*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *
Tier 1: Cam Newton ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)- Cam is back to his old self where he is actually rushing the football. With the bye week, I feel like people will forget how good Cam has been playing and why he is close to a must-start this week in GPP and even in cash games. He does not have an influx of weapons at his disposal but should be dumping off plenty of passes to McCaffery which will only contribute to his stat boosting. The Panthers are fired up and I love Newton in this matchup coming off a bye week where I think he goes under-owned.
Tier 2: Derek Carr ($5,600 DK/ $7,500 FD) - Carr has been playing pretty bad football and I think it's been the entire team out of sorts instead of Carr's actual play. I believe this is going to be a huge Amari Cooper week as well as Talib should limit Crabtree on the outside, leaving Cooper with the much more beatable Bradley Roby with an opportunity to do major damage over the top against a terrible safety in Darian Stewart. The Broncos also get exposed over the middle of the field with TE's so look for Jarred Cook to potentially have a big game. I'm going to have a ton of Carr/Cooper/Cook (the 3 C's) and I think they go extremely low owned this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): Cam Newton
RUNNING BACK :
Tier 1: Kareem Hunt ($8,000 DK/$7,700 FD)- Coming off a week where Hunt let EVERYONE down I expect his ownership to be slightly suppressed in what could be the breakout week everyone's been waiting for from Hunt since he exploded on to the NFL scene. The Bills are obviously struggling on defense where they have allowed over 100 points combined in the last two weeks. Linebacker Preston Brown is one of the worst in all of football and should get destroyed by Hunt in the passing game as well as on the ground. Running back at home + favored = correlation and we're going to see Hunt lower owned than you think.
Tier 2: DeMarco Murray ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)- I was soooooo close to pulling the trigger on Murray last week when I saw his price in one of my higher stakes tournaments. That decision not to stick with my gut cost me about $10,000 and I am still kicking myself. Murray has been struggling with injuries all season which is why we have seen less production then we're used to. Yes, Henry gets some carries but let's not forget who DeMarco Murray is. The low 5k range for a guy with his upside is just disrespectful and definitely makes Murray a fantastic GPP play this week. I'm a week late but getting on now so I don't miss the Murray train.
Tier 3: Joe Mixon ($4,400 DK / $6,200 FD)- Every sharp NFL analyst I spoke with predicted that Mixon would have a huge year. He was a beast coming out of college and has really been disappointing so far, this season. This is not a great play stat wise considering the Browns have on of the best rush defenses in all of football (currently ranked 1st DVOA). This comes as a pure GPP punt for the price and ownership. Keep in mind this is the Browns, and something always happens where they will lose this game. Bengals will look to control the ball at home and I really think Mixon sees a heavy workload this week. I get that it's not the greatest matchup on paper but the GPP factors besides match-up are popping for me and I think this is a great spot.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Joe Mixon
Tier 1: Tyreek Hill ($6,900 DK / $7,300 FD) - TyFREAKKKKK. I saw Anthony listed him in his final thoughts and I couldn't support this play more. I don't think anyone is going to play him and he could SMASH in this spot. If you're pivoting off of Julio Jones in GPP's to play Michael Thomas (like I am with many lineups), I also think you should get even more contrarian with Tyreek Hill in a similar price range. I may just have a Chiefs onslaught this week even though I usually hate playing Alex Smith as I don't think he has much upside but this is an amazing spot with so many weapons around him. Lock in the fastest player in the NFL as a player that could take down a tournament for you.
TIER 2: Amari Cooper ($5,400 DK / $7,000 FD) - With Crabtree locked up by Talib I expect a very active day for Amari Cooper. Cooper seems to be a "boom or bust" play nowadays but I'm not getting off the hype train. This guy is just in his third year and had improved in his first two. I don't think he has just "fallen off", he will get back on track and I think he finishes the season extremely strong. This is a spot against the Broncos that many people are going to back out on but I'm telling you Cooper is going to have a big game. His upside for this price is just stupid and you MUST have at least a few shares.
Tier 3: Sammy Watkins ($5,100 DK / $6,400 FD) - At the start of the week I didn't realize how chalky Watkins would be, even with Woods out for the game. Watkins has been gaining popularity/ownership every single day he gets talked up more and I absolutely hate it. He has so much upside while the only thing holding him back this year has been volume. He's almost guaranteed a ton of work this week and I don't see how he doesn't go bananas as this is the opportunity he's been waiting for. He's going to be popular but you need to lock him in because he's going to smash value.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Amari Cooper
Top Play: Rob Gronkowski ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) - Gronk has not gone nuclear and I think he is "due". He's dropping in price and if you haven't noticed take a close look at his price on DK. It's obviously a sign. The Dolphins are 31st in passing DVOA and 25th in DVOA against the TE. I always think that Gronk is a little lower owned than he should be and it's most likely due to the price. I get that this is a premium and a play that could bust your lineup but it's a major edge to have 25+ points from your TE on what should be a high scoring slate. I think you're going to need to take risks like these to win big this week.
Now let's get into some strategy for Week 12.
If you've been using my article you've had massive success this NFL season and that's only going to continue as I spend 15+ hours per week on finding the best GPP plays and putting them all into this article for you. Along with my article make sure to be utilizing all the content/tools/articles/livestreams/lineups we provide at DFS Karma. Trust what we've done, trust what we're doing, and follow us to the money this week.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP's plays throughout the weekend between our Livestream tomorrow night and a periscope Q&A sometime either Saturday night or Sunday morning! Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET'S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE - Follow me on Twitter :)
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