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NBA DFS 1/2/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Washington Wizards

The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate. These two teams rank ninth and first in the NBA in pace, respectively. Washington has struggled offensively, ranking 19th in the NBA in offensive rating thus far. With that being said, Atlanta only ranks 25th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Wizards are currently -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 230 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 118.3 points.

The Wizards have multiple players that will feature plenty of ownership on this slate. Tomas Satoransky has started each of Washington’s last two games, playing 32 and 39 minutes. In those games, he was able to score 35.5 and 24 DK points. On the season, Satoransky is averaging 11.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals on a per-36 minutes basis. He’ll likely feature the most ownership of any Wizards player. Bradley Beal will also command ownership, as he takes over as the focal point of the offense with Wall out. Through 37 games, Beal owns a 27.3% usage rating, but that’s expected to increase to nearly 33% with Wall out. In his last two games without Wall, Beal scored 42.5 and 54.75 DK points in 38.0 minutes per game. He also recently scored 40 points with 11 rebounds, 15 assists, and one block (80.75 DK points) against the Phoenix Suns with Wall out of the lineup. Furthermore, Beal is averaging a 32.5/8.0/6.0/1.5 line (54.5 DK points) in 40.5 minutes per game against Atlanta this season. Thomas Bryant has taken on a new role recently, and his role should stay the same with Markieff Morris and Dwight Howard ruled out tonight. He has played 36 and 30 minutes in his last two games, scoring 41.5 and 33 DK points in those games. Bryant is also averaging 17.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.6 blocks on a per-36 minute basis this season. He’s averaging 1.25 DK points per minute against Atlanta this season, and he should see 30+ minutes once again tonight. Trevor Ariza is the final player that will feature ownership, and he’s my least favorite for cash because of his inconsistencies. With that being said, he’s averaging 14.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.6 steals (30.1 DK points) in 40.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He still comes with a reasonable price tag, and he has played 38+ minutes in each of his last three games. Stacking all four of these players is a viable option in cash games tonight.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking eighth in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who rank only 18th in the league in pace this season. Philadelphia also ranks 12th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks fourth last in the league in defensive rating. The Sixers are currently -4.5 point favorites, and they feature an implied total of 116 points on this slate tonight.

Joel Embiid has caught fire over his last three games, scoring 60+ DK points in each of those games. Overall, he’s averaging 28.3 points, 16.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 3.3 blocks in 36.0 minutes per game over that span. He also posted a 33/17/1/1/3 line (62.25 DK points) in 35.3 minutes against Phoenix in their only matchup this season. Ben Simmons has been a bit of a boom or bust option recently, and he’s averaging 16.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (44.2 DK points) in 32.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Simmons has also posted 50+ DK points in five of his last 10 games, including a 63.25 DK point performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Similarly to Embiid, Simmons performed well in his only matchup against the Suns this season, scoring 47.75 DK points against them. T.J. McConnell has quietly been heating up recently. He comes with an extremely low price tag, but has scored 20+ DK points in each of his last five games. Over that span, he’s averaging 8.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.4 steals (23.5 DK points) in 26.0 minutes per game. McConnell is expected to see similar minutes tonight, and he makes this stack a bit more affordable.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Atlanta Hawks

This game was outlined above, and it’s going to be one of the fastest paced games on the entire slate. The Atlanta Hawks only rank 29th in the NBA in offensive rating this season, but this is an ideal matchup, as the Washington Wizards rank 28th in the league in defensive rating. Surprisingly, the Hawks are +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 230 points. Still, they own an implied total of 111.8 points tonight.

John Collins has been playing at an extremely high level through 20 games this season. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 19.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (40.4 DK points) in 32.4 minutes per game. He has also been playing well for significantly longer than that, as he’s averaging 42.1 DK points per game over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Collins is averaging 43.1 DK points in only 28.3 minutes per game against Washington. Dewayne Dedmon is another big man that should find plenty of success in this matchup. He’s coming back from a foot injury, and he’s averaging 16.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.3 steals (37.6 DK points) in 28.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Dedmon still comes with an extremely low price tag, and he has scored 39.25 and 47.75 DK points in his last two games. He is also averaging 27.8 DK points in only 24.6 minutes per game against Washington this season. Trae Young is another player that has been heating up a bit recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 16.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 1.4 steals (35.5 DK points) in 30.3 minutes per game. He has scored 30+ DK points in nine of his last 10 game, including a 44.5 DK point performance against the Dallas Mavericks. Young hasn’t found the same success against the Wizards as the other two parts of this stack, but he comes with tremendous upside for a reasonable price tag.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Josh Okogie

Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague, and Robert Covington have all been ruled out tonight, opening the door for Okogie to play a bigger role in the rotation. On the season, he’s averaging 6.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.0 assist (14.2 DK points) in only 19.1 minutes per game. He has performed well throughout the season when given the minutes, though.

Tonight, Okogie is expected to see 30+ minutes in the rotation. He certainly comes with risk, but his price tag is entirely too low for his projected minutes and talent level. He gets a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics, but they are also dealing with injuries, as Kyrie Irving has been ruled out tonight. Okogie will likely feature some ownership, and he makes a great salary relief option tonight.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Guillermo Hernangomez

Hernangomez will be forced into bigger minutes with Cody Zeller out tonight. He has been an elite per minute player throughout his career, as he’s averaging 7.4 points and 4.9 rebounds (16.1 DK points) in 13.0 minutes per game on the season. He has also played 23 and 20 minutes in two of his last 10 games, scoring 39 and 21 DK points in those games.

Hernangomez’s role is a bit up in the air at the moment, but he’s expected to see 20-25 minutes tonight. He gets a solid matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who have featured an average defense against the center this season. Hernangomez should continue to dominate while on the court, and he likely won’t need more than minutes in the teens to hit value at his price tag. He’s an elite salary relief option on this slate.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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