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Karma Nation! We’re back for another PGA event this weekend with the WGC Mexico being played this weekend. We are looking for our 7th STRAIGHT winning week in the PGA season. Last week we ended up 4-2-1 with Adam Scott blowing up late Sunday going 6 over in his last 11 holes to cost us a win. We still ended strong on the week tho. We are sitting 16-2-1 in the last 3 weeks! We look to keep it rolling this weekend down in Mexico!
Course Preview:
Club de Golf Chapultepec is a Par 71 and it measures 7,345 yards long, which looks long at first look, but the course sits nearly 7,500 feet above sea level. This will cause the ball to travel roughly 8.7% further, with this calculated in the course will actually play at around 6,800 yards. This course has a European Tour feel to it, as the Euros have fared well here in the past. Chaputepec is a narrow tree lined course that will benefit driving accuracy over distance. The course has well placed bunkers surrounding the small greens, so it will be important to set yourself up with good accurate drives. The greens here are poa and similar to last weeks at Riviera. The Kikuyu fairways will benefit elite ball strikers. This course has one of the highest 3 putt %s on tour so SG putting will be key.
Key Stats:
Driving Accuracy
Strong Iron Play
SG: Approach
SG: Scrambling
Wedge Play
Bogey Avoidance
The Bets:
This week i was only able to find 2 match-ups that i really liked with it being a no cut event only 70 players in the field it will be a lower exposure week. The First Match-up i want to look at is Xander vs Phil. X comes in playing some of his best golf of career hes had 6 top 10s in past 11 events. He is 3rd in approach, 7th in putting (poa), 3rd in bogey avoidance. He bounced back last week after a opening round of +3 to finish T15. This course is a great fit for his game and he has 1 WGC win under his belt and shows up big in no cut strong fields.
Xander>Phil -115
The next match-up will be Leishman vs Finau. Finau has struggled in these shorter courses that require good driving accuracy. Leishman comes into this event with 3 top 5s in his last 4 events. He has gained 7.7 Strokes in his last 5 events, including 3 strokes gained putting. Coming off a 4th place finish at Genesis he gained 14.3 strokes total.
Leishman>Finau +105
Xander T20 -125
Sergio T20 +160
Rahm T10 +125
Long Shots:
Sergio T10 +350
Rahm 15-1 to win
Fleetwood 35-1 to win
Sergio 45-1 to win
I will be releasing my Core plays for Cash games and GPP builds as well as Showdown/Weekend slates in the Discord Chat. You can sign up the this by clicking the link here http://ChatDFS.com
