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Karma Nation! We’re officially on FIRE now after winning our 4th STRAIGHT week fresh off the PGA Championship, where we nailed Brooks Koepka first round leader at 20-1! 4-1 on our match-ups on the week. We are going to challenge that 10 week streak we opened the season with as we strive for our 5th straight winning week at the Charles Schwab Challenge! Let’s get into the picks….
Matt Jones -125 vs Jimmy Walker
Matt Jones comes into this event having made his past 9 cuts. Jones is coming off a T5 finish in Dallas at the Byron Nelson where he gained 10.2 strokes. Jones has 3 top 20s in his last 5 events gaining an average of 6 strokes total. He is 7th in Tee to Green, 11th Off the Tee, and 7th Around the Green. Jones has a positive 2.5 BoB gained and a 2.8 Bogeys avoided mark average in his last 5 events. Walker comes into Colonial only finishing inside the top 30 once in 2019 and missing the cut at the Byron Nelson. Bent grass is his least preferred surface to play on. He is ranked 83rd in Putting and 63rd Off the Tee. Walker has a negative BoB gained stat in his last 4 events.
The Play: Matt Jones -125 1 unit
Joel Dahmen +110 vs Zach Johnson
Joel Dahmen arrives at Colonial in great form, having finished inside the top 20 in 4 of his last 6 events. He finished in 2nd place at the Wells Fargo gaining 14.2 strokes total. Dahmen has made 7 straight cuts after the shaky start to the year. Dahmen has a positive 2.4 Birdies gained stat average over his last 7 events. He has averaged 3.4 opportunities gained in his 5 events. Zach Johnson has finished 50th or worse in 3 of his last 4 starts. He has only 1 top 20 in 2019. Comes in ranking 101th in Putting, 57th Off the Tee, 64th in SG total. He has a negative birdies gained stat of 2+ in 3 of his last 4 events.
The Play: Joel Dahmen +110 1 unit
Rory Sabbatini +115 vs Emiliano Grillo
Rory comes back to Colonial where he is a past Champion here and has 4 top 10s. He is in great form having collected 3 straight top 20s and Top 5 2 weeks ago in Dallas. Sabbatini comes in ranking 19th in Ball Striking, 2nd Around the Green, 4th Tee to Green, and 3rd SG total. He has gained 7+ strokes in his last 3 events. Rory has a positive 2.7 Birdies gained number to go with a 2.8 bogeys avoided stat in his last 5 events. Grillo comes in ranking 114th in putting and 92nd Around the green. He has lost strokes putting in 7 of the last 8 events. Grillo is averaging -1.5 birdies gained the last 6 events. He has shot a 76 in 4 of the past 5 events, and has more bogeys than birdies in 5 of his last 6 events.
The Play: Rory Sabbatini +115 1 unit
Top 10 Play:
Jon Rahm +125 1 unit
Top 20 Plays:
Scott Piercy +200 1 unit
Joel Dahmen +275 1 unit
Matt Jones +350 1 unit
Longshots:
Joel Dahmen 60-1 First Round Leader
Scott Piercy 50-1 to win
Joel Dahmen 66-1 to win
