Reception Collection – Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers
This is a situation where I’m simply taking targets. Davante Adams has been an elite option for the Green Bay Packers, specifically over the last four weeks. Over that span, he’s averaging 13.8 targets (8.5 receptions) per game. Adams has the chance to break multiple receiving records for Green Bay, and he should be peppered with targets once again this weekend. Kenny Golladay hasn’t been the most consistent option recently, but he has totaled 8+ targets in six of his last seven games. In those games, he’s averaging 10.1 targets (5.3 receptions) per game. He gets a great matchup this week, and Golladay will continue to be the focal point of the Detroit Lions passing attack. Jamaal Williams has taken over at running back for the Packers, and he should be a consistent source of receptions. He has seen 14 targets over the last two weeks, recording 10 receptions. He’ll be a workhorse for them again, and he should see similar receptions in this game. Over the spans mentioned, this trio is averaging 28.9 targets per game, and Adams has the potential to record double-digit receptions himself in this matchup.
Play $50 on Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, and Kenny Golladay OVER 19.5 receptions to win $100 (2x)
Rush Hour – Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens
Similarly to last week, I’m attacking the Baltimore Ravens rushing game again. In six starts, Gus Edwards is averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has also taken on a large role in the run game since joining the starting lineup. He’s averaging 77.7 rushing yards per game over that span. Overall, this duo is combining for 174.0 rushing yards per game since they both entered the starting lineup together. Cleveland also ranks as a below average run defense in yards per carry (4.5) and rushing yards (124.5) per game. Baltimore has featured an elite run defense, ranking in the top-five of the NFL in yards per carry (3.8) and rushing yards (85.1) per game. He has been one of the best running backs in the NFL since taking the starting job, though, and I’m not overly worried about this rushing total. In nine games as the lead back, Chubb is averaging 88.8 rushing yards on 18.6 carries per game. He has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games, and he could find similar success again this week.
Play $50 on Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Nick Chubb OVER 231.5 yards to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 5/5 – Carolina Panthers/New Orleans Saints
I don’t necessarily believe Kyle Allen is a good quarterback, but at one point in time he was the QB1 in his recruiting class. He completed four passes in his last game for 38 yards. It’s far too small of a sample size to use, but shows that he can find some success in the NFL. He also gets a matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who are allowing 269.0 passing yards per game. On the other hand, the Carolina Panthers have allowed 249.0 passing yards per game this season. I don’t expect Drew Brees to play more than a couple drives, leaving nearly the entire game for Teddy Bridgewater to find success. He has found plenty of success in the NFL before, and this is a matchup he can take advantage of. Similarly to Brees, I simply don’t expect Michael Thomas to play more than a couple drives, leading to the under. If Christian McCaffrey plays, he’s a near lock for more than five receptions. He has 6+ receptions in each of his last six games, and Allen will likely check the ball down quite a bit in this game. Carolina has featured a solid run defense this season, and I don’t believe Dwayne Washington is a solid NFL player. He’ll likely split snaps, and 43.5 yards is a bit too high to project the over in this situation.
Play $20 on Kyle Allen OVER 202.5 passing yards, Teddy Bridgewater OVER 144.5 passing yards, Michael Thomas UNDER 54.5 receiving yards, Christian McCaffrey OVER 5.5 receptions, and Dwayne Washington UNDER 43.5 rushing yards to win $300 (15x)