Deshaun Watson/Lamar Miller/DeAndre Hopkins (Watson tore ACL)
At this point, the Houston Texans seem as if they will be the highest owned stack of the slate and for good reason. Over the last five weeks, they are averaging 39 points per game. They have also scored at least 33 points in every game over that span. They get an elite matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who are allowing 406.8 total yards and 30.8 points per game this season. The Texans are -13 point favorites in a game set at 49 points this week, giving them the highest implied team total of the slate at 31 points.
Deshaun Watson has scored at least two touchdowns in each of his last five games, averaging a tremendous 294.4/3.6 line over that span. He has also added 186 yards and one touchdown on the ground in those games. Lamar Miller has struggled quite a bit this season, but he has seen at least 15 touches in every game. Houston will also likely be looking to run the clock out in the second half of this game, leaving Miller a more enticing option that multiple receivers. DeAndre Hopkins is the last part of this stack. On the season, he is averaging 10.9 targets per game. He has also seen an uptick in touchdown production recently, scoring six touchdowns in his last four games. He is Watson’s favorite target, making him a must start part of the stack.
Dak Prescott/Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams
The Dallas Cowboys have been another offense that has been on fire over their last five games. Over that span, they are averaging 32.4 points per game. They get a matchup against an average Kansas City Chiefs defense. This season, Kansas City is allowing 392.3 total yards and 22.5 points per game. The Cowboys are small underdogs, but the game is set at 51 points. Overall, they have a respectable implied team total of 25 points, which is one of the highest on the slate this week.
Dak Prescott was not needed in last week’s win. He saw limited opportunities because of the rain, attempting only 22 passes. He had scored at least two touchdowns in each of his five games before that, including two games with four touchdowns. The Cowboys could lean on Prescott more this week with Ezekiel Elliott suspended. That will open the door for Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams to potentially see more targets. In games that Prescott attempts more than 35 pass, Bryant and Williams are combining for 16.8 targets per game. That is significantly higher than the 9.3 targets per game they combine for in games that Prescott throws the ball less than 35 times. If Dallas is looking to lean more on their passing attack without Elliott, this week will be the cheapest the group will be, making them a great stacking option.
Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin/Jimmy Graham
The Seattle Seahawks do not have the best offense in the NFL, but they have scored more than 40 points in multiple games this season. They come with elite upside, and they get a great matchup against the Washington Redskins this week. The Redskins are currently allowing 322.6 total yards and 25.7 points per game this season. The Seahawks are -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 45 points. They have the third highest implied team total on the slate at 26.3 points.
Russell Wilson is a player that has always gotten better as the season progresses. That has been the case this season, as well. In his last two games, Wilson has thrown for 786 yards and seven touchdowns. He has also added 40 rushing yards to his totals in those games. He has attempted at least 35 pass attempts in five of his last six games, as well. Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham have been the biggest parts of the Seahawks receiving game, combining for 42.6% of the Seahawks targets this season. More importantly, Graham has 12 red zone targets this season, leading the Seattle team. He has twice as many red zone targets as anyone else on the Seattle offense, while Baldwin has a respectable five red zone targets this season. If Seattle scores, it will more than likely be one of these two players.
High Upside GPP Stack
Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Michael Thomas
The New Orleans Saints offense has found quite a bit of success this season. They get an elite matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, as well. Tampa Bay is currently allowing 386.4 total yards and 24.0 points per game this season. Surprisingly, the Saints offense has been better on the road this season, but Brees has been a significantly better quarterback at home throughout his career. New Orleans is a -7 point favorite in a game set at 50 points, giving them an elite implied team total of 28.5 points.
It has been tough to trust Drew Brees this season because the Saints have been running the ball more this season. With that being said, he is still an elite quarterback when given the opportunities, and this game could become a shootout early on. Alvin Kamara is the sexy pick at running back because of his flashy play, but Mark Ingram is the correct pick. Over the last three weeks, Ingram is averaging 21.7 carries and 5.3 targets per game, while Kamara is averaging only 9.0 carries and 4.3 targets per game over that span. Most importantly, Ingram is also leading the team in red zone targets. The Saints have a few other players that can be considered, but I opted to go with Michael Thomas, who is their number one receiver. He’s leading the team in targets, averaging 8.9 targets per game. He is also tied for second on the team in red zone targets with six. He has somewhat been flying under the radar this season, but he is a consistent option with tremendous upside.