MLB DFS 9/13/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Oakland A’s have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in team batting average, and third in OPS. They have been a significantly better offense on the road, where they are hitting .266 with a .469 slugging percentage and an .802 OPS. Oakland is averaging 5.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. Tonight, they are a -180 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, featuring an implied run total of 5.2 runs.
The A’s get a matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has struggled with a 1-6 record, 8.53 ERA, and 1.72 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He has also allowed a ridiculous 3.2 HR/9 with an 8.5 K/9 over his last 50.2 innings, as well. Bundy has struggled more against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .317 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a .404 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .225/.485/.323 line, while his opponents are hitting for a .274/.524/.367 line in Baltimore this season. The A’s feature one of the best offenses in the MLB on the road, and they get an elite matchup in a hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Seattle Mariners have featured plenty of offensive ups and downs this season, ranking 24th in the MLB in runs scored, 10th in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. They have featured a better offense on the road, where they feature a .263 average with a .420 slugging percentage and a .742 OPS. Seattle is also averaging 4.6 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game on the road. The Mariners are essentially playing in a pick ‘em in a game set at 9 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
Odrisamer Despaigne will be taking the mound for the Los Angeles Angels tonight. He has struggled through 15 games (four starts) this season, recording a 2-2 record with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. He has also allowed a 0.8 HR/9 with a 7.5 K/9 through 32.1 innings. Despaigne has struggled against everyone this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .323 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .369 wOBA. He’s also allowing righties to hit for a .297/.458/.362 line this season. The Mariners are an offense that could go a bit overlooked tonight, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Taylor has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .318 with a .682 slugging percentage and a 1.082 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 38% hard-hit and 69% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Taylor has also posted a .457 slugging percentage and a .222 ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Perez is only hitting .211 over his last 10 games, but he owns five extra-base hits in those games. He has posted 53% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over his last four games, as well. Perez gets an elite matchup tonight, and he possesses a career .459 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.
Turner can always be considered against left-handed pitching, as he owns a .351 average with a .577 slugging percentage and a .227 ISO against lefties this season. Turner has also posted 51% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Anderson has been throwing well over his last 10 starts, recording a 3-2 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over that span. He has also held his opponents to a 0.7 HR/9 with a 4.6 K/9 over his last 50.2 innings. Anderson scored 30.6 DK points in his last healthy start, as well. He’s a -180 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.9 runs.
Anderson gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second last in team wOBA. Anderson has been a better option against left-handed batters, holding them to a .250 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. Anderson is coming off of an injury, but he is not expected to see a pitch limit tonight. It’s an extremely small slate, and Anderson is a player that can be considered in all leagues for his price tag tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Pinder has been playing well recently, hitting .250 with a .429 slugging percentage and a .704 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 38% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. Pinder has struggled at times against right-handed pitching, but he owns a career .420 slugging percentage and a .195 ISO against righties.
I have already outlined Dylan Bundy above, so I won’t do that again. Pinder is expected to hit eighth in the Oakland lineup, which is less than ideal. With that being said, he’s playing in one of the best offenses in the MLB. He’s an option that can be used in all leagues tonight.
Bonifacio is only hitting .222 over his last 10 games, but he also owns four extra-base hits and five RBIs over that span. He has posted a 35% hard-hit rate with a 91 mph exit over the last 15 days, as well. Bonifacio has also been a more consistent option against left-handed pitching, as he owns 0.045 wOBA against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Stephen Gonsalves, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .432 average with a .568 slugging percentage and a .487 wOBA. Bonifacio is expected to hit fifth in the Royals lineup, and he continues to make a consistent option that comes with upside, as well.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)