By Ricky Fuller (@splitxserenade on Twitter)
Arlington is by far one of my least favorite tracks in America, but for one day we can excuse that. Arlington International Racecourse will host a day filled with turf stakes racing. I’m not a huge fan of turf, because it seems that no matter what stats, factors and pedigree you study, there is always a horse that manages to get across the line to ruin your exotics. Also, Arlington has always been a destination for international horses. Its not uncommon to have half of each field come from overseas. Its always interesting grading overseas horses vs American horses. Today we have some great turf horses getting together, topped off by Bricks and Mortar. Ill keep screaming it until he breaks me, but B&M is the greatest turf horse and it will be on full display today. I will be available on Twitter DM’s for questions, as well as subscriber Discord access providing updates to picks/analysis.
Beverly D. Stakes
Very nice group of horses for this grade 1 race. This race is number 9 on the card and slated to go off at 5:53pm est. This race is part of the “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf. We have 3 Irish horses, 1 Great Britain horse, 1 French horse and 3 American horses in this race. Sistercharlie (#7) will go off as your favorite, and for good reason. This horse will be tough to beat and won this race last year. However, if you’ve been following me for a while, if I think a horse is beatable then I will try to beat it. I know that Sistercharlie is beatable in this race if the turf (and horses) have a slow pace. Also factor in 29 contests, there has NEVER been a repeat winner of this race. There are 3 interesting plays we could have here. My favorite play is a horse that may not race, Magic Wand (#6). Magic Wand has been cross entered into another race later in the card, and this a wait and see play. I think Magic Wand has the speed that could be needed to get ahead of Sistercharlie and hold off competition. It’s a very specific race that would need to be ran, but in both of Sistercharlies defeats, it was a losing effort trying to overtake a horse that ran to the front and held the position. I also think Competitionofideas (#3) is an interesting play with 6/1 morning line odds. Fleeting (#1) is another play I am looking at.
$0.50 Trifecta Box – 1,3,6,7 (Use if you’re trying to beat Sistercharlie) $1.00 Trifecta – 7/1,3,6/1,3,5,6,8 (Use if you have accepted Sistercharlie will win this race)
Nine horses will be running in this one-mile turf race. As it stands early, the favorite looks tough to beat on paper, even with a young career. However, I am puzzled by the jockey switch. Fog Of War (#6) has been ridden by Javier Castellano in all four of his races. Now, he jumps off this Chad Brown horse to ride another Chad Brown horse, Valid Point (#7). Valid Point is making career start number 3 but has looked great in his previous races. I do like an overseas horse in this race as well in Never No More (#3), although he has never went a mile, never raced in Group company and has been on a long layoff. My longshot is Ry’s The Guy (#5). This is the toughest race to figure out, so I will be using many horses in exotics as I think the payout will be there if it hits. I do say to proceed with caution on this race.
$5 W/P/S – 7 $2 W/P/S – 5
Arlington Million Stakes
The main event brings us to the worlds first million-dollar thoroughbred race when it was created in the 80’s. We will get 10 horses including the number one ranked horse Bricks and Mortar (#3), and last years Million winner Robert Bruce (#1). Magic Wand (#2) is also entered to run in this race, although it wont be decided until the day of. This race winner gets the Win and You’re In to the Breeders Cup Turf. We had Bricks and Mortar as my best bet in the Manhattan at Belmont that we cashed heavily on. Bricks and Mortar has beat both Magic Wand and Robert Bruce in the past. Some of the foreign horses that are less recognizable may have a better shot at doing damage here. Intellogent (#9) is interesting. The Great Day (#6) would be a long shot. Bandua (#10), from here, shouldn’t have what it takes to win, but could be around to complete exotics. I fully expect Bandua to set the pace, although there is no clear ‘pacesetter’ runstyle in this race. But as I stated in the opener, Bricks and Mortar is the best American turf horse. My money will be on him.
$50 Win – #3 $0.10 Super – 3/1,2,5/1,2,5,6,9/1,2,5,6,8,9,10