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Let’s keep the good times rolling, all! If I did bet all of the games from yesterday, I would have gone 6-2. I actually hedged the Pelicans when the line jumped to 14, so personally I finished 7-1 on the day. Not too shabby 🙂
Assuming you all don’t really care about my personal bankroll, let’s get right to today’s takes:
TOR (-3.5) @ HOU 228 O/U
- Kawhi Leonard back after 4 game “rest”
- HOU game avg 239 ppg L5
- Over is 7-2 L9 HOU home games
- Over is 4-1 L5 TOR road games
- Friday games: TOR overs 5-2 L7, HOU overs 5-0 L5
THE TAKE: Over 228
This has a shootout feel to it, and let’s face it, the Rockets aren’t exactly a defensive team. While the Raptors do play good defense, the pace of this game, plus Kawhi’s return to the lineup, and the fact that Harden has been out of his mind, makes this a great play for the over. Currently the public is almost 90% on the over. Normally this would be prime fade territory, but tonight’s game should be tight, which leads to more chances to hit the over.
LAC (-5) @ CHI 220 O/U
- LAC playing 4th game in 6 days
- Both teams shoot far less 3s than most NBA teams, slower pace, less scoring overall
- Under is 6-0 L6 LAC road games
- Under is 5-1 CHI vs. teams with winning SU record
- Under is 6-1 LAC on 1 day rest
- L5: LAC 102 ppg, CHI 102 ppg
THE TAKE: Under 220
The Bulls are just not good. They can’t shoot, they can’t defend, and they don’t have much to turn to for positives. The Clippers have been an up and down team, but their defense has been decent against even strong scoring teams of late, and playing in their last game on the road after some grueling games, this pace will be slower and if LAC blows out CHI, the unders have a better chance both ways.
Good luck and good gambling!
NOTE: Timmay’s betting style incorporates a conglomerate of data, analytics, his own proprietary model, and looks for the biggest edge in plays. While there are always some “square” tendencies for some games, some of the betting picks will be of the variety that goes against the grain versus the public. He covers NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF. Successfully sports gambling for over 15 years, Timmay owns and operates @geeksgambling on twitter.