Ben's NFL Week 14 Building Blocks

 

 

Quarterback

Top Tier: Alex Smith- Alex Smith came out ON FIRE in Week 13 with Andy Reid no longer calling the plays in Kansas City. Smith threw for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns and now gets the Oakland Raiders and their defense that ranks dead-last in pass-defense DVOA. The Raiders secondary is terrible, and they only have 1 interception on the season! The Chiefs have a big 26.5 implied team total. Smith is a great cash play if you can afford him.  

 

Mid Tier: Jimmy Garoppolo- I'm so far in on JimmyG this week and there's just no going back. I'm like Will Byers in the upside down deep in JimmyG shares. The Texans defense has been banged up for the latter part of the season and Garoppolo looked fantastic in his first start for the 49ers. I fully expect this to be the Garoppolo coming our party and I want to be ahead of the curve. 

 

Low Tier: DeShone Kizer- Some people are probably already laughing at me, but at his price on Draftkings I think you can consider Kizer. He has rushing upside, which raises his floor and he has had multiple top 10 fantasy weeks this season. The Packers rank 21st in pass-defense DVOA and have recently lost Kevin King and Davon House to injury. The weather is one thing that could affect my view here, so monitor the weather on Sunday AM. 

 

Running Back

Top Tier: Todd Gurley- With no Le'Veon Bell on the main slate, Todd Gurley is the premier cash game RB play and the safest bet for volume on Sunday. He's 2nd in the NFL in touches behind Bell and he is due for positive regression in the touchdown department. The matchup isn't that good against the Eagles, but the Eagles/Rams game boasts a near 50 point O/U so Vegas is expecting points to come from somewhere. Last week, with Robert Woods out, Gurley was also their leading receiver and I could see that happening again this week. 

 

Mid Tier: Lamar Miller- The Texans are going to be really thin at RB on Sunday with D'Onta Foreman and Alfred Blue both out. Miller has seen 18+ touches in each of the last 3 weeks and now he gets a 49ers defense that ranks 20th in run-defense DVOA. Vegas is expecting points to be scored in this game, and I love Miller in all formats this week. 

 

Low Tier: Gio Bernard- Gio is as close to a cash game lock as you can get this week against the Bears. The Bears have a strong defense on paper, but they are banged up and Gio is going to see elite level volume this week. He's not a normally a traditional running back, but with Jeremy Hill and Joe Mixon both out he is going to have to be. He played every single snap after Mixon left Monday Night Football last week and he should see over 90% of the snaps again. At his price, that's just way too cheap. 

 

Wide Receiver

Top Tier: DeAndre Hopkins- Nuk has seen 9+ targets in each of the last 6 games and has gone for over 75 yards in each of those games as well. He hasn't been affected by Tom Savage taking over and the 49ers rank 30th in pass DVOA. Hopkins will completely out-physical these weak San Francisco DB's and we should see a huge performance on Sunday. 

 

Mid Tier: Larry Fitzgerald- Larry Fitz has just been a monster this year and he has seen over 9 targets and went over 90 yards receiving in 3 of the last 4 games...that outlier being against the Jaguars. The Titans rank 25th in pass-defense DVOA and have been shredded all season long. Blaine Gabbert isn't as good as Carson Palmer, but he has exceled at feeding his slot receiver throughout his career and it's the perfect storm for another big Fitz week in week 14. 

 

Low Tier: Josh Gordon- Note: like Kizer, the weather is the only thing that will move me off Gordon and even then it would be hard to get me off of him. He returned last week from his 3 year hiatus and literally didn't miss a beat. Casey Hayward came out and said that Gordon was the toughest player he defended this year and that's quite the compliment. He dominated the target% from Kizer and was missed on what would of been 2 long touchdowns. If the weather is okay, fire him up. 

 

Tight End

Top Tier: Travis Kelce- See above-- Alex Smith. The spot is so good for KC at home against this terrible Raiders defense. We've been targeting the Raiders with Tight Ends all season given how bad their linebackers are and with Gronk suspended Kelce becomes the top dog. 

 

Mid Tier: Jason Witten- This one is a little off the board but Witten has OWNED the Giants throughout his career and the Giants have been the stone worst team at defending Tight Ends this season. The matchup is fantastic given his price point and all you need is him to fall into the end zone to hit value. 

 

Low Tier: Stephen Anderson- I expect Anderson to be the chalky value play at Tight end this week as he compiled 12 targets last week. He takes a bit of a hit with Will fuller expected back, but with C.J. Fiedorowicz and Bruce Ellington sidelined he will see targets and he isn't a prototypical Tight End. Anderson was a WR in college and is crazy athletic. He is so cheap, he doesn't need much to pay off but I do prefer paying up for Kelce. 

 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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