NBA DFS 2/13/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season. They rank 10th in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Portland Blazers, who only rank 18th in the league in pace through 56 games. Golden State leads the NBA in offensive rating, though, while Portland ranks 16th in the league in defensive rating. The Warriors are -3 point favorite in a game set at 234.5 points, giving them an implied total of 118.8 points tonight.
DeMarcus Cousins has already been ruled out for the game tonight, meaning there are six players for Golden State that can be considered tonight. Kevin Durant’s price tag is a bit low for his production, especially with Cousins off of the court. Durant’s usage rating will see an uptick tonight, and he’s averaging 26.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists (45.1 DK points) in 34.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Durant has found plenty of success against Portland this season, averaging 53.8 DK points in 37.4 minutes per game against them. Stephen Curry is another player that has seen his price tag drop a bit, but he’ll see his role in the offense increase tonight. He has been struggling a bit recently, averaging 20.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.8 steals (39.2 DK points) over the last 10 days. He has flashed 60+ DK point upside over his last 10 games, though. He has also found success against Portland this season, averaging 51.3 DK points in 38.5 minutes per game. Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala can all be considered in cash games tonight, but Kevon Looney makes the best option for his price. His inconsistent role recently has dropped his price tag below $4K, but he’ll see a significantly larger role with Cousins resting tonight. On the season, Looney is averaging 6.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists (19.2 DK points) in 20.4 minutes per game. He’s also averaging 20.3 DK points in 24.4 minutes per game against Portland this season. Looney is expected to see minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight, and he has consistently found success when given the court time. He makes this stack a bit more affordable, but any of these six players can be considered in a Golden State stack tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate. Through 58 games, these two teams rank ninth and 13th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Los Angeles has found offensive success, though, ranking 11th in the league in offensive rating this season. Phoenix, on the other hand, rank only 29th in the NBA in defensive rating in 2018. The Clippers are -8 point favorites in a game set at 230.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 119.3 points.
Lou Williams has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but he comes with elite upside. He leads the Clippers with a 32.6% usage rating, which is also the highest of his career. He’s averaging 23.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists (33.4 DK points) in 26.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He is an elite per minute fantasy player, but has struggled to find consistent minutes throughout the season. He’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, and Williams comes with 50+ DK point upside. He’s also averaging 27.6 DK points in only 20.3 minutes per game against Phoenix this season. Montrezl Harrell has finally been getting relatively consistent minutes, and he’s averaging 16.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.2 blocks, and 1.0 steal (35.4 DK points) in 29.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 30+ DK points in eight of his last nine games, including a 47 DK point performance in his last game. Surprisingly, Harrell is only averaging 26.9 DK points in 24.5 minutes per game against Phoenix, but this is an ideal matchup for him. He comes with significantly more upside than he has displayed, as well. Landry Shamet has been flourishing in his new role with the Clippers. He has played two games for Los Angeles, averaging 16.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (27.4 DK points) in 30.0 minutes per game. He was able to score 26.75 and 28 DK points in those games, flashing consistency and upside for his price tag. The matchup against Phoenix is ideal for Shamet, as they have struggled against guards this season, and his price tag isn’t going to stay this cheap for much longer.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Toronto Raptors have been playing at an average pace this season, ranking 15th in the NBA in pace through 58 games. They’ll see an uptick in pace against the Washington Wizards, who rank eighth in the league in pace thus far. Toronto has looked outstanding on offense this season, as well, ranking sixth in the NBA in offensive rating this season. Washington hasn’t found the same success, ranking only 26th in the league in defensive rating this year. The Raptors are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 232 points, and they own the highest implied total on the slate at 121.3 points.
Kyle Lowry has been far from a consistent option this season, but that has kept his price tag down. He has been playing well recently, though, averaging 17.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (39.6 DK points) in 34.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 44 and 46.5 DK points in two of his last three games. Lowry gets an elite matchup against Washington tonight, and he’s averaging 43.3 DK points in 38.1 minutes per game. Pascal Siakam has found quite a bit of success recently, averaging 18.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals (34.0 DK points) in 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also flashed elite upside recently, scoring 64 DK points in 40 minutes against the Atlanta Hawks. Siakam hasn’t seen his role change with the addition of Marc Gasol, and he’ll continue to play 30+ minutes on a nightly basis. He has found success against Washington this season, as he’s averaging 37.9 DK points in 32.1 minutes per game in three matchups against them. Serge Ibaka has seen his minutes cut a bit recently, but his production has remained. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging only 26.0 minutes per game, but he’s also averaging 16.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (35.1 DK points) per game in that time. He’s still relatively cheap, but he has scored 35+ DK points in seven of his last nine games. He has also scored 42 and 48.75 DK points in two of those games. This trio will come with extremely low ownership on a large slate, but they also comes with tremendous upside in a plus matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Bogdanovic’s price tag on DraftKings is one of the more confusing price tags on the slate. He has seen limited minutes in three of his last 10 games, but he has looked outstanding in full minutes in the other seven games. In those seven contests, he’s averaging 36.6 DK points per game. He has also flashed elite upside, scoring 45.5 and 50.5 DK points in two of those games.
Bogdanovic is expected to play full minutes tonight, meaning he’ll likely see 30+ minutes on the court. He gets a matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who have performed well defensively this season, but this game is expected to score plenty of points. In their only matchup this season, Bogdanovic scored 25.75 DK points in 29.2 minutes per game. He’s cheap enough to safely be used in all leagues on DraftKings. He can also be considered on FanDuel, but his price tag is significantly less appealing there.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Valanciunas has only played one game with his new team – the Memphis Grizzlies. He saw 21 minutes, scoring 23 points with 10 rebounds and two assists (39.5 DK points). He has posted elite per minute numbers the entire season, as he’s averaging 1.4 DK points per minute through 31 games.
Valanciunas will likely see consistent minutes for Memphis, although those minutes are likely to stay in the low-20s. With that being said, he is a player that can easily exceed value at his current price tag in those types of minutes. He gets a great matchup against the Chicago Bulls tonight, who have struggled to defend centers throughout the season. In their only matchup, Valanciunas needed only 13.6 minutes to score 20.3 DK points against Chicago. He’ll see a larger role in the rotation tonight, and he makes an elite option for such a low price tag.
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