Memphis Grizzlies (+195)/New Orleans Pelicans (-245)
This is another game that we can likely predict the over based on the moneyline/spread. These two teams play completely different styles of basketball, while the New Orleans Pelicans love pushing the pace and scoring, while the Memphis Grizzlies slow down the pace and focus more on defense. New Orleans has looked outstanding at home this season, though, where they own a 10-3 record. They’re sizeable favorites, and they are averaging 125.8 points per game in their 13 wins this season. They’re also averaging 123.3 points per game in New Orleans. Furthermore, only four (15.4%) of their games have scored fewer than 218 points this season. Memphis will feature one of the best defenses they have seen, though, and they’re allowing only 104.5 points per game on the road this season. With that being said, New Orleans doesn’t feature a defense that can stop anyone, meaning they will have to score to win. In New Orleans, they have the offensive firepower to score against anyone, and this is a strong bet with the Pelicans being such large favorites.
Bet 3 units on Memphis/New Orleans OVER 217.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Miami Heat (-360)
This pick is less about the Miami Heat and more about the Phoenix Suns. They have featured one of the worst teams in the NBA with Devin Booker and T.J. Warren injured, and that duo may be out again tonight. The Suns are averaging 93.0 points per game without those two in the lineup, and they’re shooting well under 50% from the field. In four games without the duo, they also own a -77 point differential, losing each game by at least 14 points. The Heat aren’t an elite team on the road, but they are averaging 110.4 points per game away from home. They will be without Hassan Whiteside tonight, but there’s no reason to believe there will be a significant drop off in play to Bam Adebayo. Furthermore, Miami could potentially get Goran Dragic back tonight, adding that much more to their rotation. Regardless of who plays, Miami has a significant advantage over a team that is guaranteed to be without their star in Booker.
Bet 3 units on Miami -8 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Detroit Pistons (+145)
This is a simple pick of a home underdog playing against a team that has struggled to travel. The Detroit Pistons have been a significantly better team at home this season, where they own a 9-4 record, as opposed to a 4-5 record on the road. They also feature a +0.8 point differential in Detroit. They get a matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who own a 4-8 record on the road, as opposed to a 13-1 record at home. Their splits are night and day, as they feature a +8.9 point differential in Philadelphia, and it drops to -6.4 on the road. The Sixers have a few solid road wins, but they also own losses to the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic on the road. Furthermore, these two teams have split the series 1-1 thus far, with each team winning their respective home game. I feel you can take a chance on the Pistons moneyline, but I’m siding with the points in this situation.
Bet 2 units on Detroit +1.5 spread to win 1.8 units (-110)
Note: Joel Embiid has been ruled out tonight. Detroit’s moneyline can now safely be played, as well.
Parlay 2 units on Sacramento -3 spread, New Orleans -5.5 spread, and Denver/Charlotte OVER 219.5 to win 12 units (+600)