Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 4 – UPDATED)

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Quarterbacks

Cash

Once again, I’m looking for the rushing floor of my cash game quarterbacks. Josh Allen is coming off of a 40.22 DK point performance with needing only 9 rushing yards, although he did have a rushing touchdown. He gets a matchup against the Houston Texans, who’ve featured a surprisingly good pass defense early this season. I don’t expect that to continue against the versatility of the Buffalo Bills passing attack, though, and Allen ranking in the top-10 of the NFL in red zone carries this season is an added bonus.

Jalen Hurts is coming off what many are referring to as an awful game, yet he posted 25.54 DK points. He’s an elite fantasy option because of his elite rushing potential, although that success isn’t quite recognized at this point. Hurts gets a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing 269.7 passing yards per game and 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt this season. Hurts isn’t priced at the top of the position, but he’s less than 5 DK points per game away from the QB3. Patrick Mahomes is another quarterback playing well enough to be considered in cash games this week. He’s currently our Projections Portals’ highest-graded option in terms of Karma Value.

GPP

This feels like the perfect time to go back to Justin Fields. He struggled at higher ownership last week, meaning he could go overlooked this weekend. Fields gets a matchup against Detroit Lions, who are allowing a league-high 11.4 adjusted yards per attempt to go along with 269.7 passing yards per game and an 8.3% touchdown rate. Keep in mind, Fields is questionable for this game, so check back for the update on Friday in this article. Taylor Heinicke’s started his last 2 games, averaging 23.7 DK points per game in those contests. He comes with rushing potential, and he gets a great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have given up the fourth-most air yards (531) in the NFL this season while allowing a 7.5% touchdown rate. Heinicke boasts QB1 upside for far too cheap of a price tag.

There are a few other elite quarterback options on this slate. Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray are facing off in a game that could end up being the highest-scoring on the slate. Both are leaders of their offenses, and they each possess tremendous upside. Russell Wilson is in a great matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, and he’s another high-priced option for tournaments on this slate. Although the matchup isn’t necessarily elite, Kirk Cousins continues to flash as an ultra-efficient option without getting the price bump. Other options I’d consider on this slate include Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold, and Matt Ryan.

UPDATE

Surprisingly, quarterback hasn’t changed much at this point in the week. I still feel relatively strongly about Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes as the top options in cash games. Taylor Heinicke is a cheaper option who sticks out, though. Although I believe he comes with more risk than the trio before him, he gets an elite matchup against Atlanta, and he’s performed well when given full opportunities. He’s a player that can slide into the cash game conversation on this slate.

My tournament pool is still essentially who’s listed above. The more the week moves on, the more Matt Ryan climbs my rankings, though. Keep in mind, he isn’t my top tournament option. The only option that I’d consider adding is Ryan Tannehill. He’s still well below the options above, but he’s in an interesting spot without AJ Brown or Julio Jones this weekend. He’ll go completely overlooked with Derrick Henry garnering elite ownership, but Tannehill will still boast upside, especially with his rushing ability.

Running Backs

Cash

There’s one player that sits well above everyone else in cash games, and he’s locked into your RB1 this week – Derrick Henry. Henry’s been a massive part of the offense, recording 67 carries over his last 2 games. More importantly, he’s seen 13 targets through 3 games. Henry gets an interesting matchup against the New York Jets, who have given up 5 rushing touchdowns this season. Davin Cook (if healthy) and Alvin Kamara are two more high-priced running backs who can be used as your RB2 or flex this weekend.

The Los Angeles Rams running back situation is one to monitor this week. Darrell Henderson will make an outstanding option if he’s back to a full role. If he’s out again, unfortunately, Sony Michel will be viable in cash games. If they are both playing but Henderson is on some type of limit, this will likely turn into a situation to avoid. If one gets a full role, they get a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are allowing 140.7 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry this season. Chris Carson and Antonio Gibson are two more options that can be considered in cash games, specifically depending on how injuries shake out on this slate.

GPP

It’s tough to get away from Nick Chubb on this slate. He gets a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who are allowing the fourth-most yards per carry (4.8) to opposing running backs this season. He’ll continue to see low ownership with Kareem Hunt taking such a large role. Still, Chubb saw 22 carries last week, and he ranks fifth in the NFL in red zone carries. It’s only a matter of time before he flashes elite upside. Chuba Hubbard will take over as the lead back for the Carolina Panthers with Christian McCaffrey out. DraftKings did well to price him up, although he’s still a bit too cheap. He saw 11 carries and 5 targets after CMC was injured, and it’s clear he’ll slide into the McCaffrey role in this offense. Hubbard could get some ownership on this slate, but it likely won’t be nearly as high as it should, especially in a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

Jonathan Taylor continues to see plenty of opportunities, and he gets a great matchup against the Miami Dolphins this week. Taylor leads the NFL in red zone carries and carries inside-the-5, yet he hasn’t scored a touchdown. He’s due for positive touchdown regression, and this is a great matchup for it. If Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are out again, Najee Harris is an elite option after recording 19 targets last week. Even if one of the two plays, I’m willing to take a shot on Harris. Davis Montgomery’s always in play when Chicago is the favorite, as he can take on a workhorse role for the Bears. He’s in play against the Detroit Lions. I’m also considering Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Mike Davis at the moment.

UPDATE

Running back’s an interesting position this weekend. Derrick Henry is the clear-cut cash game option. He’s the first player you want to lock into your lineups on this slate. If you want to spend up on a second running back, Alvin Kamara’s taken over for Dalvin Cook. He’s the best option to pair with Henry, while Cook (or Alexander Mattison) is better suited for GPPs. If you want to save a bit of salary with your RB2, David Montgomery is sticking out as an elite option in cash games in a plus matchup against Detroit. Assuming he’s healthy, Darrell Henderson continues to make a solid option, along with Chris Carson and Antonio Gibson.

I’m holding firm on my tournament options at this position. Melvin Gordon is questionable, and Javonte Williams would become an interesting option if he’s the sole running back for Denver. I don’t necessarily believe he’d be a must in cash games, although you’d be able to consider him. If he would gain ownership in that situation, Trey Sermon would become an interesting leverage option at the same price tag.

Wide Receivers

Cash

Once again, Cooper Kupp could be the highest owned receiver on the slate. He isn’t an easy plug-and-play since he’s finally priced as one of the most expensive receivers on the slate. With that being said, this game could quickly turn into a shootout, and Kupp is the top option for the Los Angeles Rams. D.J. Moore’s looked outstanding this season, as he’s the clear leader for the Carolina Panthers receiving group. He gets a great matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, and Moore should continue to see plenty of usage with Christian McCaffrey out.

Deebo Samuel makes an outstanding option for San Francisco this season. He’s seen plenty of air yards early on, and he gets a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who’ve given up the fifth-most air yards (527) in the NFL this season. Samuel’s averaging 10 targets per game, and he’s a great option in this matchup. You can also spend up on Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill in cash games, as well. If you need to save salary in cash, Robert Woods is likely the top option followed by Courtland Sutton.

GPP

I’m willing to pair Fields with either Darnell Mooney or Allen Robinson. Robinson’s the bigger focal point of the offense, although I lean toward Mooney for his price tag this week. He’s an elite deep threat in the NFL, and the Detroit Lions have struggled to contain receivers throughout the season. Calvin Ridley is another option that comes with tremendous upside in this matchup. The Washington Football Team’s given up a league-high 586 air yards this season. Ridley’s been an elite deep threat for the Atlanta Falcons, and he’s a player that’s gone a bit overlooked due to offensive struggles for Atlanta. He’s one of my favorite GPP options on this slate.

With D.J. Moore getting the ownership for Carolina and them possibly making it a point to get Robby Anderson the ball this week, he’s an elite tournament option against the Dallas Cowboys. On the other side, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are great GPP plays. There are some other dominant wide receiver pairings that can be used this week, as well, including DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett or Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. DeAndre Hopkins could be playing in the highest-scoring game of the week, and he’s going overlooked at the moment. Corey Davis and Tim Patrick are two more GPP options that stand out as viable this weekend, as well.

UPDATE

There are three receivers that stand above the rest in cash games – Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, and Davante Adams. This is the trio that you should specifically be looking for in cash games. I also feel comfortable using Deebo Samuel in cash, as well. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out, Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will make reasonable options for near minimum price tags. Once again, Robert Woods and Tyreek Hill can be considered here.

I’m still considering all of the options above in GPPs. I’ll be adding to my potential pool, though. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel on the opposite side of Ridley make great options. You can also consider Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore if you’re looking for boom or bust options in GPPs. Keep in mind, selecting the proper WRs will also have to do with what QB you opt to use.