Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Similarly to most nights the Colorado Rockies are playing in Coors, they will likely make for a “Chalk Stack.” They have looked great this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, while also ranking eighth in team batting average and OPS. They have looked outstanding at home, where they are hitting .276 with a .460 slugging percentage and an .801 OPS. They are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in Colorado, as well. Tonight, they are -127 favorites in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Shelby Miller, who has struggled through three starts. In those starts, he has posted an 0-3 record with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.6 HR/9 with an 11.6 K/9 through 14 innings. With that being said, Miller’s peripherals are significantly better, as he owns a 3.26 xFIP and a 3.42 SIERA. In his career, he has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .265 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. While the Rockies look like a sexy pick tonight, I’ll likely be avoiding the chalk on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
If you read my article on a daily basis, you know about the Boston Red Sox. They lead the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS through 93 games. They are also an even better offense at home, posting a .288 average with a .509 slugging percentage and an .859 OPS through 42 home games. Furthermore, Boston is averaging 6.0 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game at home this season. The Red Sox are currently -390 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.8 runs tonight.
Boston gets a matchup against Bartolo Colon, who has been struggling quite a bit of his last 10 starts. Over that span, he owns a 4-5 record with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9 with a 4.7 K/9 over his last 57.1 innings. He has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters this season. Lefties are hitting .263 with a .445 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA, while righties are hitting for a .255/.536/.338 line in the same categories. Boston has the type of offense that can take advantage of any pitching matchup, and this is one of the best they could see. They make an elite stacking option in all leagues tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Atlanta Braves have quietly featured one of the best offenses in the MLB through 90 games. They currently rank sixth in the Majors in runs scored, fourth in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. They have struggled at times at home this season, posting a .254 average with a .393 slugging percentage and a .718 OPS. They are averaging 4.8 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game in Atlanta, as well. They are -162 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and Atlanta features a respectable implied run total of 4.8 runs tonight.
Sam Gaviglio will be taking the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. He has thrown well this season, but he has struggled quite a bit on the road. Through four road starts, Gaviglio owns a 1-2 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.7 HR/9 with an 8.1 K/9 through 20 road innings. Gaviglio is allowing his opponents to hit for a .275 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA on the road, as well. Atlanta has struggled with power at home this season, but this is the type of matchup that they can take advantage of. They will likely go overlooked with a few better spots on the slate, but they are a high upside option for tournaments.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Martinez is hitting .364 with an .805 slugging percentage and a 1.220 OPS through 40 home games. He also owns 51% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Martinez owns a .681 slugging percentage and a .350 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, as well.
Davis has struggled quite a bit this season, but he owns 36% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns a career .501 slugging percentage and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Muncy has been enjoying an elite season, and he has four home runs over his last 10 games. He has posted 47% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Muncy has also dominated left-handed pitching this season, posting a .686 slugging percentage and a .373 ISO against lefties in 2018.
Gyorko has been playing at an elite level recently, recording a .364 average with a .697 slugging percentage and a 1.160 OPS over his last 10 games. He is also an elite option against left-handed pitching, featuring a .648 slugging percentage and a .296 ISO against lefties this season.
Martinez is another Cardinals hitter that hits left-handed pitching well. He features 0.084 wOBA and 0.105 ISO differentials against lefties. He also owns a career .605 slugging percentage against lefties. Furthermore, Martinez is hitting over .300 with some power over his last 10 games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Straily has struggled quite a bit this season, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 13 starts. He has also posted a 1.8 HR/9 with a 7.3 K/9 through 65.1 innings. With that being said, Straily has scored 18.4 and 21.3 DK points in two of his last three starts. He’s a sizable underdog in this game, but the projected run total is set at only 8 runs tonight.
Straily gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last on the slate in team wOBA. Straily has looked good against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .211 average with a .423 slugging percentage and a .303 wOBA. A couple of the Brewers top bats - Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar - are right-handed batters, and Straily could find success tonight if he can neutralize their bats.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Asuaje has been heating up a bit recently, posting a .286 average with a .381 slugging percentage and an .804 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns a 42% hard-hit rate with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Asuaje owns 0.111 wOBA and 0.071 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
He gets a tough matchup against Kenta Maeda, who has been enjoying a great season. Maeda has struggled at times against left-handed batters, though, allowing them to hit for a .255 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA. Asuaje is expected to hit second in the Padres lineup, and it isn’t often a player this cheap is hitting that high in a lineup.
Leon quietly continues to produce on a fairly consistent basis. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .290 with a .548 slugging percentage and an .851 OPS. He has also posted 52% hard-hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
I have already outlined Bartolo Colon above, so I will not be doing that again. Leon is only expected to hit eighth in the Red Sox lineup, but it is one of the best lineups in the Majors. He could still see RBI and run opportunities, and Leon is a safe salary relief option that also comes with some upside.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)