Welcome to the week 17 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Mike Evans is still leading the league in total air yards, but Julio Jones is starting to catch him. Jones needs 14 air yards in Week 17 to surpass Evans, but he didn’t practice earlier this week. The next highest is John Brown at 1,687. Last week, Evans obviously did not play.
On the season, Evans surpassed 1,800 total air yards, catching 67-of-118 targets for 1,157 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 15.4, and his air yards market share came in at 35%. Fantasy owners can’t complain about his 230.7 point-per-reception fantasy points, but not having him in the final weeks of the fantasy football playoffs will hurt.
This Sunday, Evans will not suit up. Chris Godwin is likely out as well. Breshad Perriman is stepping into a much larger role, and last week, he earned over 200 total air yards, catching 7-of-12 targets for 102 receiving yards. He is worth consideration in both daily fantasy and season-long football leagues. The Tampa Buccaneers play the Atlanta Falcons, so Jones could break Evans’s lead against his own team.
Last Week Leader:
John Ross (CIN)
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John Ross is poised to have a breakout season in 2020, but he needs to figure out how to stay off of the injured reserve list first. He missed 10 weeks in 2019, but prior to his injury, the Cincinnati Bengals frequently forced him the ball. Last week, he earned a league-high 283 total air yards, catching 6-of-13 targets for 84 receiving yards. His average depth of target (aDOT) exceeded 20 yards, which shows the insane upside that Ross possesses.
On the season, his air yards total surpassed 700, and he caught 26-of-51 targets for 464 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. His aDOT was slightly under 15, and his air yards market share eclipsed 30%. His target share was less than 20%, but when he is targeted, it tends to be on deep passes down the field. In both season-long and daily fantasy leagues, his ceiling is about as high as it gets for a speedy wide receiver.
In Week 17, the Bengals square off against the Cleveland Browns, and Ross is worth consideration in all formats. He can score a touchdown from anywhere on the field, and while his reception per target rate is low, his yards per target are high. Next season, the Bengals are going to have to play better on the offensive side of the ball, and if Joe Mixon finds more success than in 2019, it could open up things downfield for Ross. Ross is worth stashing in dynasty leagues, as his upside is nearly unmatched.
Unexpected Value:
Allen Lazard (GB)
The Green Bay Packers tend to always find at least one successful wide receiver that no one excepts to succeed. Allen Lazard played on 75% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in Week 16, earning 121 total air yards and catching 5-of-9 targets for 45 receiving yards. His aDOT surpassed 13 yards, and his air yards market share was 45%, which is very impressive considering DeVante Adams is still on the team.
In 2019, Lazard is finding a moderate amount of success. The undrafted, 24-year-old from Iowa State earned slightly under 600 total air yards, catching 31-of-44 targets for over 400 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. His air yards and target market share both were under 20%. He has plenty of room for improvement, but the Packers’ receiving core is too stacked to trust Lazard long-term. He eclipsed 100 receiving yards once this season, and with Aaron Rodgers behind center, his upside is definitely present.
This week, the Packers get a good matchup against the Detroit Lions. Lazard can be rostered in daily fantasy leagues, but in the fantasy football championship, avoid him unless absolutely necessary. In 2020, it is possible that Lazard earns himself a significant role in the Packers’ offense, but the NFL Draft could completely change the dynamic of Matt LaFleur’s squad. In dynasty leagues, he is worth a stash if the roster is deep.
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
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