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Due to some timing issues, my post from yesterday for games wasn’t able to be posted in time for the games. In the spirit of transparency, my picks went 2-1–with wins from Utah and Charlotte, and the sole loss coming from the inability for the Nets to close things out with their spread of 5.5 and only winning by 4.
Since there was no post yesterday, I’m just going to go ahead and break down all of today’s NBA match ups. I’m not going to necessarily bet all of these, but to give you an idea of where the signal between the noise can give you an edge potentially.
GSW (-10.5) @ WAS O/U 235
–GSW 6-3-1 ATS L10, WAS 8-2
–Home team ATS with referee crew combined 59-43-1, including 7-4 for Home dog of 9+ spread
–WAS shooting 42% from 3 L5, 10% better than season avg
–L5 Bench off/def for GSW -10 PPG, WAS +7
–GSW 15-8 Over on the road, WAS 14-8 Over at home
–GSW 15-5 Over vs. team with SU losing record, WAS 15-5 Over vs. team with SU winning record
–WAS 6-1 ATS L7 home games
–GSW Overs 13-3 following a win of 10+ pts
The Take: Over 235, WAS +10.5
The public is overwhelmingly supporting the number for over, while they are over 80% on GSW to cover. The Wizards have found themselves being more efficient without Wall and have been shooting extremely well as of late. Fade the Warrior-enamored public.
NOP @ OKC (-12) O/U 233
–NOP 1-6 ATS on B2B
–NOP 6-12-1 ATS when giving up 110+ (OKC avg. 124 ppg L5)
–NOP 2-5-1 ATS on the road vs. team with winning home record.
–NOP 1-4 ATS H2H in OKC
–OKC shooting 7% better from 3 L5 vs. season avg.
–Over is 7-1 L8 for OKC
–Over is 5-0 OKC vs. Western conf
–Over is 7-2 for NOP when playing B2B
The Take: OKC -12, Over 233
Both picks are indicative of what the public is betting, so there’s no real surprises here. Right now, OKC is playing great basketball, at home, against a tired Pelicans team that has had to grind out the last 2 games versus good defensive teams.
POR (-8) @ PHO O/U 220
–Referees are a combined 51-29 Home ATS
–Public has bet 88% on POR to cover, but line has not moved (Steam move)
–PHO 3-1 ATS when both teams have had 1 day rest
–Over is 4-0 after PHO loses by 10+
–Over is 4-0-1 following 1 day rest for POR
–Lillard hurt his hand last game–says will play, but this could mean limited
–Over is 4-0 for PHO after losing SU by 10+ pts at home
The Take: PHO +8, Over 220
Both of these are severe public fades, with the public over 75% on POR and the under. This feels like a trap game for Portland, and Lillard’s injury shouldn’t be minimized. Both have had improvements offensively as of late, and based on the data and trends, fading the public isn’t simply a gut move.
MIN (-1) @ LAL O/U 230
–Home dogs are 23-11 ATS for this game’s referee crew.
–Teague out, Rondo more than likely playing
–MIN 3-7 ATS L10 following ATS win
–LAL 4-1 ATS L5 Thursday games
–Under is 8-2 for LAL following 10+ SU loss
–Under is 18-7-1 in L26 LAL home games
–This is the 4th meeting between the teams this year (very familiar, better defense)
The Take: MIN -1, Under 230
Wait? Didn’t all of those factors give promise for the Lakers to cover? Yes, but the Lakers as of late have been listless at home. In games like these that should be tighter, they are absolutely outmatched at the free throw line which could make the difference (MIN 80%, LAL 68%). The Lakers have been frustrating to cap without Lebron, and while the Twolves aren’t exactly world beaters, they have the pace to beat the Lakers for the 3rd time in 4 tries and go 4-0 ATS. They have this team’s number despite the data. This is again another huge play against the public.
Good luck and good gambling!
NOTE: Timmay’s betting style incorporates a conglomerate of data, analytics, his own proprietary model, and looks for the biggest edge in plays. While there are always some “square” tendencies for some games, some of the betting picks will be of the variety that goes against the grain versus the public. He covers NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF. Successfully sports gambling for over 15 years, Timmay owns and operates @geeksgambling on twitter.