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Karma Nation! We’re back in the winners circle after a nice weekend scooping up 3.25 units and putting our overall record up to 27-11-3 +25.25 units on the year! DJ had a meltdown Sunday costing another 2 units shooting 3 over on the day failing to make a single birdie falling back into a tie for 6th with Rahm. We will be striving for winning week number 11 out of 12 at the Match Play Championship!
Course Preview:
This week we head to the WGC Match Play event held at Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas. This is another Pete Dye Course that will offer some risk reward opportunities. This is a 7108 yard Par 71 track. All 4 Par 5s are under 600 yards and played nearly a half stroke under par on average last year. You will need to be accurate and strike the ball well here to score. In this event players are placed in “Pods” and will need to win matches being played Wednesday-Friday in order to make it into the round of 16. The rest of this event will be played by bracket and will be single elimination, you will need to win to advance on. If you make the final match both players are guaranteed 1 million+ dollars.
Key Stats:
SG Approach
Ball striking
Accuracy
The Bets:
This week I will be selecting players to win their “Pods”. First pod we are picking is Brooks Koepka. I feel this is the softest grouping with Koepka owning a 8-4 record and winning his pod last 2 times played. He has Noren,Li,Lewis in his pod with the last two names combining for 0 match wins. Noren comes in with terrible form. Brooks should dominate this grouping moving on. This is my favorite bet of the week!
The Play: Brooks Koepka -110 2u
Next up is Xander who seems to thrive in these WGC short field events. He went 2-1 in his first attempt losing to Sergio Garcia. He is grouped with RCB, Hatton, Westwood. Hatton comes in missing the cut in his previous 2 events. Westwood has a losing record here at 17-19. Running matchup simulations at fantasy national it shows RCB only having a 38% chance to beat Xander. Xander will be well rested coming in having the past 2 weeks off.
The Play: Xander +175 1u
The next pod features Finau, Poulter, Kisner, Mitchell. Finau has struggled on shorter courses. Kisner is 8-4 in match play here coming in 2nd place last year. Poulter is one of the better match play players here. He is 27-15 in this event and has had success in the Ryder cup as well. He made it to the quarters last year and went 3-0 in his pod.
The Play: Poulter +200 1u
The next pod is Reed, Garcia, Lowry, Putnam. Putnam hasn’t played in this before. Lowry has a record of 3-7-2 and has missed his last 2 cuts. Reed enters in bad form missing last week’s cut and not finishing in Top 40 in his last 3 events. Sergio has been solid this year and remains in good form. He went 3-0 in his group last year.
The Play: Sergio +200 1u
Half unit Play: Aphibarnrat +425 .5u
Longshots:
Brooks 18-1 to win
Day 28-1 to win
