NBA DFS 2/13/19 – Battle of the Bales
Justin’s Pick: Lou Williams
Lou Williams has been enjoying an outstanding season, and he boasts the highest usage rating (32.6%) of his career in 2018. He’s relatively cheap, but he’s averaging 1.24 DK points per minute through 52 games. His biggest issue this season has been inconsistent minutes, and his minutes range anywhere from 17 to 38 over his last 10 games. He’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, giving him 40+ DK point upside. He gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who don’t have anyone that is going to be able to keep up with Williams on the court. Through three matchups this season, Williams is averaging 16.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (27.6 DK points) in only 20.3 minutes per game. He should strictly be used in tournaments tonight, as his minutes are simply too inconsistent to trust in cash games, especially on an 11 game slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Williams is likely the best guard option on the slate tonight. Nice recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Klay Thompson
The Portland Trail Blazers are actually a good defensive team, especially against the shooting guard position, so Klay Thompson is going to have his work cut out for him, but so far this season, he has dominated against Damian Lillard and company. On the season, he is averaging 34.6 fantasy points per game, but against the Trail Blazers, that number skyrockets to 42.1. Over his last 10 days, he is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game, as well. Thompson is starting to heat up, and a good matchup against a historically bad defensive team against him is just what he needs to continue this hot streak. Lillard’s defense may force Stephen Curry to pass a little more often than he would like, which opens up shots for Thompson. At his price tag, Thompson has massive upside, especially considering he can get hot from behind the three-point line any given game. He is not consistent enough to strongly consider in cash games, though; stick to tournaments here.
Justin’s Reaction: Did you see Thompson’s finger last night? Disgusting. But then turned out to be nothing. DeMarcus Cousins has also been ruled out tonight, which should open up a few more shots for Thompson. He’s a strong option on this slate.
Justin’s Pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdan Bogdanovic has one of the most ridiculous price tags on DraftKings tonight. He has struggled in three of his last 10 games, playing 22 or less minutes in each of those games. He has looked outstanding in the other seven games, scoring 29+ DK points in each of those games. Overall, he’s averaging 36.6 DK points per game in those seven contests, while flashing 50+ DK point upside. Bogdanovic gets a matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who have performed well defensively this season. With that being said, this game features one of the higher implied totals on the slate, and Bogdanovic has a clear role in the offense. He’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight, and he makes an elite option for a ridiculous price tag tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Rostering both Bogdanovic and Knox opens up a TON of salary for lineup construction tonight. Have fun!
Jason’s Pick: Kevin Knox
The New York Knicks are dying for players to eat minutes, and Kevin Knox is doing just that right now. In the last 10 days, he is averaging 36.1 minutes of court time per game, as well as 22.7 fantasy points per game. In his last two performances, he posted 32.5 fantasy points against the Toronto Raptors and 26 fantasy points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He should start to become a little more consistent of a fantasy option, if his minutes remain high, as he finds his role on the court. Most importantly, in his last two games, Knox shot 37 times. He is shooting a low percentage from the field, and his three-point attempts were horrible against the Cavaliers, but the upside remains. Knox is going to continue to see huge minutes, his usage rate is over 20 percent, and he is throwing up shots like he has nothing to lose (because he doesn’t). The Knicks’ rookie can be rostered in all leagues right now.
Justin’s Reaction: Knox comes with tremendous upside and a low price tag. He’s also averaging over 30 DK points per game against the Philadelphia 76ers this season. I don’t necessarily believe he’s consistent enough for cash games on this large of a slate, but he makes a solid tournament option tonight.
Justin’s Pick: Jonas Valanciunas
I wanted to recommend Deandre Ayton here, but I can’t ignore Jonas Valanciunas at this price tag. He played 21 minutes in his first game with the Memphis Grizzlies, scoring 23 points with 10 rebounds and 2 assists (39.5 DK points). While that type of production is unsustainable over an entire season, Valanciunas is averaging 1.4 DK points per minute through 31 games. He’s expected to play minutes in the low- to mid-20s once again tonight. He gets an elite matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who rank 26th in the NBA against centers this season. Valanciunas should have set minutes with his new team, and he’s only so cheap because of his recent injury. It seems somewhat risky, but he can be considered as a salary relief center in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I prefer spending down at the forward positions and up at the center position tonight, but if you want to spend down at center, JV is a great option.
Jason’s Pick: Andre Drummond
So, has anyone else been wondering who Justin loves at the center position besides Andre Drummond? I know I have! Luckily for all of us, I’m going to recommend Drummond tonight, so Justin has to make a different recommendation. This is not a purely vindictive move, though. Drummond is one of the best center options on the board tonight. He gets a decent matchup against the Boston Celtics, who rank somewhere in the middle against opposing centers from a DraftKings’ points perspective, and over the last 10 days, the Detroit Pistons’ star is averaging 58.3 fantasy points per game. He has over 60 fantasy points in two consecutive games, and it is going to be difficult to slow him down. Drummond is rebounding at a ridiculous rate, and as Justin always says, the 20-20 game is a possibility. Ball is in your court, Justin.
Justin’s Reaction: This is such an awful recommendation on this slate. I’m just joking. I love this recommendation. Drummond is still absurdly cheap on DraftKings, and this is a great matchup. He can safely be used in all leagues tonight.