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NFL Sportfolio Strategist Picks: Week 3

Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

Through two weeks of the NFL season, all sportfolio strategies have returned mostly strong results from both a total and relative return perspective. Season-to-date, Conservative is -0.1% (but beating its benchmark by +0.2%), Core is +5.7%, Aggressive is +17.6%, and Multi-Sport Total Return is +18.5%, with all strategies achieving these returns by taking limited risks – average dollar risk per bet is between 1.1% and 1.3% of bankroll.

We head into Week 3 with a strong preference for road underdogs and teams that have been ostensibly tossed to the curb by the public markets (ex one chalky pick with Rams and buying down from -3 to -2.5). Indeed, we find ourselves in an unexpected place: investing hard-earned cash in the expected performances of young, unproven QBs like Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, and Kyle Allen. Yikes. Indeed, you may be recoiling at the suggestion (I know we are). However, sometimes you have to hold your nose and take the clear-and-present value. It isn’t easy to make money in this business; from our perspective, if it makes you feel uncomfortable, net-net, you’re on the +EV side – and we are giving subscribers a heavy dose of discomfort this week. You might as well open the Pepto-Bismol now…

Before diving into our sickening sportfolio allocations, it’s worth noting that we still aren’t in a position to have too much conviction in our model outputs, since we only have two weeks of data and a lot of potential noise and unreliable performances. As such, most of positions are fundamentally driven. It won’t be until at least Weeks 4-5, when data inputs will be richer, more meaningful and predictive, that our model outputs will more seriously impact our decision-making and sportfolio allocation process.  Consequently, we will continue to keep risk-levels in check across the sportfolios heading into Week 3.

Core Strategy (risking 6.1% to return 5%):

  1. Steelers +7 risk 1.2% to return 1%
  2. Panthers +3: risk 1.3% to return 1%
  3. Bengals +7: risk 1.3% to return 1%
  4. Jets +21.5: risk 1.1% to return 1%
  5. Rams -2.5: risk 1.25% to return 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 4.2% to return 4.5%)

  1. Steelers +7: risk 1.2% to return 1%
  2. Seahawks/Vikings money line: risk 1.5% to return 1.2%
  3. Rams -2.5: risk 1.25% to win 1%
  4. Panthers/Lions money line: risk 0.25% to return 1.3%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 13.5% to return 25.8%)*:

  1. Steelers +7 risk 2.4% to return 2%
  2. Panthers +3: risk 1.9% to return 1.5%
  3. Bengals +7: risk 1.3% to return 1%
  4. Jets +21.5: risk 2.2% to return 2%
  5. Rams -2.5: risk 1.25% to return 1%
  6. Colts -1: risk 1.1% to return 1%
  7. Seahawks/Bucs/Vikings money line: risk 0.50% to return 0.70%
  8. Rams/Vikings money line: risk 1% to return 0.90%
  9. Panthers/Texans/Steelers money line: risk 0.25% to return 4.5%
  10. 8 point teaser: Vikings PK, Colts +7.5: risk 0.95% to return 0.50%
  11. 7 point teaser: Ravens +12, Bengals +13, Vikings -2, Panthers +9, Texans +10.5: risk 0.50% to return 1.6%
  12. Panthers/Chiefs/Steelers/Colts/Bucs/Redskins +4: risk 0.20% to win 10%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities.

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @zjalpha and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals). This strategy was up another 5% this Saturday, Week 4 of college football, bringing the updated season-to-date return to 23.5%. See Saturday’s trades below, and don’t miss out on future trade alerts! Sign up for BetKarma Discord!

 

Performance Reporting/Full Transparency

As promised, we will provide detailed post-hoc total and relative performance commentary every Wednesday – so please stay tuned. Check out NFL Week 2’s performance report here.

Of course, if you’d like to learn more about the overall approach to the NFL model sportfolio strategies, check out our introductory note here.

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