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Sriracha’s NBA DFS Game Theory- 1/4/21

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our own staff uses these along with the player pool below to help create cores which you can find here, in our Premium Core Plays, where experts such as myself, Ben, Bales, AC and more post our cores daily.

GuardsForwards
CentersGame Stacks
S. Curry G. Antetokounmpo N. VucevicSAC/GS 
M. Brogdon D. Sabonis C. Capela IND/NO 
E. Payton J. Randle R. Holmes DAL/HOU 
M. Fultz D. Hunter M. Robinson NY/ATL 
P. PritchardM. Bagley J. McGee OKC/MIA


*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily
, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Hello all and welcome back for another DFS Karma Game Theory! Now there is a lot of injury news but that is covered over at https://www.dfskarma.com/basketball/nba-injury-news-and-impact. There are 9 games today which means there will be more variance. The more games there are, the more spread out the ownership percentages are for each player. Let’s dive right in.
  • This is a beautiful slate- it has 9 games, which is a solid sized slate. There was a lot of injury news we were waiting on to begin the day but luckily everything came out pretty early. We got word that Luka Doncic is probable and is likely to suit up today, and James Harden is cleared to return from an ankle injury. These two players would have drastically changed the slate, so those guys being in helps a lot- we would all just be jamming in Brunson, Wood, Wall, etc. Now that they are both in, Wall and Wood are still great plays but not at their price points on FanDuel especially. Let’s get into who I’m looking at to begin my lineup construction.
  • I really like this NY v ATL game for fantasy purposes. We’re hoping that Alec Burks sits that way we can go back to Elfrid Payton for the increased usage. Payton has been having a decent start to the season, but he has a very low floor and that’s what I’m afraid of. First, he’s going to be guarding Trae Young most likely, and that screams foul trouble. However, he’s cheap, has the usage, and the pace of the game bodes well for his playstyle. If Burks plays, I’m a little more hesitant to play Payton. I like to pair him with RJ Barrett or Julius Randle. Randle has triple double potential tonight and boy oh boy I love this matchup for him. The Knicks have honestly been a lot better than I expected, they’ve played really well and they’ve beat Milwaukee and Indiana and they haven’t looked nearly as bad as last season. On the other side of the game I love Clint Capela today at 6.5k on FanDuel. If he’s seeing 30+ minutes again he should be an automatic double double. I also like DeAndre Hunter who has played well without Gallinari. High flier GPPs from this game: Mitchell Robinson, Cam Reddish, John Collins 
  • The other game I’m looking at that has a lot of solid mid-tier plays is IND v NO. Let’s start with the Pacers- Malcolm Brogdon, Domas Sabonis, Victor Oladipo are all in play today in all formats. I love Brog and Sabonis in this matchup. Brogdon has put up great numbers without TJ Warren and although the Pelicans can throw some different looks at him today in terms of Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe, the usage from Brogdon and his all around game bodes well for fantasy. If he isn’t scoring 25 points he’ll make it up with his activity on the boards and passing. Sabonis is probably going to find his way into a lot of my lineups, this is the perfect matchup for him and I love his upside here. The only issue I can see is foul trouble which he has been getting himself into quite a bit this season. That, and the fact that there are a lot of power forwards in the upper tier- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Julius Randle, Christian Wood, Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson. I really like this group of PFs and I think I am going to definitely pay up here. On the Pelicans side, I like Bledsoe and Brandon Ingram. Bledsoe is still cheap, I know he is straight garbage but he’s got the shots and volume to hit value on any given night.
  • I think point guard is where you can differentiate yourself today. People will be all over Steph Curry who just dropped a career high 62 yesterday and now gets another soft matchup vs the Kings. You also have Luka Doncic vs Houston, and then on the value side, Payton Pritchard might get some ownership since Teague is out and Smart is questionable. Pritchard played 27 minutes vs the Pistons.
  • For cash games, my core 3 will be Julius Randle, Clint Capela, Steph Curry. 
  • For tournaments, I like the build of Domantas Sabonis, Mitchell Robinson, and Payton Pritchard. 
  • Now, I will go over my full player pool for today, below.
  • Guys who I will have exposure to today in no particular order [other than those in table above] (PLAYER POOL)

  • Trae Young
  • John Wall
  • De’Aaron Fox
  • LaMelo Ball
  • Jaylen Brown
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Jrue Holiday
  • Eric Bledsoe
  • Brandon Ingram
  • Tobias Harris
  • Larry Nance
  • Terrence Ross
  • Christian Wood
  • John Wall
  • Luka Doncic
  • Zion Williamson

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