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Karma Nation! We’re streaking again! That’s 3 straight winning weeks as we head into the 2nd Major of the year at the Black Course in Bethpage State Park. We finished last week going 4-1 on our bets! This week we have a loaded card as we strive for our 4th consecutive winning week!! Let’s get into the picks….
Ryan Fox -115 vs JJ Spaun
JJ Spaun comes into the PGA Championship only finishing inside the top 50 in just 1 of his last 9 events played. He has missed 4 cuts in that span. He is losing strokes putting in 3 of the last 4. Spaun is 129th in SG Around the Green, 90th off the tee, and 92nd in ball striking. Ryan Fox seems to play his best when he plays harder courses as he gains +.39 strokes on difficult courses vs losing -1.25 strokes on easy courses. He made the cut in all 3 majors he played last year finishing T27th at the PGA last year and made the cut in the PGA in 2017 as well. Fox has gained strokes in 5 of his last 7 PGA events.
The Play: Ryan Fox -115 1 unit
Jason Kokrak -165 vs Branden Grace
Grace comes into this event not finishing better than 58th in his last 5 events. He has lost strokes in all 5 events. He comes here ranking 124th in putting. Jason Kokrak is a top 20 machine having finished inside the top 20 in 5 of his last 7 events. He finished 7th in his last trip to Bethpage. He hasn’t missed a cut all year. He has gained 5+ strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 events, and comes to a course with his preferred surface in poa. Kokrak is 4th in Ball striking, 6th in approach, 13th in tee to green, and 19th off the tee in his last 50 rounds.
The Play: Jason Kokrak -165 1 unit
Emiliano Grillo -120 vs Byeong-hun An
Grillo comes to the difficult Black Course making 7 of his last 8 cuts. He plays his best on difficult courses gaining +.83 strokes. He finished 31st in the PGA Championship last year. In his last 5 events he is +4.2 in fairways gained. In his last 5 events he is gaining 2.1 strokes off the tee and 1.6 strokes in approach. Byeong-hun An might be one of the worst putters on tour ranking 148th in SG putting, with poa being his worst putting surface. He comes in to the PGA having missed the cut in his last start.
The Play: Emiliano Grillo -120 1 unit
Adam Scott -105 vs Paul Casey
Casey comes in missing cuts in the Masters and the Players championship. It seems like he is either missing the cut or finishing in the top 5 looking at his last 5 events. He missed the cut at the PGA last year. Casey is 91st in putting over his last 24 rounds and has been bad around the greens in his last 12 rounds ranking 70th. Adam Scott is a great ball striker and is 11th in approach. He elevates his game for the majors finishing in the top 20 in 3 of the last 4. He is able to tame these more difficult courses as he has gained +1.21 strokes. He has gained strokes putting in his last 7 events, with poa being his preferred surface gaining +.38 strokes.
The Play: Adam Scott -105 1 unit
Bonus Play: Brooks Koepka -140 over Tiger Woods 1 unit
Top 20 Plays:
Jon Rahm -110 1 unit
Tommy Fleetwood +150 1 unit
Adam Scott +200 1 unit
Jason Kokrak +500 1 unit
To Win Bets:
Jon Rahm 18-1
Patrick Cantlay 45-1
Jason Kokrak 110-1
1st Round Leader Bets:
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Xander Schauffele 35-1
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