Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/17/20 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/17/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
L. Doncic L. Aldridge J. Valanciunas POR/DAL
B. Simmons T. Harris (FD ONLY) H. Whiteside WAS/TOR
D. DeRozan P. Siakam G. Dieng MIN/IND
S. Napier J. Culver D. Powell ATL/SA
J. Murray T. Young M. Gasol MIA/OKC

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • We have a nice 7 game slate on a Friday night that has no Giannis, Harden or the Lakers. Although there aren’t many studs on the slate, we still get to see the Luka Doncic show on primetime tonight. With Kristaps out once again after experiencing a setback in warmups, Luka will again have 35+% usage along with a 50% assist rate. His price is super steep on DraftKings, where I will most likely be limiting my exposure, but on FanDuel, where they have him at 11k, he is more affordable. Other pieces of news we got earlier in the day was Rudy Gay out, Towns Q (for the 15th straight game now) Crowder Q, and Herro+VanVleet also Q. Let’s dive right into construction.
  • If we are starting roster construction on both sites, I would start with LaMarcus Aldridge. He is way too cheap on both sites, and gets a nice bump with Rudy Gay off the floor. He had two straight dud games, and the matchups weren’t amazing. Both sites dropped him down $500+ where he sits at 7.1k on DK and 6.6k on FD. I love his price and this matchup, and Rudy being out helps him even more against this week ATL frontcourt.
  • The second player I’ll be building around is Tobias Harris on FanDuel, and Tim Hardaway Jr. on DK. I love pairing the two together on FanDuel, but on DK Harris is way too pricey for my liking at 8.3k. His floor/usual game is around 30-35 fdp, so at that price I won’t be touching him on DK. However, I love THJ’s price there, he’s 5.1k with no Porzingis again, and this time vs Portland. I really love both forwards tonight and would pair them (on FanDuel) with Aldridge to start my lineups.
  • Time to get into some value plays- Shabazz Napier, Dejounte Murray, Thaddeus Young, Dwight Powell, Marc Gasol and Jarrett Culver all come in as my top rated value plays of the night- Napier should start and handle the PG duties with Teague out of the picture, Culver should also benefit from that. Murray should be having more usage with Rudy out, priced cheap and vs Atl, Young should play a bit more at C/PF/SF with no Carter/Gafford, and if PHI runs small with Horford at C I can see Tobias v Young tonight running big minutes. Powell should get good run vs POR with no KP, Whiteside is a great shot blocker but his defense is not great on pick and roll assist/shot making. Gasol is nice today, if FVV returns I’m more off him though.
  • I like JVal as my center on both sites, CLE struggles inside and plays a little slower which in my opinion, benefits Val more. I like his upside and if Crowder is out that’s a bigger boost.
  • Now, for tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Aldridge, Harris (FD), Hardaway (DK) and Val)
      • Luka Doncic
      • Jonas Valanciunas
      • DeMar DeRozan
      • Josh Richardson
      • Al Horford
      • Shabazz Napier
      • Dejounte Murray
      • Ben Simmons
      • Pascal Siakam
      • Dillon Brooks
      • Damian Lillard
      • Dwight Powell
      • Jarrett Culver
      • Derrick White/Bryn Forbes/Patty Mills
      • Thaddeus Young/Luke Kornet
      • Marc Gasol
      • John Collins
    • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
    • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
    • ATL/SA could be the nuts game stack today. If I am game stacking this, I start with Trae/JC/Huerter, run it back with DeRozan, Aldridge, Forbes, Murray. 
    • If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
      • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

 

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