NBA DFS 10/24/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems » DFS Karma
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NBA DFS 10/24/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers continue to play at a fast pace, as they lead the NBA in pace early this season. We can anticipate that will continue, as Los Angeles has stated that they want to lead the NBA in pace this season. They get a matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who have been slowing the pace down this season. Still, Phoenix is a team that isn’t afraid to get into shootouts, and that could be the case tonight. The Lakers are currently -4 point favorites in a game set at 236 points, giving them an implied total of 120 points tonight.

The Lakers have a few players that will see increased ownership because of the suspensions to Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo. Kyle Kuzma could feature the highest ownership on the slate. In his only game with Ingram and Rondo, Kuzma scored 52.5 DK points. The game went into overtime, but Kuzma took 25 shot attempts, totaling 37 points with eight rebounds and three assists. LeBron James also attempted 25 shots in that game, and his usage rating increased a significant amount. Overall, he totaled 32 points, eight rebounds, 14 assists, one block, and one steal (67 DK points) in 43 minutes. He’s a player that should have no issues finding success against a young Suns team, as well. Multiple players can be considered to fill out this stack, but Josh Hart makes the most sense as a salary relief option. He has looked outstanding this season, averaging 17.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 block, and 2.3 steals in 32.1 minutes per game. Hart saw 39 minutes in his last game, and he should see plenty of minutes once again tonight. Lonzo Ball and JaVale McGee are two options that can be considered, as well, depending on salary and lineup construction.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have been playing at a below average pace this season, but they will see an uptick in pace tonight. They get a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who rank second in the league in pace this season. Atlanta also ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating, while Dallas ranks third in the league in offensive rating. This is an elite matchup for the Mavericks, who are -1.5 point favorites in a game set at 234.5 points. They feature an implied total of 118 points tonight.

Luka Doncic has taken on a massive role as a rookie for the Dallas Mavericks. He has featured a 25.5% usage rating with Harrison Barnes out, and that should continue tonight. Doncic is averaging 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.0 steal in a team-high 34.7 minutes. He has struggled at times with fouls this season, but Doncic will see 30+ minutes tonight. Wesley Matthews is the most mispriced player for Dallas tonight. He’s still extremely cheap, but owns a 22.2% usage rating in 33.7 minutes per game. Matthews has turned those minutes into 18.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.0 steal per game. He’s averaging 9.7 three-point attempts per game, as well, adding to his value on DraftKings. There are a few options that make sense in this stack, but DeAndre Jordan makes the most sense. He’s locked into the double double bonus on DraftKings, as he’s averaging 17.0 points, 12.7 rebounds, 1.0 steal, and 2.3 blocks in 31.3 minutes per game. Atlanta also doesn’t have any big men that will be able to keep Jordan off of the glass tonight.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Phoenix Suns

This game has already been outlined above. As we know, this will be one of the fastest paced and highest scoring games on the slate. Phoenix is a small underdog in a game set at 236 points, and they feature an implied total of 116 points.

Devin Booker features a ridiculous 34.6% usage rating through three games this season. He’s also locked into big minutes, as he’s averaging 29.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.0 steal in 36.0 minutes per game. Deandre Ayton is another elite option, but he has flashed his floor and ceiling this season. Overall, he’s averaging 14.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 30.0 minutes per game. He struggled with fouls against the Denver Nuggets, scoring 15.5 DK points in only 23 minutes. He has played 30+ minutes in his other two games, though, scoring 47.5 and 45 DK points in those games. Isaiah Canaan is a player that goes overlooked a bit in Phoenix, but he has a defined starting role. He features a usage rating under 20%, and is only averaging 10.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.0 steal per game, but he’s also averaging 30.0 minutes per game. He’s a cheap option, who comes with more than enough upside to hit value at his current price tag.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Justin Holiday

Holiday struggled in his first game this season, totaling 10 points with four rebounds and one assist in 27 minutes. He has seen a new role in his last two games, though, playing 37 and 38 minutes against the Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons. He has also seen a larger role in the offense, as he’s averaging 17.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 2.0 steals (28.8 DK points) in those two games.

Holiday is expected to see a similar role tonight. He’s projected to play minutes in the high-30s, while seeing a usage rating slightly under 20%. Holiday could potentially handle the ball more with Kris Dunn injured. He’s going to be owned at a high rate tonight, and Holiday is a bit of an “avoid at your own risk” type of player, specifically in cash games.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Dorian Finney-Smith

Finney-Smith has seen an expanded role with Harrison Barnes injured early this season. DFS has played 30+ minutes in each of his three games, scoring between 23 and 25 DK points in each of those games. In three games, DFS is averaging 10.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block in 33.3 minutes per game.

Finney-Smith will see the same role again tonight, as Harrison Barnes has already been ruled out of this game. He’ll see roughly 30 minutes with a usage rating slightly above 10%. His limited usage rating limits his upside in tournaments, but DFS is a consistent option, who can safely be used as a salary relief option in cash games.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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