0 Bobby's MLB Batter Up (5/15/18) | DFS Karma

Bobby's MLB Batter Up (5/15/18)

MLB BATTER UP May 14th, 2018
 
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!!

 

*I'm writing this article off of the current projected lineup. I do this so I can get the information out to you guys early to start making your lineups but some players who I write about may ultimately be held out of the starting lineup which is something you need to keep an eye on if you construct your rosters earlier in the day*

 

 Everyone make sure to head to our Youtube Channel "DFS Karma" and check out my MLB GPP build for tonight's slate.  I'll be posting these videos 4-5 nights a week for the slate the following day.

 

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

    1. Pirates -   The over in this White Sox/Pirates game has seen some major juice on the over and I have some major interest tonight in the Pirates as the face up against Reynaldo Lopez.  Lopez may come off to the average DFS player as a good play tonight due to his 2.44 ERA.  If you look in any deeper than that you see how bad Lopez has really been in 2018.  His 5.54 xFIP is atrocious and a really good indicator that some negative regression is about to hit Lopez.  His BABIP is at .202 which explains his 2.44 ERA which is going to hurt his ERA as that continues to regress towards the mean.  A 5.32 SIERA and a SwStr% that is below average has me extremely high on the Pirates tonight.  Pittsburgh has dominated at home this season against RHP as seen by their 123 wRC+ which is good for 4th in the MLB.  People are still under the impression that Pittsburgh is #bad but their bats look legit at least this far into the 2018 MLB season.
          1. I prefer 1-6 in this projected lineup.
          2. Favorite One-Off: Adam Frazier
      1. Rangers - So from what my colleague Ben Hossler posted on Twitter I'm under the impression people are going to play Mike Leake today against the Texas Rangers.  I wasn't on the Rangers at first considering how much Vegas hates them today (only 4 run implied total) but we get major leverage against targeting Leake with his ownership a little higher than what it should be.  Leake is not anything special, if anything below average, with a 4.80 xFIP, a below average K% at 16%, and a 4.86 SIERA.  People are saying that the Rangers high K% is the reason people are going with Leake but Leake is the farthest thing from a strikeout pitcher.  Leake has a SwStr% that is much below average and as we look deeper into opponents plate discipline with Leake we see that his Z-Contact % (contact on pitches that are thrown in the strike zone) is 6% above average at 91% which is crazy for a guy that throws a first-pitch strike 64% of the time.  The Rangers aren't going to have trouble making contact tonight and if some of their homer or miss guys could have a big game against Leake.  Keep in mind this is also a ballpark people usually avoid targeting bats which should lower the Rangers ownership even further.  Take a shot on them in your GPP's.
          1. I prefer the 1-5 in this projected lineup.
          2. Favorite One-Off: Joey Gallo
      2. Royals - The Royals get the first look at Anthony Banda in 2018.  While the 2nd year Rays pro has been solid in Triple-A in 2018 he got knocked around in the majors last year and we shouldn't be surprised to see a similar result as Banda makes the move up a level to the big leagues.  Last season in the majors he had a 4.81 xFIP with 39% hard contact rate allowed.  The Royals have been solid against left-handed pitching where they are middle of the pack in wRC+ but have dominated with an average that is good for 6th in the league.  Vegas loves this game too as seen by a .32 increase in the Royals implied total since the opening line came out.
          1. I prefer 1-5 in the projected lineup.
          2. Favorite One-Off: Whit Merrifield

         

        **Lowest Owned Stack that could go off** -  Atlanta Braves

         

         BOBBY'S LOW-OWNED JACKS:

        Joey Gallo: We know that usually if Joey Gallo gets a hit it's going to be a home-run.  Well... he's going to get a hit tonight and it's going to be a home-run.  Gallo is 4th in the league in EV at 98MPH over his last 10 games.  We talked about how Leake gives up a ton of contact and usually throws a lot of strikes so I feel really good about a Joey Gallo one-off tonight for a home-run at 1% owned.  

        John Hicks: I really want to find a way to target Tomlin tonight but the majority of this Tigers team is sooooo bad.  John Hicks, however, seems due for the long-ball and should have some opportunities for hard contact tonight against Tomlin in Detroit.  Hicks is batting 6th which is a good spot for a catcher and leads his team in exit velocity at 95 MPH and has a hard contact rate over 50% in his last 12 games.  Hicks also has positive wOBA and ISO splits against righties so feel confident in this 2% owned home-run tonight in your GPP's.

         

                                                                Stacks in Play

        Chalk Stacks Low Owned Stacks *Wildcard Stack*
        Indians Pirates Braves
        Red Sox Rangers
        Phillies Royals

         

         

          Highest upside player picks per position 
          (High Owned, Low Owned)
           
          Catcher –   S. Perez, J. Hicks
          1st base –  H. Ramirez, C.J. Cron
          2nd base –  B. Dozier,  Y. Moncada
          Shortstop –  F. Lindor, T. Turner
          3rd base –  J. Ramirez, J. Turner
          OF –  M. Betts, J.D. Martinez, A. Bennitendi
                    C. Taylor, T. Pham, R. Hoskins
           
          Bold Call of the day:  Joey Gallo hits 2 home runs tonight!!!
          Good luck everyone let's hit this slate out of the park!

           

          Written By: @DF_Advantage 

           

           

           

           

           

           

          DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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