Note: all odds provided via bovada.today
Top Tier: Chris Sale/Jacob deGrom- Much like yesterday, we have to aces who stick out as the clear top plays on this slate when factoring in both ability and price. I'm not going to dive into a ton of numbers here because we know these are two Cy Young candidate arms and we know they have elite numbers. When deciding on which one to pay up for in cash games, it comes down to price and matchup tonight. On Fanduel, the gap is much smaller with Sale coming in $500 more expensive compared to $1,000 more on DraftKings. The Rangers are definitely attackable with left-handed pitching, but I prefer deGrom in cash games tonight at home against the Phillies. The Phillies rank 1st overall in the MLB in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and deGrom has been absolutely lights out at home this season. So, I will be locking deGrom into cash games and pivoting to Sale in GPPs. Sale comes in as a MASSIVE -390 favorite in Vegas, so I do expect him to be higher-owned, but that's not how I play DFS and I have deGrom narrowly as my favorite play. Both are 100% useable in all formats.
Mid Tier: Freddy Peralta/Kenta Maeda- We have a couple of high strikeout arms in the mid tier today, let's jump into the numbers!
Peralta (2018)- 3.15 SIERA, 36.2% K%, 11.8% BB%, 14.1% SwStr% (limited IP)
Maeda (2018)- 3.53 SIERA, 28.7% K%, 9.1% BB%, 13.9% SwStr%
Peralta has thrown limited innings in the big leagues, so the numbers could be *a bit* inflated, but he showed huge strikeout ability in the minors so I do believe he is good. Maeda is always semi-risky with Dave Roberts as his manager, but he is under-priced on DraftKings for his ability and matchup with the Padres. Both the Marlins and Padres rank bottom-ten in walks against righties and both rank near the bottom in most offensive categories as well. I love both of their matchups and will have exposure in tournaments, Maeda does enter the SP2 conversation if you are fading Coors completely.
Low Tier: Luke Weaver- Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Weaver has declined since he burst onto the scene last season posting a 4.27 SIERA and 21.2% strikeout rate in 2018. He is very under-priced on Fanduel for his matchup with the White Sox, and makes for an SP2 option on DraftKings. I don't think this cash game playable, because the White Sox have power hitters and I could see Weaver blowing up, but there are limited cheap pitching options today and the White Sox boost his K potential. If you end up playing him, simply make a hedge stack with the White Sox and you're good to go. For cash games, I would be looking at Dan Straily on DraftKings for under $6,000.
Top Tier: J.D. Martinez- I have the brothers Martinez slates as my favorite plays in cash games tonight. J.D. has actually hit righties better than lefties this season, and he has an exceptional matchup with the soft-tossing Bartolo Colon whose biggest issue this season has been...get this...allowing home runs! The Red Sox are going to be very chalky tonight, so I like locking in some exposure to the top of their lineup.
Mid Tier: Jose Martinez- Our second Martinez comes from St. Louis, and he matches up with Carlos Rodon. Martinez is way too cheap on Fanduel, and fairly priced on DraftKings as well. His numbers have been better against righties this season, but the hard hits and fly balls are still there against lefties and the Cardinals will probably be semi-popular after erupting last night against this same White Sox team.
Low Tier: David Fletcher- Much like Kole Calhoun last night (who homered!) we should get a cheap leadoff hitter for the Angels. None of Fletcher's numbers stand out, but he has limited at-bats and they have been leading him off against lefties in place of Kole Calhoun. I wouldn't play him in tournaments because I think his upside is very limited, but if he is confirmed in the lineup he is a capable cash game punt.
Tournament Stack of the Day
In cash games it's Coors then the Red Sox closely behind for me.
Milwaukee Brewers- Since I think Straily is going to be popular as an SP2, I love loading up on Brewers in tournaments. I wish this game was in Milwaukee, but the Brew Crew should go slightly overlooked with Coors Field, the Red Sox and Yankees grabbing the main attention once again. Straily is allowing 45.1% hard contact this season with more fly balls than ground balls. That could be bad news against this Brewers team that ranks 9th overall in ISO against RHP. Christian Yelich (revenge), Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames are my favorites and you can fill in with someone cheaper like Brad Miller depending on his spot in the order.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)