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Good Evening Karma Nation! It’s that time of the week again as we look to tee up another profitable weekend! This weekend at Riviera Country Club we look to cash in our 6th straight winning week to begin the PGA season. We have swept the board on everything the past 2 weeks going, excluding long shots, but we did have Fowler at 20-1 to win at Phoenix.
As you’ve probably heard by now this course plays similar to Augusta, with 19 of the past 30 winners having had a T10 or better at Augusta prior to winning here. The course is a long Par 71 7322 yard course. This is one of the more harder tracks on tour with the hard to hit fairways, and its Kikuyu grass that is lined throughout the golf course and around the greens. It is a soft grainy grass that will leave you with tough lines and will take away the bump and run approach shots. It is a aggressive grass that grows rapidly and can act as a velcro to your ball if you wind of with a bad lie. This course will benefit the “Bombers” as they will be at least closer with missed fairways. There are some scoring holes here tho with Hole #1 being a 503 yard par 5, Hole #10 a drive-able par 4 at 315 yards. There are also some long holes needed to make up the distance having 6 Par 4s at 450+ yards which will benefit players that rate out well from 150+ yards approach making strong iron play very vital. This is a stacked field and the best players will rise to the top here. The weather here will be a factor on Thursday as it is expected to rain all day, with the possibility of a rain delay or 2. The good news is that Friday-Sunday look to be good.
Strong Iron Play
Strokes gain Approach
Par 4 scoring 450+ yards
Our First bet is going to be Xander Schauffele over Tiger woods. Xander has been on a hot streak lately, having 2 wins, 4 top 10s without having any missed cuts. Xander is coming off a T10 at Phoenix and has a scrambling rate of 78% and 86% in his last 2 events. He has been good on Par 4s and is -18 last 7 events and is -55 on Par 5s in his last 7 events. He is capable of bombing the ball out there 300+ yards. Tiger doesn’t fit well here and really never has here having 11 starts and no wins. He only missed 2 cuts last year and this was one of them. I don’t think he would even be playing this event if his foundation wasn’t playing host i feel.
Xander Schauffele>Tiger Woods -125 *Best Bet*
Next we are going to be backing Cam Smith over Tommy Fleetwood. Cam Smith has been hot in his last 4 events posting 15th,9th,22nd,1st. He has made the cut all 3 trips here and has gotten better with each attempt going 63rd,28th, and 6th here last year. He is 5th in strokes gained approach. He compairs this course to something similar to back home and says he really enjoys playing here and can navagate the tough kikiuyu grass better than others.
Cam Smith>Tommy Fleetwood +125
Adam Scott is matched up with Mark Leishman this weekend. I’m taking Scott here as he has great form here and has said this is his favorite course in the states. He switched up his putter grip to a new arm lock technique, and it has been working wonders. He has a win here and 2 2nd place finishes. Has made the cut the last 5 times with 4 finishes inside the top 17.
Adam Scott>Mark Leishman -105
Our last match up pick is Jason Kokrak over Tyrell Hatton. Jason has had 3 straight top 25s here and comes in with great form raking up 3 T20s in a row. He is 5th in the field in key distances we are targeting. He is 3rd in Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards. He is one of the longer drivers on tour.
Jason Kokrak>Tyrell Hatton +100
Xander T20 +110
Dustin Johnson T10 -130
Harold Varner T20 +550
Xander 22-1 to win
Finau 28-1 to win
Smith 35-1 to win
I will be releasing my Core plays for Cash games and GPP builds as well as Showdown/Weekend slates in the Discord Chat. You can sign up the this by clicking the link here http://ChatDFS.com In my core i released last week i finished with 1st,2nd,4th,T30.