Oklahoma City Thunder (-135)
There are a few lines that simply don’t make sense tonight, and this is one of them. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the best teams in the NBA through 21 games, ranking fourth in the NBA in net offensive and defensive rating (6.5). The Detroit Pistons have also found some success this season, ranking 10th in the league in net off and def rating (2.3). Detroit has featured a slightly better offense, while Oklahoma City owns the best defense in the NBA. The only concern is the Thunder’s inability to play on the road at times, while the Pistons have been a better offense at home. Still, Detroit doesn’t feature the type of defense that can slow down Russell Westbrook or Paul George, while a combination of PG13, Jerami Grant, and Steven Adams will likely be able to slow down Detroit best two scorers – Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Overall, this is simply a bad matchup for Detroit, and Oklahoma City should be a slightly larger favorite.
Bet 3 units on Oklahoma City -2.5 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers (+110)
This is another line that is based on home/road splits, but still seems off. The New Orleans Pelicans feature a 9-2 record at home, while the Los Angeles Clippers own a 6-6 record on the road. Teams simply haven’t been able to keep up with New Orleans’ offense, but Los Angeles is averaging 117.4 points per game on the road. Overall, the Clippers ranks fifth in the NBA in net off and def rating (4.9), while the Pelicans rank only 15th in the same category (1.3). The Pelicans are averaging 125.3 points per game in their wins and only 110.3 points per game in their losses. They are also allowing only 112.5 points per game in their wins and 119.8 points per game in their losses. Los Angeles features an above average defense and a top-five offense in the NBA this season. They have multiple paths to victory, even in New Orleans, but I’m still looking to take the safety net of the two points rather than taking the moneyline here.
Bet 3 units on Los Angeles +2 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+205)/Brooklyn Nets (-255)
The under in this game would be significantly more appealing if this game was being playing in Cleveland, but I believe we can still take advantage of it in Brooklyn. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets play at two of the slowest paces in the NBA this season, ranking 28th and 24th in the league in pace, respectively. Both teams feature below average defenses, although that may not matter as Brooklyn ranks 14th and Cleveland ranks only 26th in offensive rating. These two teams are combining to average only 211.7 points per game, and they could see limited scoring opportunities because of the pace in this game. Furthermore, Cleveland has scored 95 or fewer points in each of their last four games, and those games are averaging a total of only 201 points. Brooklyn is averaging 191 total points per game over their last two games (non-OT), as well. This is the perfect game to feature a plethora of poor offense, leading to the under.
Bet 2 units on Cleveland/Brooklyn UNDER 211.5 to win 1.8 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Denver/Toronto OVER 218.5, Washington ML, and Houston ML to win 9.8 units (+488)