Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 6 of the 2019 NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 3+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
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High Tier: Lamar Jackson ($6900 – DK ) – As I talked about last week, when playing GPPs, especially a GPP like the milli-maker, it is critical to look at the highest percentile outcome. This will be spoken about in the rest of the industry at the WR position but to truly hit “the Nuts” you need to focus on the 90th percentile range of outcomes for all players you roster. There are 2-3 players who have the type of week-winning upside at the QB position weekly and those are the QBs that can add to their passing ceilings with their ability to rush the football. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson are the elite options in that category. Given the price of Mahomes and the recency bias of Watson, I believe we’re getting the best value out of Lamar Jackson which is why he is my top tier QB option this week. I’m fine playing him naked but actually believe it creates a somewhat contrarian stack when pairing him with 2 pass catchers.
Mid Tier: Kyler Murray ($6500 – DK ) – Murray has been showing his rushing upside a lot more lately and as you can see, his price is starting to creep up. This is still a “buy-low” spot on Murray where he hasn’t broken any slates and is still priced below the likes of Jackson/Mahomes/Watson while I believe possessing the same upside – even if he hasn’t shown it at the NFL level yet this season.
The Falcons are a team who allow a ton of these QB rushes and dump-offs to running backs as they look to prevent the big play. Murray is the type of QB who seems to match up perfectly against the Falcons general scheme. Pairing him with David Johnson (or Chase Edmonds if Johnson ends up being limited), would be a very contrarian stack this week that not many pros who run 150+ lineups will have due to the fact that historically pairing a QB-RB without any other pass-catchers is negative EV. This is an approach I’d take in a larger field tournament.
Low Tier: Gardner Minshew ($5000 – DK ) – People think of Minshew mainly as a meme on Twitter and Instagram. This is not the case as Minshew is proving to be a capable starter at the NFL level. This week’s matchup with the Saints could be a huge turnaround in the publics’ view on Minshew where people realize this kid is legit. Fournette will be the chalky cash gameplay this week while the natural leverage will be to play Minshew with two pass-catchers.
Minshew actually projects as one of the top values on the slate at just 5k on Draftkings and although a ton of ownership projection information is not out yet… I’m willing to bet we get Minshew sub-5% owned. I believe it’ll be very unlikely Minshew does not hit value this Sunday. Make sure to hedge your Minshew lineups with Fournette exposure elsewhere. A 2-3 TD game from Fournette is the only way I see Minshew not getting there.
Deep Sleeper: Baker Mayfield
High Tier: Nick Chubb ($7,300 – DK ) – I am veryyyyy high on the Browns this week. Although I listed Baker as a deep sleeper, I am going to be very exposed to the Browns QB. Chubb will be basically in every lineup I don’t have Baker where I think the Browns explode this week. The public, in general, is too down on this team and we know they have the talent to turn it around on any given week. The total on this game currently sits at 46 and I imagine we see it creep up to 47 before lock on Sunday. At home, this is a turn the ship moment for the Browns, Baker, Chubb, OBJ, and the rest of the team.
If you’ve been riding the Browns this far, don’t give up on them at some of the lowest ownership we’ve seen so far in a fantastic home matchup.
Mid-Tier: LeVeon Bell ($6,400 – DK ) – Bell really hasn’t gotten off to the start some more casual fans thought he would on the Jets but he should be in line for a major workload again this week which is one of the most important things he has going for him this week as opportunity is everything.
Sam Darnold is back this week which is huge for the Jets offense as a whole and should actually translate to higher efficiency for Bell in the backfield. A player with Bell’s projected MS of rushes/TDs should be owned across a lot of your lineups.
Low Tier: Kenyan Drake ($4,400 – DK )- Drake is the clear leverage play here in tournaments where Adrian Peterson is looking like the chalkier option getting attention from the DFS industry. Before updating this section that looked to actually be the case but the industry is #sharp and we’re seeing Drake get the attention he deserves. I’m not going to take too high of a stand here with the increased projecting ownership but still, want a lot of Drake in my lineups at just 4.4k this week.
Deep Sleeper: Damien Williams
High Tier: Odell Beckam Jr. ($6,800 – DK ) – The 90th percentile outcome for OBJ is one of the top three on the slate and when you consider price and ownership there is not much analysis needed here. Do people actually think that OBJ isn’t good anymore? Maybe, lol. I am going to be close to all-in on OBJ this week as I think it’s a true blow-up spot.
Mid Tier: Jarvis Landry ($5,200 – DK ) – The Browns love is not biased like it may be with the rest of the Karma team this week. I am not a Browns fan, so me taking this large of a stand on a team should tell you something. I am going to be all-in on all the pieces from this game. Don’t forget to LOAD up on Tyler Lockett for the bring back.
Low-Tier: Robby Anderson ($4,000 DK ) – I am buying Anderson everywhere right now. He had some of the hardest CB matchups in the entire league through the first few weeks of the season, his QB was out for multiple weeks, and it was just the start of the season. Robby Anderson has week winning upside and is priced down due to lack of early-season production and the uncertainty of whether his QB would be the USC star or the janitor they picked up off the street. Darnold’s IN and Anderson should be part of your core plays this week.
Deep Sleeper: Deebo Samuel
Mark Andrews ($4,800 DK ) – I talked above how pairing Jackson with pass catchers is actually contrarian as too many people are just playing Jackson naked and ignoring correlation. Andrews is going to go lower owned as people will naturally be gravitating to Kittle who is priced very close.
Andrews is seeing increased snaps week by week and has a key role in the Ravens offense. If you’re playing Lamar Jackson, it’d be tough for me to imagine a game where he hits his ceiling without Andrews also getting there.
Deep Sleeper: Jeremy Sprinkle
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter