove it’s sustainable.
If you are familiar with NBA DFS you know the best value could open up minutes before the slate locks. So, make sure to check back later in the day, the best value plays for the slate may change depending on if we get injury news we were not expecting or that we were waiting for all day. I will be providing an update at the bottom of the article if there is a need for it. There will be times we receive news less than an hour before lock, that is where it is vital to join our discord for free. Whether it is on the free side or the premium side there will always be people discussing injury news and how it has impacted the slate.
Darius Garland $4,600:
I would expect Garland to be chalk tonight after the news that he will not have a minutes limit tonight. Garland is averaging 28.6 DK points per game this season and normally is priced in the low $6000 or high $5000s. This means we are getting over a $1000 discount on him tonight. The 5th overall pick in last year’s draft is having a breakout season and should never be priced this low. DK did a great job yesterday with Clippers players being priced up but dropped the ball on Garland who has played three games since returning from injury. Prior to his injury Garland commanded a 21% usage rate, resulting in a 29.5% assists rate and helping the Cavs achieve a 108.6 offensive rating. He also had a true shooting % of 62%. Garland was flirting with the top 10 in all of those categories around the league for a starting guard. Now he should get back to full strength and dominate tonight.
The projections portal is showing Darius Garland as a great value play on the slate and projected for 24.10 fantasy points. He is currently only projected for 27 minutes since the news of his minutes limit being lifted was just announced. So expect at least 30 minutes for him tonight.
Cody Zeller $3,400:
Zeller is finally back in the starting lineup tonight against the Indiana Pacers. Since returning from his Hand injury three games ago he has been able to surpass 20 DK points in two of those games. I love playing cheap starting centers and he is going to be needed to play big minutes tonight to matchup against Turner and Sabonis. Zeller has been one of the top rebounders in the league over the last two games. Even though it is a small sample size, he ranks 15th in rebounding percentage over this time comparing players who have seen at least 15 minutes per game. The Hornets have also seen a 122 offensive rating with Zeller on the floor. I am not expecting a huge game from Zeller but if he sees 20+ minutes as a starter he makes for a great play tonight.
Zeller gets a great matchup against the Pacers who are allowing the 6th most rebounds to centers in the league and 2.3 blocks per game. Both categories needed for Zeller to reach a ceiling game. Pacers are also bottom 6 in the league in rebounding% and middle of the pack for pace and second-chance points. While also allowing the bottom ten points in the paint. All a traditional centers dream.
The projections portal is showing Cody Zeller as a great value play on the slate and projected for 17.71 fantasy points.