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Joey’s Prizepicks Palooza Thursday May 16th

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Plays of the Day

Enes Kanter UNDER 30.3 fantasy prop: I got burned by him last game when I wrote him up as an over but I’m sticking to my guns and writing him up again. You look at Kanter’s stats last game and think, “Wow he actually had a great game” 16 rebounds to go along with 10 points giving him a double double, but those stats don’t tell the whole story. Check out his pick and roll game HERE. His defense on pick and rolls will be detrimental to the success of this team unless he changes his game plan. There is no reason to be sitting in the paint on a screen and roll on arguably the best shooter in NBA history. There’s a reason Curry was 9-15 from 3 last game and if he doesn’t change I could see an early benching coming for him like we saw with Aminu last series.

Collins OVER 20.0 fantasy prop: A perfect correlation play is Collins over. Less time going to Kanter means only one thing; more time to Collins. He only saw 18 minutes which is a low since Portland went away from Aminu and started giving Collins more run. Before that he had 3 straight 20+ games during those increased minutes. With Kanter (I assume) and Aminu playing less minutes Collins should be right back to his 20+ minutes where he is getting way more that 1 fantasy point per minute, 1.27 fantasy points per minute to be exact.

Trap of the Day

My trap of the day will be a little different today. We saw the all the Warriors starters plus looney all get 3 or more blocks and steals except Curry. Blocks and Steals are a way to have variance in fantasy scoring. So we saw all these guys go over their fantasy prop because of this or saw inflated points which they most likely wont see again. 21 possessions for Portland ended in blocks or steals which is horrible especially trying to take down the number 1 team in the West. Which is part of the reason why they lost by 22 points. Dame had 7 turnovers and had a 30% turnover rate which are both playoff highs and either first or second for the whole season. I’m expecting a much better game from Portland leading to less of these “variance” stats. So just don’t look at the game log and assume they will go over. You have to dig a little into them.

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