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NBA DFS 2/11/19 – Battle of the Bales

Guard

Justin’s Pick: Chasson Randle

Tomas Satoransky has been ruled out for personal reasons tonight, which means Chasson Randle will draw the start. He’s likely the best ball-handler remaining, meaning he should see 30+ minutes in this game. He is coming off of a 25 minute game against the Chicago Bulls, and he was able to score 26.75 DK points in that game. Randle hasn’t necessarily been the best option on a per minute basis, averaging 0.78 DK points per minute through 26 games. With that being said, he only needs around 17-20 DK points to hit value at his current price tag. Randle comes with solid upside while on the court, and this is a plus matchup against the Detroit Pistons tonight. Randle makes an elite salary relief option on this slate.

Jason’s Reaction: I’m willing to bet that Randle’s points per minute will increase with consistent court time. Obviously, that will not happen, but it is most likely so low because his usage rate is down while on the court and his minutes are sporadic. He is a great option tonight.

Jason’s Pick: Zach LaVine

The stars are aligned for Zach LaVine tonight. The Milwaukee Bucks are tough against the guard position in general, but much less stringent on the shooting guard position as compared to the point guard position. That bodes well for LaVine. In the last 10 days, he is averaging 41 fantasy points per game, posting over 40 fantasy points in three consecutive contests, as well as over 50 fantasy points once in those three games. As far as splits are concerned, he is averaging 38.7 fantasy points per game at home as compared to 35.3 on the road. This is a home game. In two games against the Milwaukee Bucks this season, he is averaging 35.1 minutes and 39 fantasy points per game. At his current price tag, it is almost impossible to avoid using Lavine tonight. A 40 plus fantasy point performance seems likely.

Justin’s Reaction: LaVine’s price tag is extremely odd on DraftKings tonight. He’s entirely too cheap, and he makes a great option.

 

Forward

Justin’s Pick: Jabari Parker

This is an article that generally focuses on DraftKings, but this is a play that’s more or less used for FanDuel. Jabari Parker carries a $5.6K price tag on DraftKings, but it drops to only $3.9K on FanDuel. He was involved in the Bobby Portis/Otto Porter Jr. trade, and Parker has played two games with his new team. In those games, he’s averaging 13.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 2.0 steals (41.0 DK points) in 28.6 minutes per game. He’s expected to see similar minutes tonight, and he could be in-line for another 40+ DK point performance. Parker will likely be the highest owned player on FanDuel, and he should be used in 100% of lineups on that site. He makes a solid tournament option on DraftKings, as well, but it may be difficult to fit him in your cash lines for his inflated price tag.

Jason’s Reaction: Parker is a decent option on DraftKings, and an elite option on FanDuel. I half-like this recommendation. Perhaps, even three-quarters like this recommendation?

Jason’s Pick: Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles gets a great matchup tonight against the Miami Heat, a team that ranks in the bottom 10 against both forward positions. In the last 10 days, Lyles is averaging right around six fantasy points per game more than his 2018-19 season average, and he is due for a minutes increase. He has shot at least 50% from the field in four consecutive games, and his peripheral statistics have been on point, as well. Lyles is a scoring big man, and the Heat allow points to big men. Off the bench, the Denver Nuggets’ big man is recording a usage rate right around 22%, which is great considering his price tag. He should see enough minutes tonight to easily hit value, and his lower price tag opens up a world of possibilities as far as lineup construction is concerned.

Justin’s Reaction: Lyles can be considered as long as Paul Millsap is ruled out tonight. If Millsap plays, Lyles likely won’t see enough minutes to hit value. Keep an eye on his status leading up to this game.

 

Center

Justin’s Pick: Andre Drummond

While I love Karl-Anthony Towns tonight, I can’t avoid Andre Drummond. He has been playing at an elite level recently, averaging 21.8 points, 15.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 3.0 blocks, and 1.0 steal (52.0 DK points) in 30.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He played 26 and 23 minutes in two of those games, though. He has played 30+ minutes in five games since returning from injury, and he’s averaging a healthy 53.6 DK points per game in those contests. Furthermore, he has scored 49+ DK points in six of his seven games since returning from that injury. He gets a matchup against the Washington Wizards, who have struggled against centers this season. Washington doesn’t have anyone that can guard Drummond in the post, and he could be in-line for another 20/20 game.

Jason’s Reaction: Again? Nice.

Jason’s Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns

This recommendation should come as no surprise, and Karl-Anthony Towns rarely needs to do much convincing to find his way onto fantasy owners’ radars. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, the second worst team in the league against opposing centers from a DraftKings’ fantasy points perspective. Towns is averaging over 50 fantasy points per game at home this season, and he is one of few players on the slate that has a realistic 80 fantasy point ceiling. Yes, his price tag is high. Yes, there are value options that will open up salary space. Yes, use him, if the money is there.

Justin’s Reaction: Towns isn’t my favorite option at center tonight, but I do love him. I’ll likely be spending up at this position, and using two on DraftKings.

 

Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@thedominatordfs) on Twitter!

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