Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Toronto Raptors have been slowing the pace down throughout the season, ranking only 20th in the NBA in pace thus far. They’ll see an uptick in pace tonight, facing off against the Philadelphia 76ers, who currently rank eighth in the league in pace. Toronto also ranks second in the NBA in offensive rating through 2018, while Philadelphia ranks 14th in the league in defensive rating. The Raptors are +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 218.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 105.5 points tonight.
The Toronto Raptors are dealing with a plethora of injuries, as Kyle Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Jonas Valanciunas have all been ruled out, while Serge Ibaka is questionable tonight. Delon Wright has been playing well this season, averaging 6.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.9 assists (14.2 DK points) in only 17.5 minutes per game. He has played 22+ minutes in each of his last three games, scoring 20+ DK points in each of those games. Wright is expected to be locked into 30+ minutes tonight, and there’s very little reason to believe he won’t hit value at his current price tag. Pascal Siakam is making a case for the most improved player this season, averaging 14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.1 steals (29.9 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game. He has played 35 and 37 minutes in his last two games, scoring 38 and 38.75 DK points. He’ll be forced into minutes in the high-30s again tonight, and he’s averaging 1.08 DK points per minute against Philadelphia this season. If he’s healthy, Serge Ibaka can also be considered here. He has been playing at a high level recently, scoring 40+ DK points in three of his last five games. Ibaka is also averaging 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.0 steal (33.5 DK points) in only 27.2 minutes per game against the Sixers this season. If he’s active, Ibaka is likely see 30+ minutes in this game.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Phoenix Suns only rank 19th in the NBA in pace this season, but they get a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who currently rank seventh in the league in pace in 2018. Phoenix only ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive rating this season, but Washington also only ranks 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Suns are +6 point underdogs in a game set at 230 points, but they still own an implied total of 112 points.
Devin Booker has been the top option for the Suns this season, posting a team-high 31.9% usage rating through 22 games. He has looked outstanding since returning from injury, averaging 30.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.0 steal (49.9 DK points) in 36.5 minutes per game. He has scored 47+ DK points in each of those games, as well. T.J. Warren is another player that has caught fire recently, averaging 24.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.2 steals (36.8 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Warren has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last five games, including a 45.25 DK point performance against the New York Knicks. Booker and Warren are the two primary scorers for Phoenix, and they’re a great way to lock in this offense. Richaun Holmes has seen inconsistent minutes this season, but his production is impossible to argue with. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.4 blocks (20.0 DK points) in only 19.2 minutes per game. Over his last 10 games, Holmes is averaging 22.7 DK points per game in only 20.6 minutes per game. He’s expected to play around 20 minutes tonight, and Holmes has flashed elite upside for his price when given those minutes. He comes with quite a bit of risk, but this is a GPP stack, right?
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
I have outlined Wright above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. On the season, he’s averaging 0.81 DK points per minute, and he’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight with Toronto dealing with a plethora of injuries. Wright has also found success against Philadelphia in limited minutes this season. He’s going to be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and he’s an “avoid at your own risk” type of play tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
I have outlined Holmes above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. While Holmes has seen inconsistent minutes, he has scored 27.25, 37.75, 26.5, and 29.25 DK points in 22, 25, 22, and 23 minutes over his last 10 games. He doesn’t need many minutes to dominate on the floor, and he gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards, who have struggled against big men throughout the season. Holmes comes with more risk than a player like Wright, but e makes a great option for his price tag tonight.
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