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Joey’s WNBA Props: MKF & PP 08/13

Welcome back DFS grinders to another edition of my WNBA Props article. We have just a two-game one game is a projected blowout and one game is projected to be a fun high paced shootout.

Vegas Odds

All odds based on mybookie.today and lines are subject to change. Lines taken at 11:15 am EST

Lynx are currently a 6 point favorite over the Liberty. With a 158 game total.

Aces are currently a 12.5 point favorite over the Dream, with a 153 point game total.

Favorite Plays

Prizepicks likes to move lines pretty quickly so make sure you get these plays in early. We’ve already seen plenty of line movement with plays already being posted but there is still pretty good value out there to take advantage of.

Elizabeth Williams UNDER 24.0 fantasy points: She started at 22.0 which I was on the fence about but has moved up to 24.0 so it’s time to go under. She has gone over 24 fantasy points in 11 out of 24 games this season and let’s see how she has arrived at that point and has seen these ceiling games. In those 10 games, she has 8 out of those 11 games she has gone over 3 B/S and has only experienced a ceiling game one time with zero B/S. Only 6 players all year have gone over 3 B/S against the Aces on the road. We also have a blowout risk with a 12.5 spread so Williams could easily see sub 30 minutes. As well we see Willaims only averages 21.4 FFPG in loses compared to 30.4 FFPG in wins. In all 5 wins, she has gone over 24 fantasy points so that decreases her odds of hitting the over which makes sense because if the other team is hitting a majority of their shots then there are less rebounding opportunities for Williams who only has a 9.7% rebounding rate. Her high rebounding games come from opportunity rather than great games percentage-wise. Aces play at a high pace but shoot at the 4th high FG% and highest 3pt%. I’ll take her under until 22.0 and switch to the over at 20.0.

Odyssey Sims OVER 30.0 fantasy points: She was 28.0 last night when we got her but I still like the over here. I know it’s not always good to continue to pound the over after you get someone at a discount but if I didn’t get her at 28.0 last night then I would be perfectly happy taking her at 30.0 and here’s why. Just taking a look at recency bias this play may scare you but I have no reason to buy into it, yes Seimone Augustus is back with the team but that really hasn’t affected Sims fantasy production, what has influenced it more is the decrease in minutes. She has only seen under 30 minutes in 6 games this year and 4 of them have come in the last 5 games. Sims has been able to overcome this even with the decrease in minutes averaging  1.04 fantasy points per minute while only averaging 0.87 fantasy points per minute on the season so obviously a decrease in minutes would lead to a decrease in fantasy production. She is also averaging 7 more fantasy points per game in losses and 5 more fantasy points per game in wins; this game the Lynx are road favorites which build in perfectly to Sims. All this combined with the amazing matchup should be an easy over. I’ll take her over until 31.5 and switch to the under at 33.0.

MKF Play

Hartley is in a great spot similar to Nurse and has produced 19.5+ points in 3 straight games and saw 32 minutes last games. If she sees 30+ minutes she will easily go over here.

Sims has been tearing it up the past 3 games with 28.5+ points in all 3 even with not always seeing the 30+ minutes she is used too. In a smash spot and high paced matchup, she should be able to get to 30+ here pretty easy.

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