NBA Stacks of the Day 3/28/18
Shabazz Napier/CJ McCollum/Evan Turner/Jusuf Nurkic
The Portland Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies are two below average paced teams this season, as they rank only 19th and 30th in the NBA in pace. Memphis has been playing at a faster pace since the All Star Break, though, as they rank 16th in the league in pace over that span. Memphis has also featured a below average defense this season, while Portland has featured an above average offense. The Blazers are a -5.5 point favorite in a game set at only 202 points, giving them an implied team total of 103.8 points.
Damian Lillard and Maurice Harkless have been ruled out tonight, meaning other players are going to see increased minutes. Shabazz Napier is an extremely cheap option, who will see 30+ minutes tonight. On the season, Napier is averaging 0.85 DK points per minute. While that is not elite, Napier should easily hit value tonight. Evan Turner is another cheap option that should easily exceed value tonight. He played 36 minutes in his last game, scoring 25.5 DK points. In his last four games with 25+ minutes, Turner is averaging 24.5 DK points. Again, this is far from elite, but Turner does not need to post big numbers to hit value. CJ McCollum will arguably gain the most from the injury to Lillard. He’ll be playing more point guard tonight, and his usage rating is expected to increase to over 30% tonight. McCollum has been locked into big minutes on a nightly basis, and he has scored 49 and 44.75 DK points in two of his last three games. He is also averaging over 40 DK points per game against Memphis on the season. Nurkic has been locked into a more consistent role recently, playing 27+ minutes in each of his last five games. Over that span, he is averaging 17.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 3.0 blocks, and 1.2 steals (40.6 DK points) in 28.8 minutes per game. This stack comes with a fairly low total price, but is arguably the safest stack on the slate.
Ben Simmons/Marco Belinelli/Ersan Ilyasova
The Philadelphia 76ers have been one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA this season, ranking fifth in the NBA in pace through 73 games. They get a matchup against the New York Knicks, who rank 16th in the league in pace this season. New York also ranks last in the NBA in defensive rating since the All Star Break, while Philadelphia ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating over that same span. Tonight, the Sixers are -12.5 point favorites in a game set at 222 points. They have the highest implied team total on the slate at 117.3 points.
These may not be the three players that come into mind when you think of Philadelphia, but they are the three most mispriced. Ben Simmons has been playing extremely well recently, averaging 10.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 11.6 assists, and 2.0 steals per game over the last 10 days. He is also averaging 48.2 DK points per game over his last eight games. Marco Belinelli is not going to dominate in any games, but he has been a safe option recently for his price tag. Over his last five games, Belinelli is averaging 15.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in 25.1 minutes per game. He has hit value in each of those games, while scoring as high as 28.5 DK points against the Charlotte Hornets. Belinelli relies heavily on scoring, but he has the green light from beyond the arc, which adds to his value, specifically on DraftKings. Ersan Ilyasova is in a similar situation to Belinelli. He has scored 28, 22.25, and 22.25 DK points in his last three games. He’s seeing minutes in the low- to mid-20s, which has been enough time for him to hit value. He does come with some risk, though, but he also comes with more upside than most players his price. Ilyasova was also able to score 26 DK points in only 24.1 minutes against the Knicks earlier this season. This stack will likely be low owned and allow you to stack against the worst defense in the NBA.
Jeff Teague/Andrew Wiggins/Karl-Anthony Towns
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Atlanta Hawks will be playing in one of the faster paced games on the slate, as these two teams rank 13th and third in the NBA in pace since the All Star Break. Over that same span, Atlanta ranks 23rd in the league in defensive rating, while Minnesota features a top-10 offense. Minnesota is a -11.5 point favorite in a game set at 220.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 116 points.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been the leader of the Wolves team since the injury to Jimmy Butler, and that will be the case again tonight. He has scored 48+ DK points in five of his last eight games, while flashing 60+ DK point upside. He needed only 32 minutes to score 42.25 DK points against the Hawks earlier this season, and he has played 39+ minutes in three of his last four games. Jeff Teague has struggled a bit in recent games, but he has scored 40+ DK points in three of his last five games. Aside from the two games he struggled in, Teague has scored 29+ DK points in more than eight consecutive games. He has been scoring well recently, while also adding peripheral stats. The Hawks will be without their top two PGs tonight, and Teague is a player that will be able to take advantage of that. Andrew Wiggins has been one of the more consistent options on the Wolves team recently. He has scored 29+ DK points in nine of his last 10 games, while flashing 40+ DK point upside over that span. In his only matchup against the Hawks, Wiggins was able to score 32.75 DK points. This is a plus matchup for Minnesota, meaning they can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)