0 [Week 17] Bold Calls, Game Theory, Final Thoughts and Rankings | DFS Karma

[Week 17] Bold Calls, Game Theory, Final Thoughts and Rankings

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Chalk options: The players below that are going to be owned by a ton of players across the industry In cash and tournaments. It is important to understand these numbers when crunching for your ‘game theory purposes.’ These Players are best used for Double Up and Heads-Up games.

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

Rodgers

DJ

Jordy

Kelce

Ryan

Rodgers

TY Hilton

Brees

Freeman

Baldwin

Ingram

Steve Smith

 

 

 

The Next Tier of players listed in the sections below of what I have come to a final analysis after 30 hours of research throughout the week using our analytics along with some of the most premium sources of Intel in the industry. The below represent the players I will have THE MOST exposure too in my main tournament and big dollar GPP teams. The below players will be in my lineups with the greatest exposure starting from the top and moving downward per position. For example, Player ‘1’ = the most likely person to be in my main lineup!

 

QUARTERBACK

 

  1. Aaron Rodgers $7,700 – This week is a crazy week to puzzle piece ideal players for optimal lineups, but at QB it’s pretty easy at the top. Look, it’s a do or die game with arguably the best QB to ever play position. GB still can’t runt the ball so look for Rodgers take control and throw for 40-45 times against a defense that is on pace to finish 8th worst in NFL history in opposing QB’s averaging a 72.5% completion rate. Rodgers is a lock in cash but with such heavy ownership you can argue the fade in a major GPP if you are making “one big time lineup.”
  2. Kirk Cousins $6,500 –Surprised right? About 90% of the ‘touts’ in the industry have Ryan / Brees / Wilson ranked 2nd on there big board. Lots of things working in Cousins favor. Again, a win or go home game for the Redskins. Second, Cousins is 370 yards away from a magical 5,000 yard season in which he has expressed before the season he was capable of achieving and will stamp his case to getting a huge deal long term. Third, the Giants will be resting starters at least 75% of the game…just look at that vegas line! Cousins comes at a nice discount on Draftkings and you can get very contrarian by pairing Cousins with DJAX and funnel in the chalk from the other two big impact games.
  3. Matt Ryan $7,400 – Ryan is chalky but rightfully so. He will come in at half the ownership of Rodgers since they are within only $300 of each other. Again, this time of year is a very important to trust Vegas and with a 32 implied point total we and a ridiculous 56.5 game total, we can expect fireworks everywhere in this game. Ryan also has a chance to make his case for NFL MVP so look for him to play extremely sharp in this one and finish strong to lock up the number 2 seed.   NO is struggling against the pass and there top corner Delvin Breaux is out once again. As I stated last week I firmly believe Kyle Shanahan is the best offensive coordinator in the league and he will expose this porous secondary.
  4. Drew Brees $7,600 – Similar case with Ryan, we have a total that is 8 points higher than any other game. You absolutely need exposure on both sides of the ball and Brees will come in even lower owned than Ryan and Rodgers. Also, Brees is averaging 324 yards in Atlanta since Dan Quinn took over as head coach. If you are like me and make 2-3 main lineups in big time tournaments you absolutely need a game stack in the game and I prefer to go with Brees as a pivot off Ryan and you can still stack Atlanta WR in the same lineup. Don’t forget, Atlanta has been awful against the 24th against the pass in DVOA.
  5. Russell Wilson $6,800 – Wilson has been very hit or miss and particularly missing on the road as of late which does have some concern for me but there’s just too much tilting in Wilson’s favor that he lands as my 5th ranked Draftkings QB. He has a fair price of $6,800 and is going against the 28th ranked team in DVOA against the pass and is ranked dead last in DVOA in the middle / deep middle of the field (Baldwin). Another must win here for the Seahawks as they can theoretically lock up the #2 seed if Atlanta were to lose. They have an offensive line that is in shambles so I fully expect Wilson to air it out often in this one. Also, San Fran struggles against running QB’s who can roll out in the pocket to create even bigger plays.
  6. Matthew Stafford $6,000 – falling more in love with Stafford as the week progresses, mostly for two reasons. The first is that you can game stack the Sunday night hammer game between DET / GB and get a huge edge on ownership alone if Stafford hits value and Rodgers doesn’t throw for 5 touchdowns, which is a very reasonable expectation. The public probably thinks otherwise, hence the huge ownership on Rodgers and rightfully so. If you want to win a GPP you have to make plays like this and you can still stack Jordy / Tate / Ebron / and even add Ty Montgomery to ‘steal’ a touchdown from Rodgers. Stafford also threw for 360 yards in their first meeting and GB is giving up 290 yards per game in their last 4 outings alone. This game is at home as well.
  7. Blake Bortles $5,600 – Early in the week I had him on my main lineup. I still am debating putting him on my second or third just for salary relief and he will be much lower owned. Not only is Indy getting gashed in the pass in the last 6 weeks, they are just so beat up physically with several injuries. Derek Carr carved this secondary up last week with 3 td’s in the first half and Bortles and Allen Robinson have been very vocal this week again about finishing strong to prove to themselves and the league they still are force going into next year.

 

*Sneaky Play: Brady

*Fades – everyone not involved in playoff contention

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

  1. David Johnson $9,800 – I don’t need to go into detail, as you know the drill. He is the best project player regardless of position for a floor and a ceiling, as usual. Lock him in your cash games and get over exposure in GPP”s. He only needs a 157 yards to get to a 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 receiving season.
  2. Devonta Freeman $7,000– Freeman will be chalky, but maybe not as much as you think. Projected at only 15% owned I will definitely be over exposed at around 30-40%. Freeman has ridiculous splits when playing at home vs on the road. He is averaging 1.3 touchdowns at home this season. There is the Tevin Coleman ‘tilt’ factor but the fact is as I explain weekly in this PREMIUM Draftkings article that DFS is like poker. You have to continue to play the best hands by the book and in the long run if you consistently play by the book positive regression will favor you mathematically over the course of time.   There is a ridiculous 32 implied point total in this and Freeman ran wild in his first meeting for 152 yards and 5 catches for 55 yards. This game will be explosive and you need exposure.
  3. Mark Ingram $5,600 – As some industry experts have labeled him “Angry Mark Ingram” is a better Mark Ingram. He’s playing mad at the fact that he has been taken out at the goal line several times this year and lost significant snap count percentage to Tim Hightower. That my friends, is a thing of the past. The pendulum in snap count, goal line carries and overall usage has swung in Ingrams favor drastically in the last 3 weeks. I touted him last week before most others and I am happy to go back to the well in this explosive matchup that we keep harping on. The total literally has risen again as I write this article, now up to 57. Atlanta has old outside linebackers and they really struggle with backs who can catch the ball out of the back field. This sets up as a premier play for Ingram.  
  4. Jacquizz Rodgers $4,900 –Very chalky and almost a lock in cash games for sheer volume alone. Carolina has quit and after a strong start to the year at stopping the run they are ranked 8th worst in the league in the last 4 weeks at stopping the run. No Luke Keuchely playing as well helps. Rodgers will get 22-25 touches and a few targets.  
  5. Thomas Rawls $5-800 – You heard it here first. Thomas Rawlz will be in the millionaire lineup. I just don’t understand why he is forecasted for only 10% ownership? I get that the o-line is terrible for Seattle but they have the 3rd highest total on the board against one of the most historic rush defenses of all time. Just do the digging on the box scores of any running back who has faced San Fran this season.   I was concerned early this week as well myself about the injury to rawls but I am calling the ‘bluff’ and ‘re-raising’ my chips all in here. I think Rawls makes my final main roster.
  6. Darren Sproles $4,000 – I love his price and should see majority of the looks here. I know they have Byron Marshall and Terrell Watson lingering but I still expect most of the snaps and targets to go to sproles. This is a game the Eagles want to win and will be playing aggressively against some of the backups from Dallas.
  7. Jordan Howard $6-800 - Going so under-owned its insane. Projected at only 2-4 percent owned and he is in the driver seat for some of the most usage of any RB on the board against a Defense that is highly overrated against the run.  
  8. Lesean McCoy $8,900 – Similar to my “Cousins” ranking, McCoy is a GPP play only, so buyer beware. However, we are talking about the second highest projected RB in raw points by a pretty wide margin against a Defense that has given up. The Jets are ranked number 3 against the run for the year but as I stress each week you must dive into the numbers further with a larger microscope. In just the last 4 weeks, the Jets have given up on average 142 rushing yards per game, which is good for 5th worst in the league. The thing that concerns me a bit is that Buffalo is out of the playoffs and why would a franchise risk McCoy getting hurt? On any average week McCoy would be owned by 30% of the field and we are forecasting only 10% ownership. GPP’s are essentially a game of mastering ownership percentages and if you make 3 main lineups I would get him on one lineup for example. That way you will be over exposed to the field by a large margin.
  9. Fitzgerald Toussaint $4,300 – I am going to let the public bite on the DeAngleo Williams information and I will pivot to Toussaint. Look, Williams has been beat up all year, had just one carry last week and is 33 years old. He may seem solid carries in the first and second quarter but I think Toussaint ultimately out snaps him on a 3:1 ratio. Similar to my analysis on Rawls, the browns are not far behind in terms of stopping the run. Keep in mind the browns must lose to secure the number 1 seed. A home team, favorite is always an ideal situation and I am buying here.

 

SNEAKY – Blount, Tevin Coleman, Latavius Murray, Crowell

  

WIDE RECIEVERS

 

  1. Jordy Nelson $8-100 – Not much to say here. Will be the chalkiest player on the slate. He is a lock in cash games and an obvious play in GPP’s as well. Darius Slay doesn’t scare me and this is a must game. Rodgers will look to his blanket frequent and often. I expect 12-15 targets in this game if they can get Jordy into the slot for half the snaps.
  2. Mike Evans $8-000 – I’m taking the plunge for a 3rd straight week on Mike even though he keeps falling short of massive expectations. He needs 9 catches to get to 100 catches on the season. Trust me, against this soft zone he will get there. He will also be a little lower owned than people think because he keeps burning people. Again people, keep making 3 main teams and entering into all the 3 entry max tournaments on Draftkings and keep doing what I do. Make a chalky team. A game stack team. And a contrarian team. You can’t win GPP’s without applying game theory. Try building a team around Julio, Jordy and Evans for your contrarian team. There is enough value at RB this week.
  3. Doug Baldwin $7-200 – chalky, but a must play. Niners lost their ‘best’ CB to a broken collarbone in the slot and there is no one to cover Baldwin. Niners rank dead last in DVOA in the middle of the field and that’s where Baldwin lives.
  4. Julio Jones $8-400 – Ohhhhh baby!!!   Keep in mind, my article involves game theory mixed in with raw ceiling projections and predictive analytics. What does that mean in English? I like to play guys with huge upside that will be low owned. Julio should come in around only 5% owned at a season low price of $8,400 going against a secondary that is in shambles without Delvin Breaux. Also, Julio burned a lot of people last week (including me) and most of the public believes he still is hurt. He may be, but its week 17 and Even if he plays 15% more snaps than he did last week we have an elite stud in the highest total game of the year at historic low owned percentage. If he goes off, you can literally take down a tourney if you pivot from Jordy and Jordy doesn’t excel.  
  5. Golden Tate $6-600 – No one in the Green Bay secondary can stop him. Look at what Adam Thielen did last week. Also, Tate averages about 3.6 more DK points per game when Riddick is out.  
  6. Steve Smith $4-900 – You know the drill. Narrative street. Smith will be retiring and he will be FORCE fed the ball. However, he comes in lower in my rankings because of how good Cincinnati is against the pass.
  7. Allen Robinson $5-500– I was all in on Robinson last week and he will make one of my main lineups again. Love this kid. He’s got something to prove and show the world how talented he is and they want to finish the season strong. Indy can't stop the pass.  
  8. Thomas / Cooks – Obv great plays in this amazing matchup but I prefer Thomas over cooks.   
  9. Desean Jackson - over 100 yards in 5 of the last 6 games and gets to play against backups in a game where they have to win.  Lock him in with Cousins.  
  10. Cam Meredith – Vegas is juicing this game up big this week and I love the matchup Cam gets in the slot with Captain Munnerlyn.

 

Sneaky – J.J Nelson, Chris Hogan, Pryor, Lafell

TIGHT END

  1. Kelce $5,000 – Huge misprice by draftkings\
  2. Ertz $4,800 – Jordan Matthews out = huge uptick in targets
  3. Ebron $3,600– tougher matchup than you think but they need him big
  4. Graham $4,500 – Love pairing him with Wilson / Baldwin.

 

 

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