0 MLB DFS (7/11/18) - Bobby's Batter Up | DFS Karma

MLB DFS (7/11/18) - Bobby's Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP July 11th, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups! 

 Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

 

    1. Yankees (-149)  The Yankees come into this 11-game slate as a team that will, for the most part, be on the lower owned side.  With a huge Coors game, Red Sox against Bartolo Colon, Indians implied for > 5.3 runs, as well as the Astros/Cardinals with huge implied totals, we are going to see this Yankees team fall slightly under the radar with some suppressed ownership on, IMO, the highest upside stack on the slate.  Dylan Bundy is good. I am a fan long-term in my opinion but I think he has a high probability of getting rocked tonight against the Yankees.  Bundy has been extremely tough on right-handed bats so I'll probably have less exposure there but I am basically all in on the Yankees lefties.  Against lefties, Bundy has a 4.80 xFIP (compared to a 3.19 xFIP against righties), a K% that is 10.5% lower than vs. righties, and a .374 wOBA.  When you factor in how he pitches at HOME, the numbers get worse all around the board - which makes sense given this is a great hitter's ballpark.  Bundy's wOBA against lefties jumps above .400, his xFIP sky-rockets to an embarrassing 5.34, and his K% drops another 1.3%.  Aaron Hicks comes to me as the absolute lock here as a guy who is red hot and backs up his great play with great analytics.  Against RHP on the road, Hicks is as best as they come on the MLB's top offense with a 168 wRC+, .415 wOBA, 8.0 wRAA, and .286 ISO.  Brett Gardener is the next guy I want in my lineups who in these splits has a 113 wRC+, .336 wOBA, and an impressive .183 ISO given that he is not generally known for his power.  Greg Bird has been slumping which is why his numbers are suppressed but in this ballpark, in these conditions, I think we will get a lot out of his mediocre 88 wRC+, .299 wOBA, and .167 ISO.  The Bird is better than those number's imply and will come around on a hot streak sooner rather than later.  Obviously, you need to consider Aaron Judge who generally mashes from both sides of the plate as well as Miguel Andujar who could be playing with a chip on his shoulder after some trade rumors surfaced about the Yanks interest in Manny Machado who would take Andujar's spot at the hot corner.
            1. Favorite One-Off: Aaron Hicks
            2. Best Bet for a home run: Aaron Judge
    2. Orioles (+133) -  Sonny Gray is broken.  If you're a Yankee fan you most likely hate Sonny Gray.  He has had too few and far between bright spots this season and his time is running out.  Vegas continues to take his side and Gray continues to let Yankee backers down with horrible outing after horrible outing.  His morale is broken and I don't think he'll be back to his old self without some sort of DL stint, adjustment, or being sent down to the minors. I think this is only a matter of time and could happen after the Orioles knock him out of the game in this one.  I am going to have Yankee/Orioles stacks everywhere and I think it makes a lot of sense given the upside, weather, 9.5 rising vegas total, and pitcher's on the mound.  At first, Sonny Gray vs. Dylan Bundy might scare some people away given what these two guys can do at the top of their game but they are extremely vulnerable and should give up a ton of runs in this heat/humidity.  Manny Machado becomes an auto-lock for me as at home against RHP's he has a crazy 225 wRC+, backed up by a ridiculous wOBA - .500, a 20.5 wRAA, a .373 ISO, and a 1.217 OPS.  These are historic numbers that have not been accomplished on any small sample size.  These numbers are over 136 plate appearances in 2018.  Chance Cisco makes for an awesome play at only 2.5k who has a 109 wRC+, a .357 wOBA, and a .208 ISO in these splits.  Extremely impressive for a guy priced this cheap against a pitcher with an aHC% of 40% against left-handed batters.  Also consider Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Trey Mancini to round out this 5-man stack.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Manny Machado
          2. Best bet for a home run: Manny Machado
    3. Brewers (-165)I am going to be honest with you guys.  I am in love with the above two stacks but let me make this clear.  I WILL have both Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy in two different "hedge" lineups as they both are high potential pitcher's against teams with high K %s.  Both are priced extremely cheap and may even appear on a few #sharp DFS players lineups.  But going off the analytics and what Vegas is telling us I think they both get rocked and will have 80-85% bats compared to a 15-20% hedge of the pitchers.  In these "hedge" teams I'm looking to get exposure to the Brewers who have been doing damage in 2018.  This park is going to scare people away but Dan Straily is one of the luckiest pitcher's in baseball and the ballpark won't be able to help much against this high-powered Brewers offense.  Overall Straily has an embarrassing 4.96 xFIP, 1.8 HR/9, 5.74 FIP, 11.3% BB rate, 45.1% aHC %, while lacking any sort of fastball velocity (91.1 aMPH).  Straily is equally bad against both sides of the plate so we really want to dig into what Brewers bats do their damage against RHPs.  Start off with Jesus Aguilar who is having a huge breakout season and is one of the main reasons the Brewers are in the position they are in the playoff race.  Aguilar owns a 156 wRC+, a .405 wOBA, a 8.4 wRAA, .333 ISO (wow), and a .980 OPS.  Also, consider Christian Yelich (131 wRC+/.369 wOBA/4.7 wRAA/.852 OPS), Travis Shaw (129 wRC+/.365 wOBA/5.4 wRAA/.259 ISO), and Lorenzo Cain (123 wRC+/.800 OPS).
          1. Favorite One-Off: Christian Yelich
          2. Best bet for a home run: Jesus Aguilar
    Highest upside player picks per position 
    (High Owned, Low Owned)
     
    Catcher –   C. Iannetta, E. Gattis
    1st base –  P. Goldschmidt, M. Carpenter
    2nd base –  D. LeMahieu, O. Albies
    Shortstop –  F. Lindor, D. Gregorius
    3rd base – N. Arenado, J. Ramirez
    OF –  M. Betts, A. Pollock, C. Blackmon
         B. Gardener - if leading off, A. Judge, E. Thames
    When doing the research for my articles I oversee a ton of different analytics.  Below I'm going to include some reference marks for the different statistics I use as well as their definitions.  All of the below information is referenced from fangraphs.com.  
    Good luck everyone let's hit this slate out of the park!

     

    Written By: @DF_Advantage 

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, howeverwe do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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