All Aboard the John Brown Train for Week 4
Do you enjoy fantasy football? Like to place the odd bet?
Well, welcome to the profitable world of player prop betting, which brings the best of both worlds.
The good news about prop bets is that there a whole lot more edge for those willing to do the work. The bad news? The actual lines typically don’t get released by sports books until the day before – or day of – the games.
Thankfully, My Bookie offers the Props Builder, which allows us to custom build our own props, pitting player against player, ahead of the lines themselves being revealed.
Where to find H2H Props on MyBookie
Step 1: Click Props Builder
Step 2: Click H2H
Step 3: Click Add Player
Andy Dalton > Derek Carr, Passing Yards
2.5 Units to win 2.35 Units
On paper, Carr looks to have a very slight edge in passing yards department, although Carr has been much worse from a real football perspective.
Their adjusted yards per attempt figure may be near identical, but their match ups this week are most definitely not.
Dalton has yardage totals of 243, 265, and 352 so far, and he faces an Atlanta defense which has given up the 10th-most passing yards. The big difference between Week 1 and Week 3 for the Bengals? The absence of Joe Mixon means they don’t have a true behind-the-tackles runner to lean on.
No sweat, though. They do have Gio Bernard, which means their run game is now their passing game. Bernard commanded nine targets in a last week’s affair which saw them trail the whole way, and the Bengals are once again road underdogs in Atlanta.
About those Falcons — they’ve surrendered the second-most passing yards to RBs.
So while Dalton is likely to be throwing a ton in this one, Carr gets a match up with one of the most underrated units in the NFL.
The Browns defense has given up passing totals of 169, 243, and 335 to QBs. The 335 total came from a five-quarter, overtime game against Ben Roethlisberger, while the 243 total is from none other than Drew Brees, who was playing at home.
Their defense is legit; Carr is not.
John Brown > Michael Crabtree, Receiving Yards
3 Units to Win 2.25 Units
We’ve been smashing this same bet every week so far, and we’ll keep doing so until odds makers wake up the the fact that John Brown is not only the No. 1 WR on the Ravens, he’s also become of one of the most valuable WRs in the league.
Over the past two weeks, no one in football has more Air Yards than Brown.
|Name||Tar||Rec||Rec Yards||Air Yards||aDOT||RACR||MS Air||Target Share||WOPR|
Brown’s Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) is 30 percent higher than Crabtree’s, and his average depth of target is more than double. Combine that with a similar number of targets, and you’ve arrived in value town.
Both get to test a sieve-like Steelers defense on Sunday night, but it’s Brown with the better matchup. Outside WRs have lit up Pittsburgh, with four of them going over 90 yards in just three games.
John Brown > Nelson Agholor, Receiving Yards
2 Units to win 1.5 Units
Brown is far too undervalued, and we’ll be plugging him into a few head-to-head prop bets this week.
Another match up that stands out is vs Nelson Agholor, who went from leading the team with 22 targets in the first two weeks, to just five targets in Week 3 when Carson Wentz returned.
He has yardage totals of 33, 88, 24 through three weeks, and if we would have bet these two in head-to-heads every week, we’d be 3-0.
Agholor has been steadily losing opportunity and, barring a lucky play, doesn’t have the explosiveness to keep pace with Brown.
Antonio Callaway > Pierre Garcon, Receiving Yards
1.5 Units to Win 1.76 Units
Given Garcon’s recent form, we’ll happily take the plus odds on this bet.
The 49ers WR looks utterly cooked, failing to beat any cornerbacks en route to receiving lines of 21, 57, and 11 yards so far. The outlook only gets worse, as he gets a major QB downgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo to C.J. Beathard.
Callaway, meanwhile, is a big play waiting to happen, as he led the league in Air Yards in Week 3.
Baker Mayfield took multiple shots downfield to the rookie, who has the third-fastest speed recorded among all players at 21.47 MPH, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
They didn’t connect on many of those deep attempts, but the opportunity is there in what should be a revamped Browns offense under Mayfield, while the 49ers and Garcon are trending the opposite way.
Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter, where we’ll be posting all our player prop bets throughout the weekend.
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