NBA DFS 12/26/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems » DFS Karma
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NBA DFS 12/26/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Clippers will be playing in one of the fasted paced games on the slate. These two teams currently rank second and ninth in the NBA in pace, respectively. Sacramento also ranks 14th in the NBA in offensive rating this season, while Los Angeles ranks only 24th in the league in defensive rating. The Kings are +5.5 point favorites in a game set at 237.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 116 points tonight.

Nemanja Bjelica has burnt a plethora of people on multiple occasions recently, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t feature plenty of ownership tonight. He has played 30+ minutes in each of his last two games, and he’s expected to see similar minutes with Marvin Bagley out again. In his last three games with 30+ minutes and Bagley out, he’s averaging 11.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.3 blocks (30.3 DK points) in 33.7 minutes per game. Willie Cauley-Stein has also been an extremely consistent option, excluding the blowout loss against the Minnesota Wolves, in which he played only seven minutes. Aside from that game, Cauley-Stein has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last eight games, including a recent 55.25 DK point performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. In those eight games, Cauley-Stein is averaging 38.4 DK points per game. He also scored 33 DK points against Los Angeles in their only matchup this season. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another player that will likely feature ownership, but I’m shifting my focus to De’Aaron Fox here. Similarly to Cauley-Stein, he has been playing at an absurdly high level, excluding his game against Minnesota. Without that game, Fox has scored 40+ DK points in five consecutive games, averaging 22.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 2.8 steals (47.6 DK points) in 34.4 minutes per game. He posted a 17/3/9/1/2 line against Los Angeles in their only matchup this season, as well. I don’t fully expect there to be one chalk stack tonight, and Sacramento will feature plenty of ownership on this slate.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Los Angeles Clippers

This game was mentioned above as one of the fastest paced games on the slate. The Los Angeles Clippers also rank sixth in the NBA in offensive rating in 2018. The Sacramento Kings, on the other hand, rank 22nd in the league in defensive rating. The Clippers are currently -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 237.5 points. They own the highest implied total on the slate at 121.5 points.

There are plenty of options for Los Angeles tonight, and Tobias Harris leads the way. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 26.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.4 assists (43.2 DK points) in 35.1 minutes per game. He has scored between 35 and 59 DK points in each of those games, while also scoring 43 DK points in his only matchup against Sacramento this season. This is a fast paced type of game that Harris tends to thrive in. Danilo Gallinari is another player for the Clippers, who has been playing at an elite level recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 25.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, (40.6 DK points) in 33.2 minutes per game. Gallinari has also scored 40+ DK points in three of those games. He has proven that he comes with elite upside for his price when he’s scoring well, and this game should feature plenty of scoring. Lou Williams can also be considered here, but I’m recommending Montrezl Harrell. Harrell is only averaging 25.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days, but he has turned those minutes into 17.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists (30.9 DK points) per game. He posted a 24/6/1/1 line in 26.3 minutes against Sacramento earlier this season, and he’ll likely be locked in as a small ball, athletic center in this matchup.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking 12th in the NBA in pace through 32 games. They get a plus matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who currently rank third in the league in pace this season. Dallas has struggled to produce points at times in 2018, ranking only 17th in the NBA in offensive rating. With that being said, New Orleans ranks only 25th in the league in defensive rating this season, and they have struggled even more on the road. Dallas is currently a -2.5 point favorite in a game set at 228 points, giving them an implied total of 115.3 points tonight.

Luka Doncic is finally priced up, which could cause his ownership to drop a bit. He has caught fire recently, though, averaging 25.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 1.4 steals (47.3 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 47+ DK points in five of his last seven games, including three games with 50+ DK points. Furthermore, Doncic has been a slightly better fantasy option at home this season. DeAndre Jordan also comes with elite upside for his price tag. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 11.2 points, 18.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (42.3 DK points) in 31.5 minutes per game. He comes with a bit of risk for his price tag, but he has also scored 55.25, 48, and 47.25 DK points in three of his last five games. Jordan only played 24.2 minutes, scoring only 10 DK points, in his only matchup against New Orleans this season, but he comes with unmatched upside for his price tag. Wesley Matthews is currently questionable for this game, but he’s likely leaning more towards probable than doubtful. He’s only averaging 13.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.2 steals (23.5 DK points) in 32.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. On two games ago, Matthews scored 39.25 DK points in 36 minutes against the Golden State Warriors. In his only matchup against the Pelicans this season, Matthews needed only 24.4 minutes to score 27 DK points. He’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, adding upside to an elite tournament stack on this slate.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Monte Morris

Morris has been playing at a high level for quite some time, scoring 25+ DK points in each of his last six games. Over that span, he’s averaging 14.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals (31.6 DK points) in 28.7 minutes per game. The only major concern is that Morris has only played 25 minutes in each of his last two games, although he has exceeded value in each of those games, as well.

He gets a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who have performed well against point guards this season, but have struggled overall defensively. Morris is tentatively expected to play minutes in the high-20s, making him a relatively safe option. He’s a bit too cheap for his recent production, and he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Mason Plumlee

Plumlee has taken on a new role in the Denver Nuggets rotation with Paul Millsap injured. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 9.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block (26.4 DK points) in 29.2 minutes per game. Furthermore, Plumlee is averaging 1.1 DK points per minute this season, and he has been a slightly better option on the road through 31 games.

Overall, Plumlee has been locked into big minutes, and he’s expected to play around 30 minutes tonight. He gets a matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who have featured somewhat of an average defense against big men this season. Plumlee still comes with a reasonable price tag, and he has significantly more upside than that price suggests.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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