Tristan's NBA Game Theory (2/2) » DFS Karma
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Welcome to Tristan’s NBA Game Theory (2/2)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

 

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
A. Simons C. Osman A. Davis POR/LAL
S. Dinwiddie I. Jackson M. Kleber BKN/SAC
T. Rozier W. Carter Jr M. Harrell CLE/HOU
S. Curry K. Love E. Mobley CHA/BOS
J. Giddey N. Powell M. Robinson DEN/UTA


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If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


A ton of news to get through tonight in a 9 game slate so please please please, don’t forget to check for updates either on Twitter or in our discord channel where news updates are posted and in our premium channel, breakdown of the news! With that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Guards

Cash

First guard I’m looking at for both cash games and GPPs is Anfernee Simons, who gets a prime match-up against the Lakers who have decreased in pace the last 15 toward top 10 compared to their season average of 3rd in pace BUT give up 2nd most FPPG to PGs this season. There is one constant factor and that is the Lakers defense which is still horrendous and continues to amaze a Laker fan like me. Just so much laziness..but maybe things are turning around with their decrease in pace. Either way, Anfernee is going to bounce back here after shooting an abysmal 3-16 last game vs OKC, and got a price decrease as well even though he’s gone over 30 DKP his last 9/10 times before that. Floor is nice and ceiling can get high tonight.

Spencer Dinwiddie should also have a bounceback game after shooting 2-9 from the floor last night against the Bucks, who are good at guarding the PG position. He shot 0-5 in the 1st Q and basically was out of his head for the rest of the game after that. He did well in his peripherals, putting up 7 reb and 9 assists. Unfortunately he didn’t have any stonks which is normal for him to at least get one. He had a massive floor game points wise and he still had 28.75 DKP which is around his price area for a nice high floor.

GPP

First guy I’m looking at who could potentially be the reason they win tonight — Terry Rozier, who has a history with Boston after being traded from there. With that brings a history of games against Boston, which he has thrived in. He gets a little bump with Hayward being out as well…but the risk here is that Boston is the favorite to win this and they may lack the fire power to keep up, which means Rozier has to be at his best for this one to stay close IMO. 7.3k is a nice price for him with there also being 3PT bonus, he has a ceiling of 45+ here with a floor of around 26-30.

Forward

Cash

Cedi Osman is one of the main beneficiaries with the Cavs missing Darius Garland, because he started and played 38 minutes last game without him, shooting an abysmal 3-16 from the floor and 0-7 from 3. Obviously there’s room for improvement here, and against the Rockets who are still a bottom 5 defense and top 5 team in pace on the season, the match-up couldn’t be better. He racked up 12 assists which can be nearly replicated today because of the players around him, and the pace helps out the entire team because he did this while the Cavs only scored 90 total as a team!

In cash, I think Wendell Carter Jr is a solid option with a ton of Qs still to be found out tonight..he sits at a nice price tag with a high floor and as we saw yesterday, a pretty high ceiling. Granted he did shoot over 73% from the floor yesterday, I think a match-up against the Pacers who have NO bigs besides Isaiah Jackson…can be very nice tonight. His minutes don’t seem to be an issue unless a blowout is happening either way, and he is definitely a producer on the court in all aspects from points, reb, assists to even stonks at times. Pacers are also horrid on defense the last 15 games after losing 3 starters.

 

GPP

Kevin Love is who I’m looking at in GPPs with Darius Garland out because he seems to get increased minutes and touches when Garland is out. Over 5 games (dating from December) until now without Garland, he has had 40, 39, 59.3, 43.8, 38.5 DKP which pays off his high price tag. That 59.3 sticks out to me because he shot it extremely well from the floor and from 3, which is definitely possible for him with his consistent volume of shots. His peripherals are never to be worried about because he racks up rebounds fast. In a fast paced match-up against the Rockets in a spot where the Cavs need a scoring boost… this could be it for him.

 

Center

Cash

I’m looking at Anthony Davis for cash games tonight coming in at 10.2k in a great match-up vs the banged up TrailBlazers in which Nurkic is dealing with a sprained right ankle. YES he is probable and will play tonight, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t dealing with it. Anthony Davis should be able to take advantage of the match-up being more versatile and more willing to put the ball down on the floor to make a play. Portland currently gives up the 7th most FPPG to the C position and this game should be fairly close tonight with the spread only -2.5.

GPP

In GPPs, I’m probably looking at Montrez Harrell against the Sixers who yes is in a tough match-up but they will be needing some scoring seeing that Bradley Beal is out. He also gets a little bump in minutes with Thomas Bryant being ruled out… which should put Gafford in the starting lineup, but he has struggled this year against Embiid. There is a chance that the coach doesn’t choose to roll w Trez because of the size difference with Embiid, but they will need his scoring tonight.

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