0 Ben's NFL Week 13 Building Blocks | DFS Karma

Ben's NFL Week 13 Building Blocks

 

 

Quarterback

Top Tier: Russell Wilson- Russell Wilson has been playing out of his mind this entire season and it's just now becoming so apparent. He has dealt with one of the worst offensive lines in football and a literal non-existent run game throughout the entirety of this 2017 season. Gil Brandt had a fantastic stat citing that Russ has accounted for over 95% of the Seahawks offensive touchdowns this season. He's still their leading rusher going into week 13, and has been churning out ceiling type games for the last month. His price has adjusted to his performance, but with no high dollar Running Backs that seem like must plays on this slate Russell Wilson is a top cash game option once again. 

 

Mid Tier: Philip Rivers- Philip Rivers is fresh off destroying the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and winning Anthony and I all of the money...now he gets the...Browns. The Browns rank 27th in pass-defense DVOA and have been shredded for the greater part of the season. Their run-defense was stout for the first 10 weeks of the season, but injuries have hit them hard as of late and now it's all forces go for the opposition on offense. The run game instability and the eruption of Keenan Allen have boosted Rivers floor and he's in a money spot again this week. 

 

Low Tier: Brett Hundley- Brett Hundley finally looked good in something other than the preseason, as he put up 245 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Steelers in primetime last week. The Buccaneers defense has been terrible all season and they are giving up over 30 points per game on the road this season. Hundley hasn't ran a ton, but the ability he has to rush provides a bit more of a floor and at his price he doesn't need that many points to hit cash game value in a premier matchup at home. 

 

Running Back

Top Tier: Todd Gurley- Todd Gurley gets his time to shine in this spot as some of the normal names are not on the main slate this week. Gurley has cooled off a bit since his torrid start to the season, but he is the safest bet at Running Back this week. He has seen 18+ touches in 6 straight weeks and the Rams offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. The matchup isn't the best on the board, but the volume and safety is. 

 

Mid Tier: Kareem Hunt- Please don't stop reading...after Kareem Hunt has disappointed the masses the past two weeks I feel inclined to go back to the well for two main reasons. His price has come down to a much more reasonable range and his backup Charcandrick West is out this week. This season when West has been out, Hunt has played over 70% of the snaps in both games and hat his depressed price tag we can project him for 70+% again. The Jets rank 17th in run-defense DVOA and Hunt will see increased usage in the passing game without West. 

 

Low Tier: Kenyan Drake- This might shock some people, but the matchup against the Broncos isn't as bad as you originally will think. Yes, they have fixed the run-defense issues that plagued them last season and they currently rank 1st in the NFL in run-defense DVOA. That being said, the Broncos will be missing Derek Wolfe and Domata Peko this week both of which start on that Broncos defensive line. With Damien Williams injured for the Dolphins, Drake is in line for. high volume role and his matchup just got a tad easier to navigate. Volume is king. 

 

Wide Receiver

Top Tier: Keenan Allen- Keenan Allen has been, outside of Russell Wilson, the hottest player in the NFL over the last 3 weeks in terms of fantasy production. He is AVERAGING 30 fantasy points over the last two weeks and now draws a matchup against the Browns who rank 27th in pass-defense DVOA. Jason McCourty has been one of the best cover corners in the NFL this season for the Browns, and he does not travel into the slot which is a huge boost for Keenan Allen who runs the majority of his routes there. The only thing I see hurting Allen in this game is the game script in which the Chargers jump out to a huge lead and end up running a ton in the second half. That scenario is likely, but if they score a ton of points then that means Allen most likely had a good enough game to hit value in cash games, it just would eliminate his big ceiling. Generally, this is why I don't place as much value onto possible blowout situations as some people do around the industry. 

 

Mid Tier: DeAndre Hopkins- DeAndre Hopkins has been in amazing form this season regardless of who is at Quarterback for the Texans. Nuk has seen double-digit targets in 5 out of the last 6 weeks with the outlier game being 9 targets. He went for 125 yards on Monday night against an above-average Ravens secondary and now gets a matchup with the Titans who rank 24th in pass-defense DVOA. Hopkins in in a blow-up spot at an affordable price and is a safe bet for 10+ targets once again. 

 

Low Tier: Davante Adams- Davante Adams has continued to be the preferred target of Brett Hundley yet his price hasn't fully adjusted to that fact yet. With Hundley under center, Adams has seen just under 30% of the marketshare for the Packers and has hauled in 25 balls over the last 4 weeks. As I mentioned above, the Bucs give up over 30 points per game on the road this season and their defense ranks 30th in pass-defense DVOA. Points will be scored in this one, as the Packers implied team total has risen to 24 points and might climb even higher before kickoff on Sunday. 

 

Tight End

Top Tier: Rob Gronkowski- Rob Gronkowski, in Buffalo (where he is from), in a spot that he has routinely smashed in, against a defense that has been crumbling as of late and the Patriots have over a 28 implied point total...sign me up if you have enough money to fit him in. 

 

Mid Tier: Jared Cook- So, who exactly is going to catch passes for the Oakland Raiders on Sunday? Amari Cooper is out, Michael Crabtree is suspended leaving the Raiders with Jared Cook, Cordarelle Patterson, Seth Roberts and Johnny Holton as their pass catchers. Cook has been pretty reliable this season and has seen 5+ targets in 5 straight weeks. Cooks also has a dream matchup against the New York Giants who have been the stone worst team at defending Tight Ends all season. 

 

Low Tier: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Draftkings Only)- This is a Draftkings only play as ASK has dipped all the way down to $4k while he is till above Jared Cook on Fanduel. ASJ has a great matchup with the Chiefs who rank 20th in pass-defense DVOA and he has seen 5+ targets in every game except for 2 this season and has seen 16 over the last two weeks. Josh McCown likes to use his Tight Ends and the emergence of Robby Anderson helps open up the field for ASJ. 

 

 

 

 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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